Printable ProductProvided by - NWS Southern Region HQ - Print 000 FXUS64 KHGX 140250 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 938 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008 .UPDATE... THE WRATH OF IKE BEHIND US...THE BEGINNING OF RECOVERY AND CLEAN UP EFFORTS WILL BE MET WITH ANOTHER DAY OF OVERCAST SKIES AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. AS MENTIONED BELOW...A FROPA MOVING SOUTH THROUGH SE TX WILL BE THE TRIGGER FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED DETAILING THE SPECIFICS OF TOMORROW`S FRONTAL TIMING AND QPF. ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONTINUED AREAWIDE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EVENING. NOT TOO CONFIDENT THAT THE FRONT WILL COMPLETELY PASS OFF THE COASTLINE BY LATE SUNDAY DUE TO MORE OF AN EASTWARD (THAN SOUTHWARD) PUSH OF NORTHERN PLAINS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT ENTERS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA...THIS WILL HEIGHTEN THE CHANCE FOR HIGHER RAINFALL RATES OVER REGIONS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED BY HURRICANE IKE. PLEASE TAKE THE TIME IN THE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HOURS TO ENSURE THAT YOUR DAMAGED RESIDENCE AND/OR BUSINESS HAS BEEN PROPERLY ATTENDED TO IN PREVENTING (ADDITIONAL) WATER DAMAGE FROM TOMORROW`S RAIN. GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING AN EARLY WEEK COOL DOWN AS SUB-0.75" PWAT AIR WORKS IT WAY DOWN OVER THE REGION. THUS...RELATIVELY DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AVERAGE TEMPS COMING IN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. 31 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008/ DISCUSSION... WHILE THE CENTER OF IKE HAS MOVED OUT OF THE CWA...WE ARE STILL SEEING A FAIR (BUT DECREASING) AMOUNT OF PCPN COVERAGE OVER OUR NRN ZONES ATTM. WILL LIKELY BE DROPPING ALL TROPICAL ADVISORIES WITH THE NEXT PACKAGE BUT WILL RETAIN WIND ADVISORIES THRU THIS EVENING GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE STORM. ALONG THOSE LINE WILL ALSO KEEP THE FFA IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER... THIS RESPITE LOOKS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS MODELS CONTINUE TO IND- ICATE A GOOD CHC OF POPS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COOL FRONT (THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED OF LATE). LINGERING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE/ A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS/ADDITIONAL AFTN HEATING WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SH/TSRAS ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ATTM GOING TO GO WITH FROPA OVER THE NRN AREAS AROUND 3-5PM THEN OFF THE COAST AROUND 6-9PM. THESE TIMES WILL LIKELY BE TWEAKED WITH LATER RUNS AS IKE MOVES FURTHER AWAY. PROGS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INDICATE A FAIRLY NICE GO OF THINGS AS A DRIER/COOLER AIR- MASS PREVAILS. 41 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 78 88 67 85 61 / 60 50 50 10 10 HOUSTON (IAH) 77 88 70 84 64 / 60 60 60 20 10 GALVESTON (GLS) 79 86 72 82 69 / 50 60 60 20 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS... HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO... TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION...31