Drought Information Statement for Central and Southeast Illinois Valid September 18, 2025 Issued By: WFO Lincoln, IL Contact Information: nws.lincoln@noaa.gov The next update will be Thursday, September 25, if conditions persist or worsen. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/ilx/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates for regional drought status updates. Key Messages: Rapid expansion of drought is taking place over central and southeast Illinois. A period of rain chances over the next week could stall worsening of drought conditions, but an extended period of much above normal temperatures and little rainfall favors continuation of drought. 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Drought Intensity and Extent: D4 (Exceptional Drought): N/A D3 (Extreme Drought): N/A D2 (Severe Drought): Champaign, Piatt, Douglas, and Edgar Counties D1 (Moderate Drought): Most of central and southeast IL D0: (Abnormally Dry): Knox, Stark, Marshall, Crawford, and portions of Lawrence and Clark Counties Recent Change in Drought Intensity One Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened 1 category: Most of central and southeast IL Drought Improved: None No Change: Portions of a broad corridor from Springfield to Danville areas, including Bloomington, Decatur, and Mattoon. Also Clay County. Precipitation Very little rain has fallen since mid August. Some portions of south central Illinois have seen less than a tenth inch of rain. Rainfall during September has mainly been less than 0.10”, with isolated heavier amounts of 1-2” near I-74 from Champaign to Danville. Last 30 days Image Caption: Total precipitation as a percentage of normal, as of September 17. Left image is a 30 day average, right image the last 7 days. Images from Drought.gov. Temperature Average temperatures have been running below normal in most areas since about August 24th Averages for September to date are running 6 to 10 degrees below normal Image Caption: Average temperatures vs. normal, as of September 8. Left image is a 30 day average, right image the last 7 days. Images from Midwestern Regional Climate Center. Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts Streamflow along the Illinois, Sangamon, Vermilion, and Mackinaw Rivers is below normal, and some smaller creeks are near zero flow. Lake levels: Lake Decatur about 1 foot below seasonal normals, Lake Shelbyville about 1 foot below, Lake Springfield near normal. Smaller lakes and ponds are low. Agricultural Impacts Crops are drying rapidly with harvest efforts continuing. Crop yield loss is expected. Fire Hazard Impacts Burn bans have been implemented in the following areas: Lawrence, Clay, Coles, Edgar, Macon, Moultrie, Christian, and Champaign Counties, and local bans have been implemented in portions of Sangamon, Peoria, Shelby, Cumberland, McLean, and De Witt Counties. There is a field fire risk as farmers run hot equipment through dry fields during harvest. Other Impacts Lawns are turning brown. Trees, and landscaping plants are stressed. Mitigation Actions None Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Most streamflows are below normal, however the most significant streamflow impacts are on portions of the Illinois, Sangamon, Mackinaw, and Vermilion Rivers. Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid September 17, 2025. Agricultural Impacts Rapidly drying crops have led to ahead of schedule harvesting across the state. Image Captions: Left: 1-week Evaporative Demand Drought Index valid September 12, courtesy of NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory. Right: 7-day Evapotranspiration ending September 17, courtesy of Midwestern Regional Climate Center. Fire Hazard Impacts Field fire risk is a concern as farmers run hot equipment through dry fields. Image Captions: Left: Keetch-Byram Drought Index courtesy of the Midwestern Regional Climate Center, valid September 16. Right: Significant Wildland Fire Potential Monthly Outlook for September, courtesy of the National Interagency Fire Center. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Rainfall over the next 7 days is forecast to range from ¾ to 1.5 inches over most of central and southeast IL. This would be enough to prevent further deterioration of drought conditions, but would be unlikely to significantly mitigate the drought. Image Caption: Expected rainfall over the next 7 days, valid through Thursday, September 25. Check weather.gov/ilx for updated forecasts. Rapid Onset Drought Outlook An extended period of well above normal temperatures, combined with the dry conditions, will favor rapid expansion of drought conditions. Image Caption: Days 8 to 14 U.S. Hazards Outlook Valid September 19-25. Long Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage The precipitation outlook does not favor a particular trend, meaning equal chances of above normal, near normal, or below normal rainfall. The fall temperature outlook is for a 33-40% chance of average temperature above normal, only a slight shift in probability toward warmer than normal conditions. Monthly outlook (issued last day of month) Seasonal outlook (issued 3rd Thursday of month) Monthly outlook (issued 3rd Thursday of month) Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage The lack of significant rainfall in the coming months should cause drought to persist or worsen. Image Caption: Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook released September 18, valid through December 31, 2025