Printable ProductProvided by - NWS Southern Region HQ - Print 000 FXUS64 KHGX 110322 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1022 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008 .DISCUSSION... JUST A FEW WEAKENING SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LINGER IN AND AROUND THE MADISON-HOUSTON COUNTY LINE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY. NO FORECAST UPDATE IS NEEDED FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING. THERE STILL REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE TRACK OF HURRICANE IKE. THE 03Z FORECAST HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT. THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TRACKS FOR IKE MAKING THE GUESS AS TO WHERE LANDFALL WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO MAKE AT THIS TIME. AFTER RESUMING A WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE TONIGHT...WHERE AND WHEN IKE DECIDES TO HIT THE COAST ON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON WHEN ITS CURVE TO THE NORTHWEST OCCURS. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT LANDFALL LOCATION...IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH STRONG WINDS EXTENDING FAR AWAY FROM THE CENTER. PLEASE CONSULT OUR HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT FOR MORE DETAILS AND ALL OF THE PARTICULARS ON THIS DEVELOPING HURRICANE EVENT. 42 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 845 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008/ DISCUSSION... MAIN FCST ISSUE FOR SE TX REMAINS THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF IKE. THE LATEST FCST TRACK IS MAKING THINGS A BIT MORE UNCOMFORTABLE HERE AS THE STORM STRENGTHENS/NEARS. FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE KEEP- ING THE MENTION OF ISOLATED POPS IN THE GRIDS...WITH SIGNIFICANT INCREASES BY FRI AS THE RAINBANDS FROM IKE MOVES ONSHORE. AS FOR TEMPS...ANOTHER WARMISH DAY TOMORROW BEFORE THE CLOUDS/PCPN HELP TO LOWER THEM FOR FRI-SUN. FAIRLY DECENT CONSENSUS OF MODELS FOR ITS TRACK OF IKE TOWARD MATAGORDA BAY/MATAGORDA COUNTY EARLY SAT MORNING. BUT AS ALWAYS THERE IS A CERTAIN ELEMENT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH STORMS...AND A SHIFT OF EVEN 25 MILES TO EITHER SIDE OF THE CURRENT TRACK WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS. FOR NOW WE ARE LOOKING AT LANDFALL OF A MAJOR (AND VERY LARGE) HURRICANE INTO OUR CWA THIS FCST CYCLE. AS FOR THE REST OF THE FCST...DECREASED WINDS/POPS SUN AND ON IN TO NEXT WEEK. ECMWF (WHICH HAS BEEN THE FAVORITE OF LATE) INDIC- ATES A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MON WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER/ MORE SEASONAL TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE GFS HAS GONE WITH MUCH WETTER/WARMER GUIDANCE NUMBERS AS THE RIDGE HOLDS OVER SERN STATES. THIS KEEPS A SWATH OF HIGH PWS (AOA 2") ACROSS SE TX ALL NEXT WEEK...AND (AS SUCH) HIGHER POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR MAINLY AFTN AND EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY. BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP WITH THE ECMWF TRENDS. 41 AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MAY BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR VISIBILITIES DURING PRE-DAWN HOURS AT CXO AND LBX. LIGHT EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE PREVALENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. 44 MARINE... HURRICANE IKE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE GULF. IKE WILL CONTINUE ON A W-NW TRACK AND IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL BETWEEN PORT ARANSAS AND FREEPORT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE CURRENT TPC TRACK HAS LANDFALL NEAR PORT LAVACA...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AS SEVERAL KEY MODELS HAVE YET TO LOCK IN TO A SOLID SOLUTION WITH THE STORM. EITHER WAY...LIGHT WINDS TODAY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND TO HURRICANE FORCE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS SHOULD RAPIDLY BEGIN TO RISE ON THURSDAY AS SWELLS FAR IN ADVANCE OF IKE BUILD INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR 30 FEET AT BUOY 019 BY EARLY SATURDAY. TIDAL LEVELS LATE THIS WEEK WILL BE AN ISSUE. PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TIDE LEVELS BEGINNING NOW AND CONTINUING ON INTO THE WEEKEND. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT... SO THIS COVERS ANY COASTAL FLOOD WATCH. FRIDAY...WORSE CASE SCENARIO SURGE OF 12 TO 18 FEET IS ANTICIPATED IN THE MATAGORDA BAY VICINITY. COASTAL AREAS FROM MATAGORDA BAY TO SAN LUIS PASS CAN EXPECT SURGE LEVELS OF UP TO 14 FEET. THE COASTAL AREAS OF GALVESTON AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES INCLUDING GALVESTON BAY CAN EXPECT LEVELS AS LOW AS 5 FEET UP THE COAST FROM THE BOLIVAR JETTIES...TO AS HIGH AS 11 FEET TOWARDS THE BRAZORIA-GALVESTON COUNTY LINE. 31/44 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 96 77 91 78 / 20 20 20 50 60 HOUSTON (IAH) 76 95 78 89 78 / 20 20 20 60 70 GALVESTON (GLS) 80 90 81 86 81 / 20 20 20 70 70 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS... GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MATAGORDA. GM...HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY... MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE...42/31/45/46/DH