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000
FXUS64 KHGX 121535
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1035 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

.DISCUSSION...

 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IKE CLOSING IN ON THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST...

WINDS/WATER LEVELS HAVE BEGUN THEIR INCREASE THIS MORNING OVER OUR
CWFA IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF IKE. HOWEVER...AS OF YET NOT A
LOT OF PCPN THUS FAR. OVERALL NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO THE CUR-
RENT SET OF GRIDS AT THIS TIME AS THERE WERE NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH
THE NHC TRACK. EARLY LOOK AT THE INCOMING PROGS FOR THE POST STORM
PATTERN WOULD SEEM TO INDICATE THAT THERE IS BETTER CONSENSUS WITH
REGARD TO A COOL FRONT PASSAGE LATE SUN/EARLY MON. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008/
AT 4 AM...IKE IS ABOUT 265 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON. THE
STORM IS MOVING W-NW AT 12 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS BY 5 AM AND AFFECT THE COAST BY
11 AM. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE COAST BY 6 PM. PARTS
OF THE COAST WILL ENDURE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS FOR 8 TO 10 HOURS.
CURRENT TPC TRACK TAKES THE STORM RIGHT OVER GALVESTON ISLAND AS A
CATEGORY 3 STORM. RAIN CHANCES AND WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND
THESE PARAMETERS WILL REMAIN HIGH/STRONG THROUGH MID-DAY SATURDAY.
HAVE BEEFED UP QPF TOTALS AND WILL SEND OUT AN UPDATE FLOOD
STATEMENT REGARDING THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH. THE STORM SURGE WITH
THIS STORM IS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN A STORM OF THIS MAGNITUDE
SHOULD PRODUCE. THIS IS A DANGEROUS AND A POTENTIALLY LIFE
THREATENING WEATHER EVENT. PLEASE HEED ALL RECOMMENDATIONS FROM
LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. SEE TCPAT4 AND HLSHGX FOR
MORE DETAILS.

DEEP MOISTURE WILL LINGER BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS A COOL FRONT
APPROACHES SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE COAST LATE
SUNDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING FOR NEXT WEEK. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      93  79  87  78  85 /  40 100 100  60  60
HOUSTON (IAH)              90  78  84  77  84 /  60 100 100  60  60
GALVESTON (GLS)            87  80  82  81  82 /  70 100 100  60  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...
     GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MATAGORDA.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     HURRICANE WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: FORT BEND...GRIMES...HOUSTON...MADISON...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WHARTON.

     TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...COLORADO...
     WASHINGTON.

GM...HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...
     MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$