Printable ProductProvided by - NWS Southern Region HQ - Print 000 FXUS64 KHGX 100906 CCA AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 404 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2008 .DISCUSSION... HURRICANE IKE HAS EMERGED INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ON A NW TRACK AND IS TRYING TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED. WARMER GULF WATERS SHOULD HELP IT DO THAT OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. IKE IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING OVER MUCH OF THE GULF COAST. IKE SHOULD BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE WHICH WILL HELP IT TURN MORE TO THE WEST. CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST HURRICANE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS TO BE THE MORE LIKELY TRACK. OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...SEEMS THAT THE 00Z ECMWF HAS INITIALIZED THE RIDGE AND IKE THE BEST WITH THE GFS FAIRLY CLOSE AS WELL. THE MODELS BRING IKE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE TX COAST WITH THE GFS HAVING LAND FALL OF IKE CLOSER TO CRP. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT TOWARDS MATAGORDA BAY. THE MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE LANDFALL TIMING TO BE MORE FRI NIGHT POSSIBLY AROUND MIDNIGHT. LATEST NHC TRACK LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS BUT MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS. AT THIS POINT...THE ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION SO THE FORECAST WILL BE MORE OF A BLEND OF IT AND THE NHC TRACK FOR IKE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE INCREASED ACROSS ALL OF SE TX BUT MAINLY TO THE SW AROUND MATAGORDA BAY AFTER 00Z SAT THROUGH 00Z SUN. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE MENTIONED AS WELL IN ADDITION TO ANY TROPICAL PROBABILISTIC WORDING. PLEASE SEE THE ADVISORIES FROM NHC FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT IKE AND ITS FORECAST. THE GFS AFTER LAND FALL CONTINUES IKE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK WHERE THE ECMWF TAKES IKE NORTH INTO CENTRAL TX. THE GFS NOW FAILS TO BRING THROUGH A COLD FRONT WHICH STILL SURGES SOUTH ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF. THE FORECAST REMAINS IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF FOR THE MOST PART BUT WILL LEAVE IN SOME SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ISSUANCE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS MAY BE SLOWED DUE TO USING TCM WINDS FOR HURRICANE IKE IN THE FORECAST. 39 && .AVIATION... STILL HAVE A WEAK BOUNDARY LINGERING NEAR THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING. FEEL THAT AREA COULD GET ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. WILL PROBABLY STICK WITH CB`S IN AREA TAFS WITH MVFR FOG THIS MORNING YIELDING TO A SCT 4-5000 FT DECK THIS AFTERNOON. 43 && .MARINE... IKE LOOKS TO BE GETTING HIS ACT TOGETHER AS A NEW EYE WAS BEGINNING TO FORM. IKE WILL CONTINUE ON A W-NW TRACK AND SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL BETWEEN PORT ARANSAS AND FREEPORT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. TPC TRACK HAS LANDFALL NEAR PORT O CONNOR. STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AS SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS SHUNT THE STORM A LITTLE EAST TOWARD MATAGORDA. EITHER WAY...LIGHT WINDS TODAY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AM EXPECTING A RAPID RISE IN SEAS BEGINNING THURSDAY AS SWELLS BUILD INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS. HAVE INCREASED SEA HEIGHTS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF IKE. INCREASED SEA HEIGHTS TO NEAR 30 FEET AT BUOY 019 EARLY SATURDAY. WILL USE TCM WIND GRIDS BUT FEEL THE ECMWF WINDS LOOK REASONABLE. TIDES WILL BECOME AN ISSUE. PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TIDE LEVELS BEGINNING THURSDAY AND BUILDING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AM EXPECTING A HURRICANE WATCH TO BE HOISTED BY THURSDAY SO WILL HOLD OFF ON A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH. PREVIOUS DAY SHIFT FORECASTER FOUND A MAP OF HIGH WATER MARKS FROM 08/29/42 STORM WHICH IS TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK TO IKE. WATER MARKS REACHED 14.7 FT AT MATAGORDA...11 FEET AT FREEPORT AND 6.3 FEET AT GALVESTON. 43 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 93 75 96 77 92 / 20 10 10 10 30 HOUSTON (IAH) 94 76 95 78 90 / 20 10 10 10 40 GALVESTON (GLS) 90 80 90 81 87 / 10 10 10 20 60 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...39 AVIATION/MARINE...43