Drought Information Statement for Central and Southeast Illinois Valid October 2, 2025 Issued By: WFO Lincoln, IL Contact Information: nws.lincoln@noaa.gov The next update will be Thursday, October 9, if conditions persist or worsen. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/ilx/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates for regional drought status updates. Key Messages: Expansion of drought conditions continues to take place over central and southeast Illinois. Dry weather is expected through most of the next week, potentially worsening the drought across the forecast area. 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Drought Intensity and Extent: D4 (Exceptional Drought): N/A D3 (Extreme Drought): N/A D2 (Severe Drought): Much of the Illinois River Valley and the I-57 Corridor D1 (Moderate Drought): Most of the remainder of central and southeast IL D0: (Abnormally Dry): N/A Recent Change in Drought Intensity One Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened 1 category: Areas along and adjacent to the Illinois River Valley; Portions of Christian, Shelby, Cumberland, and Effingham Counties Drought Improved: Small portions of Vermilion, Lawrence, and Crawford counties No Change: The rest of central and southeastern IL Recent Precipitation Some precip was observed over portions of east central and southeast Illinois over the past week, however much of the remainder of central Illinois west of I-57 received little if any precip. 30-day precip continues to run well below normal for nearly all of central and southeast Illinois. Last 7 days and 30 days Image Caption: Total precipitation as a percentage of normal, as of October 1 (left) and October 2 (right). Left image is a 30 day average, right image the last 7 days. Images from Drought.gov. Temperature Average temperatures have been running below normal in most areas since about August 24th Averages for September to date are running 6 to 10 degrees below normal Image Caption: Average temperatures vs. normal, as of September 8. Left image is a 30 day average, right image the last 7 days. Images from Midwestern Regional Climate Center. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Most streamflows are below normal, however the most significant streamflow impacts are on portions of the Illinois, and Mackinaw Rivers. Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid October 1, 2025. Agricultural Impacts Rapidly drying crops have led to ahead of schedule harvesting across the state. Image Caption: Left: 1-month Evaporative Demand Drought Index valid September 19, courtesy of NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory. Right: 7-day Evapotranspiration ending September 23, courtesy of Midwestern Regional Climate Center. Fire Hazard Impacts Field fire risk is a concern as farmers run hot equipment through dry fields. Image Caption: Left: Keetch-Byram Drought Index courtesy of the Midwestern Regional Climate Center, valid September 30. Right: Significant Wildland Fire Potential Monthly Outlook for October, courtesy of the National Interagency Fire Center. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Rainfall over the next 7 days is forecast to be minimal over most of central Illinois. A cold front will push across the region early next week (Monday 10/6 into Tuesday 10/7) and will be the next decent chance for showers and storms, particularly for portions of southeastern Illinois. Image Caption: Expected rainfall over the next 7 days, valid through Thursday, October 9. Check weather.gov/ilx for updated forecasts. Rapid Onset Drought Outlook An extended period of well above normal temperatures, combined with the dry conditions, will favor rapid expansion of drought conditions. Image Caption: Days 8 to 14 U.S. Hazards Outlook Valid September 19-25. Long Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage The precipitation outlook for October has a 33-50% probability of below normal precipitation. The October temperature outlook is for a 60-70% chance of above normal temperatures. Monthly outlook (issued last day of month) Monthly outlook (issued 18th of the month) Monthly outlook (issued 3rd Thursday of month) Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage The lack of significant rainfall in the coming months should cause drought to persist or worsen. Image Caption: (Left) Climate Prediction Center 1-Month Drought Outlook for October and (Right) Seasonal Drought Outlook released September 30, valid through December 31, 2025 Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts Streamflow along the Illinois, Sangamon, Vermilion, and Mackinaw Rivers is below normal, and some smaller creeks are near zero flow. Lake levels: Lake Decatur ~2 feet below seasonal normals, Lake Shelbyville about 1.3 feet below, Lake Springfield near normal. Smaller lakes and ponds are low. Agricultural Impacts Crops are drying rapidly with harvest efforts continuing. Fire Hazard Impacts Burn bans have been implemented in a number of counties and local municipalities. There is a field fire risk as farmers run hot equipment through dry fields during harvest. Other Impacts Lawns are turning brown. Trees and landscaping plants are stressed. Mitigation Actions None