Printable ProductProvided by - NWS Southern Region HQ - Print 000 FXUS64 KHGX 150922 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 422 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2008 .DISCUSSION... WITH THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING INTO SE TX FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS SAME HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL HELP RELAX THE ABOVE NORMAL TIDES THAT ARE STILL AFFECTING THE UPPER COAST. SEE THE MARINE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A FEW ITEMS TO NOTE...THE IAH AND HOU AIRPORTS WERE EXPECTED TO RESUME AT LEAST LIMITED OPERATIONS TODAY. THERE WERE STILL A FEW METAR SITES NOT REPORTING MAINLY FROM THE AFFECTS OF THE HURRICANE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ADVERTISED BY EITHER THE GFS OR ECMWF IS EITHER OVER THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF THE STATE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS OR SO BEFORE SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW REFRESHING DAYS BEFORE A SLOW WARM UP BEGINS. 40 && .AVIATION... ONLY ISSUE FOR THE TERMINALS TODAY WILL BE THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS...WITH SUSTAINED 15 KTS...GUSTS 20-25 KTS EXPECTED FOR MOST TERMINALS. THE GUSTS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT AT KGLS THIS MORNING...AND FOR THE INLAND TERMINALS THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECOUPLE TO 5 KTS OR LESS AROUND SUNSET...EXCEPT 10-15 KTS ALONG THE COAST. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT. 35 && .MARINE... TIDE LEVELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT WITH VALUES ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF GALVESTON BAY DOWN TO 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MLLW. PLEASURE PIER IS THE ONLY SITE STILL REPORTING A LEVEL OVER 3 FEET ABOVE MLLW. THESE VALUES ARE 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN ALL THE RECOVERY OPERATIONS GOING ON AND THE EXISTING FRESHWATER FLOODING THAT MUST DRAIN OUT...HAVE DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND REISSUE THE COASTAL HAZARDS MESSAGE FOR ONE MORE CYCLE. HOWEVER...WE WILL PROBABLY BE ABLE TO RESUME THE NORMAL TIDE FORECAST (SATTIDHGX) WITH THE AFTN PACKAGE. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL OFF THE COAST. DRIER/COOLER AIRMASS AND BUILDING SFC HIGH ALREADY RESULTING IN NORTH WINDS OF 15-20 KT AT BOTH BUOYS THIS HOUR. WILL KEEP SCA GOING FOR THE 00-20 NM WATERS THROUGH 18Z...AND FOR THE 20-60 NM WATERS THROUGH 03Z TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE A MARGINAL SCA EVENT WITH WINDS JUST REACHING THE LOWER THRESHOLD OF 21 KNOTS FROM TIME TO TIME AND SEAS REACHING 7 FEET ONLY AT THE OUTER EXTENT OF THE 20 TO 60 NM WATERS GROUP. WILL HAVE A CAUTION FOR THE BAYS THROUGH 18Z. WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN AT THE SCEC LEVEL FOR THE 00-60 NM WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 10-15 KTS FOR ALL WATERS TUE AFTN THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2 FT NEARSHORE...3-4 FT OFFSHORE. LIGHT WINDS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE DIRECTION GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE EAST. SEAS WILL RUN 3 FT OR LESS. 35 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 81 59 83 60 85 / 10 10 10 10 10 HOUSTON (IAH) 81 59 81 60 84 / 10 10 10 10 10 GALVESTON (GLS) 80 69 79 70 80 / 10 10 10 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY... MATAGORDA BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION...40 AVIATION/MARINE...35