Printable ProductProvided by - NWS Southern Region HQ - Print 000 FXUS64 KHGX 092035 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 335 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2008 .DISCUSSION... SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THIS REGION OF THE COUNTRY INVOLVED A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF AND A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE OVER NE TX. AT 21Z...IKE WAS JUST MOVING OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN CUBA INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE OVER THE PACIFIC COAST THE UPPER TROUGH WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. THE MODELS WERE TRENDING CLOSER IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE UPPER PATTERN EVOLUTION. WHEN IT COMES TO PLANNING...STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST ERROR CONE FROM NHC. SEE THE MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DISCUSSION ON THE MODELS. THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED POPS IN PLACE THIS EVENING OVER THE NORTH. AS IKE GETS CLOSER... THE SUBSIDENCE ZONE AHEAD OF THE STORM WILL LIKELY LIMIT RAIN CHANCES. ON FRIDAY...RAIN BANDS AROUND THE STORM MAY BEGIN BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE MARINE ZONES AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAND AREAS. LATER ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE MAIN AFFECTS OF IKE WILL BE FELT. OF COURSE...ITS EVENTUAL TRACK WILL DETERMINE THOSE AFFECTS. AFTER THE WEEKEND...A DRYING TREND IS INDICATED BY THE MODELS. KEPT THE ISOLATED POPS IN PLACE OVER THE LAST FEW PERIODS OF THE FORECAST. 40 && .MARINE... TODAYS MODELS (BOTH GLOBAL AND HURRICANE) ARE QUITE CONCERNING AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY COMING MORE IN LINE WITH LAST NIGHTS AND TODAYS MORE NWD ECMWF FCST. KUDOS TO THE MIDNIGHT MARINE FCSTER THAT ALREADY HAD THE FCST TRENDED THAT WAY. MODELS CAN AND PROBABLY WILL CHANGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS CONDITIONS EVOLVE. CURRENTLY THERE APPEARS TO BE 2 CRITICAL TIME PERIODS BETWEEN NOW AND LANDFALL THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EVENTUAL TRACK. FIRST, WHEN/WHERE/IF THE MORE LEFTWARD JAUNT IN THE CNTL GULF OCCURS. SECOND, WHEN/IF IKE STARTS FEELING THE AFFECTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH COMING IN FROM THE WEST. LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THERE COULD BE A SHARP NORTHWARD TURN AS THE STORM MOVES INTO THE TX COASTAL WATERS AND FEELS THE TROUGH. BUT WHERE? WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE SOME HEAVY WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF WITH THE EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FCST. BUT...AS ALWAYS IN THESE SITUATIONS...THERE WILL BE RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CHANGES - SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LARGE SWINGS. THAT`S WHY THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY IS IMPORTANT. BASED ON THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK...STILL LOOKS LIKE HIGHER PERIOD SWELLS START ARRIVING WED NIGHT AND INCREASE IN SIZE WITH TIME. IN ADDITION...WITH THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN E/NE WINDS WATER LEVELS WILL BE ON THEIR WAY UP AND A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET - POSSIBLY NEEDING TO ISSUE ONE AS EARLY AS WED AFTN. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL BE RUNNING 2.4 FEET AT THE BEACHES DURING THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK AND IT WON`T TAKE MUCH FOR US TO HIT THE IMPORTANT 4.0-4.5FT MARK NEEDED FOR PROBLEMS. 47 && .AVIATION... ISO/SCT PRECIP SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. EXCEPTION MIGHT BE ACROSS NRN TERMINALS (CLL, UTS) WHERE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS FOR SPOTTY SHRA OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE THE USUAL SCT MVFR CIGS/FOG OVERNIGHT ACROSS INLAND AREAS. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS FCST TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH WED MORNING. PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME ISO AFTN PRECIP...BUT ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 74 94 75 95 76 / 20 20 10 10 10 HOUSTON (IAH) 74 94 76 95 77 / 20 20 10 20 10 GALVESTON (GLS) 80 89 80 89 80 / 10 20 10 20 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...40 AVIATION/MARINE...47