Drought Information Statement for New Hampshire and Western Maine August 27, 2026 Issued By: NWS Gray Maine Contact Information: gyx.skywarn@noaa.gov Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/ for regional drought status updates. Weekly updates to the US Drought Monitor can be found at droughtmonitor.unl.edu Current Status: Persistent deficits in precipitation have lead to an expansion of Severe Drought (D2), Moderate Drought (D1) and Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions in Maine and New Hampshire. Meanwhile, localized summer rainfall brought minor relief and localized improvements to select southern and central areas of the region. Outlook: Drought persistence expected into fall Recent Change in Drought Intensity DROUGHT CHANGES Over the last month drought coverage area has expanded across both Maine and New Hampshire Short Term Drought Index The Short-Term Multi-Indicator Drought Index (MIDI) estimates current short-term drought conditions by combining several indicators of drought into a single map reflecting changes in precipitation and moisture over the past 3 months. This experimental map is based on methodology from the NOAA National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center. Available for download on New Hampshire | Drought.gov or www.drought.gov/states/Maine. Long Term Drought Index The Long-Term Multi-Indicator Drought Index (MIDI) estimates current long-term drought conditions by combining several indicators of drought into a single map from changes in precipitation and moisture over the past 5 years. Precipitation Deficits- Regional View Maps of Departures from Normal by County Auto loads from NERFC Precipitation Totals and Departures from Normal Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts USGS Streamgage and Well Status Streamflow Relative to Normal Monthly streamflow averages show near normal in NH but are below to much below in Maine and parts of Northern NH. Groundwater Deficits Groundwater recharge lags behind with lingering significant deficits in parts of Maine and New Hampshire. Groundwater Levels Current Assessment Several groundwater monitoring wells are Below to Much Below Normal across the region. Medium Range Outlooks TEMPERATURE Temperatures are favoring above normal for the end of next week into week 2. PRECIPITATION Precipitation outlooks are favoring above normal, especially the end of next week. Auto update Long-Range Outlook Fall outlooks favor below normal precipitation, and continue the above normal temperatures. Source: Climate Prediction Center www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) Current Strength & Outlook El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27. The CPC Official ENSO outlook indicates there is a 69% chance of a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950. Historical Winter Impacts (ME & NH) Strong to Very Strong events historically deliver above-normal winter temperatures and precipitation: • Storm Type & Precipitation Higher proportion of winter storms produce rain/sleet/freezing rain rather than long-lasting dry snow, particularly in coastal and southern valleys. • Repeated Snowpack Melt Periods of mild temperatures between weather systems often cause existing snowpack to melt repeatedly throughout the season. • Runoff & Hydrologic Recharge Frequent runoff events favor robust surface water replenishment (lakes, reservoirs, streamflows), while shallow ground frost aids deep groundwater recharge. Net Drought Outlook Even with expectations of a deficient seasonal snowpack, the net hydrologic impact is often favorable for reducing drought. Source: Climate Prediction Center | www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts: Regional streamflows, lake levels, seasonal wetlands, and storage reservoirs are experiencing widespread drops due to a combination of seasonal midsummer drawdown, diminished surface runoff, and heightened water demand. Aquifer Deficits: Groundwater recharge continues to lag across the region, maintaining significant, lingering storage deficits in both states. Multiple monitoring wells across New Hampshire and Maine are currently reading Below Normal to Much Below Normal compared to historical climatological baselines. Low water tables are compounded by multi-year precipitation deficits and depleted baseline levels carried over from previous dry seasons. The number of dry wells has shown an uptick in August. Agricultural Impacts: Reduced soil moisture has forced farmers to expand irrigation. Apple orchards and blueberry fields have reportedly shown visible moisture stress, field corn exhibits stunted growth, and perennial gardens are wilting. Severe dryness is triggering premature leaf drop in some maples and wild apple trees. Pasture growth has stalled in many areas, forcing dairy producers to begin supplemental hay feeding ahead of schedule. Agricultural and rural communities are actively mitigating water shortages by hauling water for livestock, curtailing non-essential outdoor and indoor water use, and managing low or dry domestic and agricultural wells. Mitigation Actions: Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Main Takeaways Bottom Line: Maine and New Hampshire continue to experience acute, localized drought expansion. Maine: 1 in 5 residents are in Severe Drought New Hampshire: Expanded D0 (Abnormally Dry) across Coos County Unlike last year’s fast-moving "flash drought," current conditions stem from a slower, cumulative deficit caused by lingering low precipitation and lagging groundwater recharge. While overall impacts on residents and farms remain less severe than last August, dry wells and agricultural stress have been rising steadily over the past few weeks. OUTLOOK- Ongoing Drought through late Summer and Fall Short-term Forecasts through late August indicate occasional showers and below-normal basin runoff, making near-term recovery unlikely. Pattern set-up is favorable for a moderate rain event mid to next week, but extent of rainfall and if it occurs in the harder hit drought areas is still uncertain. Groundwater wells throughout the region remain significantly below average, elevating the risk of private well failures as the summer progresses into fall. Without persistent, widespread soaking rains, standard late-summer/fall seasonal drawdowns will cause drought conditions to persist or expand. Note: Groundwater levels reach climatological minimums in fall Upcoming winter conditions will be influenced by El Niño, which historical patterns suggest could net a net positive effect on precipitation and drought recovery. Gray-Portland, ME National Weather Service 8:38 AM Contact Information Web www.weather.gov/gyx Phone (public) (207) 688-3216 Email gyx.skywarn@noaa.gov PRIMARY: sarah.jamison@noaa.gov Facebook NWSGray Twitter @NWSGray Mandatory! Update the next briefing information. If this is the last briefing, replace the first bullet with “This is the last update unless conditions warrant.” and delete the “Method” bullet. The Disclaimer date and time should be approximately 12 hours from the current briefing or less.