Printable ProductProvided by - NWS Southern Region HQ - Print 000 FXUS64 KHGX 130618 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 118 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008 .DISCUSSION... UPDATED FOR THE AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .AVIATION... MOST IF NOT ALL THE AIRPORTS ARE CLOSED BECAUSE OF IKE. DID SEND OUT A SET OF AVIATION FORECASTS TO MAINLY TIME THE WINDS ACROSS THE TERMINAL SITES. THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL BE THE MOVEMENT OF THE EYE AND EYEWALL ACROSS THE METRO HOUSTON AREA. ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE HAVE LIKELY OCCURRED OVER THE LAND AREAS NEAR THE COAST...THE CHANCE FOR HURRIANE FORCE GUSTS AND POSSIBLY SUSTAINED WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE SATELLITE IR AND THE RADAR HAS SHOWN THE BEST CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE STORM AND IT WILL BE TRAVELLING OVER GALVESTON BAY AND THE METRO HOUSTON AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 40 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008/ DISCUSSION... HURRICANE IKE AND ITS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF MOVING ONSHORE. STORM SURGE FLOODING LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND WILL POSE A DANGEROUS THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY ACROSS PORTIONS OF GALVESTON ISLAND AND IN AND AROUND THE GALVESTON BAY AREA. AREA CREEKS AND BAYOUS HAVE BEEN ON THE RISE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THEIR PEAK IS STILL SEVERAL HOURS AWAY. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH IKE`S RAIN BANDS WILL ONLY MAKE THE STORM SURGE FLOODING SITUATION WORSE. VERY STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS EXCEEDING HURRICANE FORCE WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. IKE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH AFTER MOVING INLAND. THREATS FROM IKE ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND EVENTUALLY COME TO AN END BY MID TO LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. 42 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008/ DISCUSSION... NRN FRINGES OF IKE HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE ASHORE WITH WINDS PICKING UP ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER STORM SURGE REMAINS THE MAIN FCST PROBLEM FOR OUR COASTAL AREAS WITH THIS PACKAGE. CURRENT PROJECTIONS WOULD SEEM TO INDICATE THAT HISTORIC LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE IF THESE FRCSTS DO PAN OUT. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT ISSUE OF NOTE WILL BE THE LIKELI- HOOD OF A TORNADO WATCH FOR ALL/PARTS OF THE CWA AS THE STORM GETS CLOSER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. LONG LIVED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE CWA TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT AS WELL. PLEASE REFER TO OUR HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT (HLS) FOR ALL THE LATEST INFORMATION AND UPDATES TO THIS VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THE FCST FOR THE LATTER STAGES OF OUR FCST (I.E. POST-IKE LANDFALL TIME PERIODS) REMAINS FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COOL FRONT LATE SUN. HIGH PW AIRMASS LINGERING IN THE WAKE OF THIS HURRICANE (ALONG WITH PROGS OF DECENT LIFT ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY) DOES SEEM TO POINT TO PCPN DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD/WITH FROPA. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE SEVERITY OF THESE STORMS BUT WOULD NOT BE TERRIBLY SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ISOLATED STRONG CELLS. COOLER/DRIER AIR TO FILTER DOWN BY EARLY MON AS THE MILD (AND MOST NOTABLY) QUIET WX PREVAILS FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. SLOW WARMING TREND (BUT STILL RELATIVELY POP-FREE FCST) THEREAFTER. 41 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 86 78 87 70 86 / 100 60 60 50 20 HOUSTON (IAH) 85 77 86 72 86 / 100 60 60 50 30 GALVESTON (GLS) 84 81 85 76 84 / 100 60 60 50 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS... GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MATAGORDA. FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS... COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS... HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA... MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER... WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON. HURRICANE WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: FORT BEND...GRIMES...HOUSTON...MADISON... MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER... WALLER...WHARTON. TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZOS...BURLESON...COLORADO... WASHINGTON. GM...HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY... MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION...43 AVIATION/MARINE...40