Printable ProductProvided by - NWS Southern Region HQ - Print 000 FXUS64 KHGX 111559 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1059 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008 .DISCUSSION... JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FCST THIS MORNING AS WE ARE SEEING SOME ISOLATED PCPN OVER OUR SWRN COUNTIES. LOCAL 12Z SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH DERIVED SATELLITE DATA INDICATING DECENT PWS (AOA 2") OVER THE REGION. BUT OUR MAIN FOCUS HERE REMAINS IKE AND ITS TREK TOWARD SE TX. SO FAR NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT NHC TRACK AS THE ENTIRE CWA WILL BE UNDER THE GUN FOR THIS STORM. AS PER LATEST PROJECTIONS THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN AROUND NOON FRI OVER THE UPPER TX COAST. THIS SHOULD ALSO COINCIDE WITH THE ONSET OF POSSIBLY THE START OF THE SQUALLS FROM IKE. HOWEVER...AFTER ALL THAT BEING SAID PLEASE REFER TO OUR HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FOR MORE DETAILS. AS FOR THE FCST GRIDS AND SUCH...AGAIN NOT MANY CHANGES BEYOND TO- NIGHT AS FAR AS POPS/WATCHES/WARNINGS GO. ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP GIVEN THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SLIGHT SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF IKE. A QUICK LOOK AT INCOMING MODELS INDICATING THAT THE GFS IS BECOMING A MORE IN LINE WITH YESTERDAY`S ECMWF WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONT (ALBEIT A WEAK COOL ONE) IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM. MORE LATER. 41 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008/ ..HURRICANE WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS... LOOKING AT THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...HURRICANE IKE CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A WELL ORGANIZED HURRICANE. PRESSURES HAVE FALLEN TO 947MB PER THE LATEST VORTEX MESSAGE FROM RECON. SUSPECT THAT THE WINDS FIELDS WILL CATCH UP TO THE PRESSURES LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST NHC TRACK PRETTY MUCH IN LINE WITH CONSENSUS OF MODELS...MAYBE A TAD RIGHT. THIS IS VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF OR A TAD LEFT OF IT. THE 00Z GFS BRINGS IKE CLOSER TO MATAGORDA BEFORE TURNING. THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE FORECAST IS WHEN IKE TURNS MORE TO THE NW AND N. REGARDLESS MOST OF SE TX WILL FEEL THE IMPACTS OF IKE AND ISSUED A HURRICANE WIND WATCH FOR THE REST OF THE AREA MINUS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHICH WERE ALREADY UNDER A WATCH. WHEN WARNINGS ARE ISSUED...WE WILL FINE TUNE THE WARNINGS BETWEEN HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNINGS. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AND A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE NEEDED LATER. OVERALL...THERE WERE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OTHER THAN TO MAKE NECESSARY CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT TRACK OF IKE. IKE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE THROUGH E TX SAT INTO SUN. GFS/ECMWF ARE TRYING TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT AND RAIN CHANCES DROP OFF SUN THROUGH TUE. GFS HINTS AT POSSIBLY SOME RAIN BANDING THAT COULD AFFECT THE AREA WHERE PRECIP WATER IS GREATER THAN 2 INCHES. THE FORECAST HOLDS ON TO SOME 30 POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT POSSIBLE FOR THIS BANDING TO SET UP DIFFERENTLY AS IT DID FOR GUSTAV IN LOUISIANA. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES. FOR MORE LOCAL INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS AS WELL AS ANY BULLETINS FROM NHC. 39 MARINE... HURRICANE IKE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE GULF. IKE WILL CONTINUE ON A W-NW TRACK AND IS CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL BETWEEN PORT ARANSAS AND FREEPORT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE CURRENT TPC TRACK HAS LANDFALL NEAR PORT LAVACA...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AS SEVERAL KEY MODELS HAVE YET TO LOCK IN TO A SOLID SOLUTION WITH THE STORM. EITHER WAY...LIGHT WINDS TODAY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND TO HURRICANE FORCE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS SHOULD RAPIDLY BEGIN TO RISE ON THURSDAY AS SWELLS FAR IN ADVANCE OF IKE BUILD INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR 30 FEET AT BUOY 019 BY EARLY SATURDAY. TIDES LATE THIS WEEK WILL BE AN ISSUE. PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TIDE LEVELS BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING IN TO THE WEEKEND. A HURRICANE WARNING SHOULD BE HOISTED SOMETIME TODAY. DEPENDING ON THE FINAL TRACK AND INTENSITY...TIDES OF 12 TO 18 FEET ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE SHORELINE OF MATAGORDA BAY. COASTAL AREAS FROM MATAGORDA TO GALVESTON CAN EXPECT TIDES OF 10 TO 14 FEET. THE COASTAL AREAS OF GALVESTON AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES INCLUDING GALVESTON BAY CAN EXPECT TIDES OF 9 TO 12 FEET. 43 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 96 77 93 79 83 / 10 10 30 70 100 HOUSTON (IAH) 95 77 90 78 82 / 20 20 50 90 100 GALVESTON (GLS) 91 80 87 80 83 / 20 30 60 100 100 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS... GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MATAGORDA. HURRICANE WIND WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...COLORADO...FORT BEND... GRIMES...HOUSTON...MADISON...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON. GM...HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY... MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM. && $$