Printable ProductProvided by - NWS Southern Region HQ - Print 000 FXUS64 KHGX 101618 AAA AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED MARINE DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1120 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2008 .DISCUSSION... WHILE THERE WERE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE TRACK OF IKE...THERE WERE SOME TWEAKS TO THE PROGGED WIND FIELDS WITH THE LAST FCST PACKAGE. HAVE ALSO ADDED THE MENTION OF ISOLATED POPS TO THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT/TRENDS CURRENTLY SEEN ON RADAR. 41 && .MARINE... HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST NHC FORECAST WINDS FOR IKE. SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM THURSDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THE 20 TO 60 NM WATERS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY AND OVER THE 00 TO 20 NM WATERS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER ALL THE WATERS BY EARLY FRIDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN WATERS INCLUDING MATAGORDA BAY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS WILL PEAK FRI NIGHT AT 10-20 FT NEARSHORE... 20-30 FT OFFSHORE. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SEAS DROPPING BELOW SCA LEVEL SUN NIGHT. 35 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2008/ HURRICANE IKE HAS EMERGED INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ON A NW TRACK AND IS TRYING TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED. WARMER GULF WATERS SHOULD HELP IT DO THAT OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. IKE IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING OVER MUCH OF THE GULF COAST. IKE SHOULD BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE WHICH WILL HELP IT TURN MORE TO THE WEST. CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST HURRICANE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS TO BE THE MORE LIKELY TRACK. OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...SEEMS THAT THE 00Z ECMWF HAS INITIALIZED THE RIDGE AND IKE THE BEST WITH THE GFS FAIRLY CLOSE AS WELL. THE MODELS BRING IKE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE TX COAST WITH THE GFS HAVING LAND FALL OF IKE CLOSER TO CRP. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT TOWARDS MATAGORDA BAY. THE MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE LANDFALL TIMING TO BE MORE FRI NIGHT POSSIBLY AROUND MIDNIGHT. LATEST NHC TRACK LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS BUT MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS. AT THIS POINT...THE ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION SO THE FORECAST WILL BE MORE OF A BLEND OF IT AND THE NHC TRACK FOR IKE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE INCREASED ACROSS ALL OF SE TX BUT MAINLY TO THE SW AROUND MATAGORDA BAY AFTER 00Z SAT THROUGH 00Z SUN. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE MENTIONED AS WELL IN ADDITION TO ANY TROPICAL PROBABILISTIC WORDING. PLEASE SEE THE ADVISORIES FROM NHC FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT IKE AND ITS FORECAST. THE GFS AFTER LAND FALL CONTINUES IKE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK WHERE THE ECMWF TAKES IKE NORTH INTO CENTRAL TX. THE GFS NOW FAILS TO BRING THROUGH A COLD FRONT WHICH STILL SURGES SOUTH ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF. THE FORECAST REMAINS IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF FOR THE MOST PART BUT WILL LEAVE IN SOME SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF THE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. ISSUANCE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS MAY BE SLOWED DUE TO USING TCM WINDS FOR HURRICANE IKE IN THE FORECAST. 39 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 93 75 96 77 92 / 20 20 10 10 30 HOUSTON (IAH) 94 76 95 78 90 / 20 20 10 10 40 GALVESTON (GLS) 89 80 90 81 87 / 20 20 10 20 60 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$