Printable ProductProvided by - NWS Southern Region HQ - Print 000 FXUS64 KHGX 120249 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 949 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008 .DISCUSSION... HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN ANTICIPATION OF HURRICANE IKE`S UPCOMING UPPER TEXAS COASTAL LANDFALL STILL ANTICIPATED FOR SOME TIME LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING AT 9 AM TOMORROW MORNING. WE ARE CURRENTLY CALLING FOR WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS WITH ISOLATED 6 TO 10 INCH AMOUNTS. THE VERY LARGE SIZE OF IKE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE EVENT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL. TIDE LEVELS ARE ALREADY RUNNING FROM 2.0 TO 2.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IN AND AROUND GALVESTON BAY...AND WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 9 FEET AT BUOY 42035 AND 12 FEET AT BUOY 42019. EXPECT A GRADUAL RISE IN THESE VALUES OVERNIGHT WITH A SIGNIFICANT RISE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO OUR HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT FOR THE LATEST EXPECTATIONS ON THIS IMPENDING HURRICANE EVENT. 42 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008/ DISCUSSION... LATEST NHC TRACK HAS SHIFTED A BIT MORE TO THE RIGHT...WHICH NOW PUTS THE WEST END OF GLS ISLAND IN THE SIGHTS OF IKE. RADAR ALSO PICKING UP ON SOME DEVELOPMENT DEVELOPING/MOVING EAST INTO SE TX THIS AFTN (IN PART FROM UNDER/AROUND THE SFC RIDGE OVER THE NERN STATES AND FLOW/MOISTURE FROM AROUND IKE). THIS RATHER FLAT OVER ALL PATTERN APPEARS TO BE GIVING MODELS SOME TROUBLES WITH INIT- IALIZATION/TRACK OF THE STORM. NONETHELESS THE BULK OF THE SHORT AND MID TERM FCSTS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON NHC OUTPUT. HIGH POPS TO PREVAIL AS WELL AS LOWER TEMPS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. THE PROGS FOR AFTER THE STORM SEEM TO BE COMING INTO BETTER CONSENSUS WHICH IS (AND HAS BEEN) MORE IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS ECMWF RUNS. THAT IS TO SAY WE SHOULD BE SEEING COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS BY LATE MON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COOL FRONT. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES PAN OUT...THE UPCOMING WEEK SHOULD BE A WHOLE LOT QUIETER (THAN IT HAS BEEN OF LATE ANYWAY). AND AS ALWAYS PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT (HLS) FROM OUR OFFICE FOR THE LATEST INFO ON IKE. 41 AVIATION... OUTLYING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IKE`S LARGE CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS WESTERN LOUISIANA. WE MAY INCLUDE VCSH FOR REST OF AFTERNOON FOR SOME TAF SITES. CB CLOUD GROUP WILL REMAIN FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE. WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST IN DIRECTION TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING WINDS LATE ESPECIALLY COASTAL SECTIONS INCLUDING GLS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT LBX. 37 MARINE... SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING OVERNIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS ALREADY PICKING UP WITH SWELL WAVES (14-15 SECONDS PD)PROPAGATING TOWARD OUR REGION. SEE LATEST HLSHGX FOR TIDE LEVEL FCST. WITH APPROACH OF IKE...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF CWFA MARINE AREA (ESPECIALLY SE PORTIONS) POSSIBLY INCREASING IN EXCESS OF 30 FT. WINDS DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY LOWERING WAVE HEIGHTS. 37 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 77 93 79 88 78 / 20 30 100 100 60 HOUSTON (IAH) 77 90 78 85 77 / 30 50 100 100 60 GALVESTON (GLS) 80 87 80 82 81 / 30 70 100 100 60 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS... GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MATAGORDA. FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 AM CDT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON... CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES... HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON... MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY... WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON. HURRICANE WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: FORT BEND...GRIMES...HOUSTON...MADISON... MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER... WALLER...WHARTON. TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...COLORADO... WASHINGTON. GM...HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY... MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE...42/31/45/46/DH