Drought Information Statement for Central and Southeast Illinois Valid September 19, 2024 Issued By: WFO Lincoln, IL Contact Information: nws.lincoln@noaa.gov The next update would be Thursday, September 26, if conditions persist or worsen. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/ilx/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates for regional drought status updates. Drought conditions are developing/worsening across Illinois. Beneficial rains are expected this weekend into early next week. 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Drought intensity and Extent D4 (Exceptional Drought): N/A D3 (Extreme Drought): N/A D2 (Severe Drought): N/A D1 (Moderate Drought): Portions of the following counties: Fulton, Schuyler, Mason, Cass, Shelby, Cumberland, Clark, Effingham, Jasper, Crawford, Clay, Richland, and Lawrence D0: (Abnormally Dry): All of central and northwest Illinois Recent Change in Drought Intensity One Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: Portions of Fulton, Schuyler, Mason, Cass, Shelby, Cumberland, Clark, Effingham, Jasper, Clay, and Richland counties all entered D1 drought over the past week Drought Improved: Nowhere No Change: Crawford and Lawrence counties remained in D1 drought, while several other counties throughout the region remained in D0 drought. Precipitation Rainfall over the last 30 days is generally just 5% to 50% of normal across central and southeast Illinois, with most of the area receiving less than one inch during this time. Last 30 days Temperature Temperatures throughout September have included stretches of both above normal and below normal conditions, netting near normal temperature anomalies over the last seven and 30-day periods. Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts The Illinois River Carriers Association has noted that there is some constriction of the navigable channel along the Illinois River due to low water levels. Agricultural Impacts Harvest season is ahead of schedule due to the dryness. Additionally, pastures are faring poorly due to the worsening drought. Some produces are having to supplement feed and hay earlier than expected. Fire Hazard Impacts The recent hot and dry conditions do come with a field fire risk as farmers run hot equipment through dry fields during harvest. Other Impacts There are no known impacts at this time Mitigation Actions We are aware of burn bans in place for Crawford, Clay, and Lawrence Counties as of 9/19/2024. Please refer to your municipality for the latest information specific to your area. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Streamflows are normal in many areas across the state, but there are areas of below normal flow (10th-24th percentile) along the Illinois and Wabash Rivers, and well-below normal flow (below 10th percentile) along some portions of the Illinois River. Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid September 18, 2024. Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture at the 20 cm level is generally in the 90-100th percentile across central Illinois - well above normal. Agricultural impacts to crops are limited, with much of the region harvesting ahead of schedule. However, the impact to pastures has been greater, with the need to supplement feed and hay coming earlier than expected. Image Captions: Left: 1-week Evaporative Demand Drought Index valid September 14, 2024. Right: 7-day Evapotranspiration ending September 18, 2024. Fire Hazard Impacts The Fire Hazard impacts are limited as conditions remain typical of late summer, early fall. Lower litter and duff layers may contribute to fire intensity and will burn actively. Image Captions: Left: Keetch-Byram Drought Index courtesy of the Midwestern Regional Climate Center, valid August 31, 2023 Right: Significant Wildland Fire Potential Monthly Outlook for August 2023 Seven Day Precipitation Forecast After a prolonged dry period to start September, a pattern change will provide multiple rain chances this weekend into early next week. Beneficial rainfall amounts of over 1 inch are possible north of I-70. Check weather.gov/ilx for updated forecast, as this packet is not regularly updated. Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. Summarize conditions and impacts here Image Caption: Days 8 to 14 U.S. Hazards Outlook Valid Month DD to DD. Long Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Current outlooks for the month of October indicate equal chances of above or below normal temperatures, and favor below normal precipitation (33-40% chance). Monthly outlook (issued last day of month) Seasonal outlook (issued 3rd Thursday of month) Monthly outlook (issued 3rd Thursday of month) Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Drought conditions are likely to persist across portions of west-central and southern IL through the remainder of the year. Image Caption: Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Released September 19, 2024 valid through through December 31, 2024 Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook