Drought Information Statement for Central and Southeast Illinois Valid October 16, 2025 Issued By: WFO Lincoln, IL Contact Information: nws.lincoln@noaa.gov The next update will be Thursday, October 23, if conditions persist or worsen. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/ilx/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates for regional drought status updates. Key Messages: Expansion of drought conditions continues to take place over central and southeast Illinois. Dry weather is expected through Friday, potentially worsening the drought across Illinois. Widespread rains are expected Saturday and Saturday night with over 1 inch of rain likely. 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for central and southeast Illinois Drought Intensity and Extent: D4 (Exceptional Drought): N/A D3 (Extreme Drought): Portions of east central Illinois over Piatt, Moultrie, Champaign, Douglas and Coles counties. D2 (Severe Drought): Much of central Illinois north of I-70 corridor. D1 (Moderate Drought): Southeast Illinois south of I-70. D0: (Abnormally Dry): Small area in southeast Illinois near Wabash river in Lawrence and southeast Crawford counties. Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 1-week change map for central and southeast Illinois One Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: Portions of central IL east of Springfield to Champaign/Urbana. Drought Improved: Far eastern Crawford county near the Wabash river. No Change: The rest of central and southeastern IL Recent Precipitation Little or no precipitation was observed over central and southeast Illinois in the past week since Oct 8th. 30-day precip continues to run well below normal for nearly all of central and southeast Illinois. Last 7 days and 30 days Image Caption: Total precipitation as a percentage of normal, as of October 15. Left image is a 30 day average, right image the last 7 days. Images from Drought.gov. Temperature Average temperatures have been running below normal in most areas since about August 24th Averages for September to date are running 6 to 10 degrees below normal Image Caption: Average temperatures vs. normal, as of September 8. Left image is a 30 day average, right image the last 7 days. Images from Midwestern Regional Climate Center. Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Streamflow along the Illinois, Sangamon, Vermilion, Mackinaw, Little Wabash and Wabash Rivers is below normal, and some smaller creeks are near zero flow. Lake levels: Lake Decatur 2 to 3 feet below seasonal normals (lowering 0.3 ft in past week), Lake Shelbyville about 1.5 feet below, Lake Springfield slipping slightly below normal in the past week. Smaller lakes and ponds are low. Agricultural Impacts Crops are drying rapidly with harvest efforts continuing. Fire Hazard Impacts Burn bans have been implemented in a number of counties and local municipalities. There is a field fire risk as farmers run hot equipment through dry fields during harvest. Other Impacts Lawns are turning brown. Young trees and landscaping plants are stressed. Mitigation Actions Voluntary water conservation has been requested for Decatur residents due to low lake levels. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Most streamflows are below normal, however the most significant streamflow impacts are on portions of the Illinois, Mackinaw and Wabash Rivers. Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid October 15, 2025. Agricultural Impacts Rapidly drying crops have led to ahead of schedule harvesting across the state. Image Caption: Left: 1-month Evaporative Demand Drought Index valid September 19, courtesy of NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory. Right: 7-day Evapotranspiration ending September 23, courtesy of Midwestern Regional Climate Center. Fire Hazard Impacts Field fire risk is a concern as farmers run hot equipment through dry fields. Image Caption: Left: Keetch-Byram Drought Index courtesy of the Midwestern Regional Climate Center, valid September 30. Right: Significant Wildland Fire Potential Monthly Outlook for October, courtesy of the National Interagency Fire Center. Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Rainfall over the next 7 days is forecast to be 1 to 2 inches over most of central Illinois and southeast IL with locally higher amounts possible in east central and southeast IL. Much of this 1 to 2 inch rainfall is expected on Saturday and Saturday night (Oct 18-19). Another chance of showers is expected Monday night through Tuesday night, with up to a tenth to quarter inch possible with locally quarter to half inch amounts. Image Caption: Expected rainfall over the next 7 days, valid through 7 PM Wednesday, Oct 22. Check weather.gov/ilx for updated forecasts. Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. Summarize conditions and impacts here Long Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage The precipitation outlook for October has a 33-50% probability of below normal precipitation. The October temperature outlook is for a 60-70% chance of above normal temperatures. Monthly outlook (issued 18th of the month) Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Lack of significant rainfall in the coming months should cause drought to persist or worsen rest of the month over central & southeast IL. There is some trends of improvement of drought conditions in portions of central & eastern IL from November through January. Image Caption: (Right) Climate Prediction Center 1-Month Drought Outlook for October released Sep 30 and (Left) Seasonal Drought Outlook released Oct 16, valid through January 31, 2026 Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook