Printable ProductProvided by - NWS Southern Region HQ - Print 000 FXUS64 KHGX 141457 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 956 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008 .DISCUSSION... SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE TROUGHING ACROSS COASTAL PLAINS WITH COLD FRONT JUST APPROACHING NORTHERN ZONES. 925/850 MB TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR TXK TO EWX. THE HIGHEST PW VALUES ARE SOUTH OF 925 MB TROUGH. BANDS OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS COASTAL AND CENTRAL ZONES WITH THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL REGION. 12Z RUC INDICATE NORTHERN FRINGES OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS REGION REACHING THE COAST BY EARLY EVENING. WE UPDATED 1ST PERIOD INCREASING POPS CENTRAL AND COASTAL REGION TO CATEGORICAL. 37 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008/ DISCUSSION... STILL RECOVERING FROM THE AFFECTS OF IKE. THE OFFICE ITSELF HELD UP VERY WELL. DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THE BUILDING WENT FROM BACKUP TO COMMERCIAL POWER. THE REMNANTS OF IKE WERE PUSHING INTO SOUTHWESTER ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE STORM...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS SE TX AND BRING SCATTERED TO LIKELY COVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS SE TX TODAY AND OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. GENERALLY WENT WITH THE GFS BUT DID KEEP ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS EARLY MONDAY. A COMBINATION OF LOW GRIDDED FLASH FLOOD VALUES AND PW/S BETWEEN 2 AND 2.5 INCHES LEADING TOWARD LIKELY RAIN COVERAGE MEANS THAT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAINFALL EXCEEDING THE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRIER. COOLER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. 40 AVIATION... WILL CARRY VCSH/VCTS AT OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES (IAH...CLL...CXO... UTS) THIS MORNING AND AT OUR SOUTHERN TAF SITES (HOU...SGR... LBX...GLS) THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH RAINS COMING TO AN END. 42 MARINE... WE WILL HAVE A COMBINATION OF CAUTION AND ADVISORY FLAGS FOR OUR WATERS TODAY AS WAVE HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY COME DOWN. AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST. WILL UPDATE OUR COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE FOR THE ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS THAT ARE SLOWLY COMING DOWN. 42 CLIMATE... A LOT OF YESTERDAY`S CLIMATE DATA IS INCORRECT OR MISSING. WE WILL WORK ON FIXING THE INFORMATION DURING THE DAY TODAY. 42 .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...HARRIS... LIBERTY...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...WALKER...WALLER. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM... WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION...37