Drought Information Statement for Central and Southeast Illinois Valid September 25, 2025 Issued By: WFO Lincoln, IL Contact Information: nws.lincoln@noaa.gov The next update will be Thursday, October 2, if conditions persist or worsen. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/ilx/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates for regional drought status updates. Key Messages: Rapid expansion of drought is taking place over central and southeast Illinois. Dry weather is expected through the next week, potentially worsening the drought across the forecast area. 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Drought Intensity and Extent: D4 (Exceptional Drought): N/A D3 (Extreme Drought): N/A D2 (Severe Drought): Champaign, Piatt, Douglas, Edgar, Moultrie, and Shelby Counties D1 (Moderate Drought): Most of central and southeast IL D0: (Abnormally Dry): Knox, Stark, and Marshall counties Recent Change in Drought Intensity One Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened 1 category: Moultrie, Shelby, Crawford, and Clark counties Drought Improved: None No Change: The rest of central and southeastern IL Recent Precipitation Despite the areas of heavier rainfall the last few days, area-wide is still below normal for the last 30 days Rainfall during September has mainly been around ½-2”, allowing some locations to be above normal for the week. Last 7 days and 30 days Image Caption: Total precipitation as a percentage of normal, as of September 23. Left image is a 30 day average, right image the last 7 days. Images from Drought.gov. Temperature Average temperatures have been running below normal in most areas since about August 24th Averages for September to date are running 6 to 10 degrees below normal Image Caption: Average temperatures vs. normal, as of September 8. Left image is a 30 day average, right image the last 7 days. Images from Midwestern Regional Climate Center. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Most streamflows are below normal, however the most significant streamflow impacts are on portions of the Illinois, and Mackinaw Rivers. Some areas have bumped up to normal average streamflow thanks to the recent rainfall. Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid September 24, 2025. Agricultural Impacts Rapidly drying crops have led to ahead of schedule harvesting across the state. Image Caption: Left: 1-month Evaporative Demand Drought Index valid September 19, courtesy of NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory. Right: 7-day Evapotranspiration ending September 23, courtesy of Midwestern Regional Climate Center. Fire Hazard Impacts Field fire risk is a concern as farmers run hot equipment through dry fields. Image Caption: Left: Keetch-Byram Drought Index courtesy of the Midwestern Regional Climate Center, valid September 22. Right: Significant Wildland Fire Potential Monthly Outlook for September, courtesy of the National Interagency Fire Center. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Rainfall over the next 7 days is forecast to be very minimal over most of central and southeast IL. This would potentially cause further deterioration of drought conditions. Image Caption: Expected rainfall over the next 7 days, valid through Thursday, October 1. Check weather.gov/ilx for updated forecasts. Rapid Onset Drought Outlook An extended period of well above normal temperatures, combined with the dry conditions, will favor rapid expansion of drought conditions. Image Caption: Days 8 to 14 U.S. Hazards Outlook Valid September 19-25. Long Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage The precipitation outlook has equal chances for above, near, or below normal rainfall north of I-72. South of I-72 slightly favors below normal rainfall. The fall temperature outlook is for a 33-50% chance of above normal temperatures. Monthly outlook (issued last day of month) Monthly outlook (issued 18th of the month) Monthly outlook (issued 3rd Thursday of month) Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage The lack of significant rainfall in the coming months should cause drought to persist or worsen. Image Caption: Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook released September 18, valid through December 31, 2025 Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Streamflow along the Illinois, Sangamon, Vermilion, and Mackinaw Rivers is below normal, and some smaller creeks are near zero flow. Thanks to recent rainfall some areas have seen near normal streamflow this week. Lake levels: Lake Decatur ~2 feet below seasonal normals, Lake Shelbyville about 2 feet below, Lake Springfield near normal. Smaller lakes and ponds are low. Agricultural Impacts Crops are drying rapidly with harvest efforts continuing. Crop yield loss is expected. Fire Hazard Impacts Burn bans have been implemented in the following areas: Lawrence, Clay, Coles, Edgar, Macon, Moultrie, Christian, and Champaign Counties, and local bans have been implemented in portions of Sangamon, Peoria, Shelby, Cumberland, McLean, and De Witt Counties. There is a field fire risk as farmers run hot equipment through dry fields during harvest. Other Impacts Lawns are turning brown. Trees and landscaping plants are stressed. Mitigation Actions None