Drought Information Statement for Central and Southeast Illinois Valid October 23, 2025 Issued By: WFO Lincoln, IL Contact Information: nws.lincoln@noaa.gov The next update will be Thursday, October 30, if conditions persist or worsen. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/ilx/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates for regional drought status updates. Key Messages: After heavy rain last weekend, some improvement has occurred near/south of the I-70 corridor into southern IL. Occasional chances for rain are possible this weekend and early next week, but amounts are expected to be light. 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for central and southeast Illinois Drought Intensity and Extent: D4 (Exceptional Drought): N/A D3 (Extreme Drought): Portions of east-central Illinois over Piatt and Champaign counties. D2 (Severe Drought): Most of central Illinois near and north of I-72, except Vermilion county and portions of McLean, Woodford, and Tazewell counties. D1 (Moderate Drought): Near and south of I-72. D0: (Abnormally Dry): Small area in southeast Illinois near Wabash river in Lawrence and southeast Crawford counties as well as in parts of eastern Vermilion county. Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 1-week change map for central and southeast Illinois One Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: N/A Drought Improved: Between I-72 and I-70, and portions of McLean, Woodford, and Tazewell counties. No Change: The rest of central and southeastern IL Recent Precipitation Above normal precipitation was observed over central and southeast Illinois in the past week since Oct 15th. 30-day precip continues to run well below normal north of I-72. Near to above normal shift for south of I-72. Last 7 days and 30 days Image Caption: Total precipitation as a percentage of normal, as of October 22. Left image is a 30 day average, right image the last 7 days. Images from Drought.gov. Temperature Average temperatures have been running below normal in most areas since about August 24th Averages for September to date are running 6 to 10 degrees below normal Image Caption: Average temperatures vs. normal, as of September 8. Left image is a 30 day average, right image the last 7 days. Images from Midwestern Regional Climate Center. Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Streamflow along the Illinois, Sangamon, Vermilion, Mackinaw, Little Wabash and Wabash Rivers is below normal, and some smaller creeks are near zero flow. Lake levels: Lake Decatur 2 to 3 feet below seasonal normals (lowering 0.3 ft in past week), Lake Shelbyville about 1.5 feet below, Lake Springfield slightly below normal in the past week. Smaller lakes and ponds are low. Agricultural Impacts Harvest efforts continuing. Fire Hazard Impacts Burn bans have been implemented in a number of counties and local municipalities. There is a field fire risk as farmers run hot equipment through dry fields during harvest. Other Impacts Lawns are turning brown. Young trees and landscaping plants are stressed. Last weekend’s rain has greened some pastures in central and southeast IL, but more rain is needed. Mitigation Actions None brought to attention Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Most streamflows are below normal, however the most significant streamflow impacts are on portions of the Illinois, Mackinaw and Wabash Rivers. Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid October 22, 2025. Agricultural Impacts Rapidly drying crops have led to ahead of schedule harvesting across the state. Image Caption: Left: 1-month Evaporative Demand Drought Index valid October 22, courtesy of NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory. Right: 7-day Evapotranspiration ending October 18, courtesy of Midwestern Regional Climate Center. Fire Hazard Impacts Field fire risk is a concern as farmers run hot equipment through dry fields. Image Caption: Left: Keetch-Byram Drought Index courtesy of the Midwestern Regional Climate Center, valid September 30. Right: Significant Wildland Fire Potential Monthly Outlook for October, courtesy of the National Interagency Fire Center. Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Rainfall over the next 7 days is forecast to be 0.1-0.5 inches over most of central Illinois and southeast IL. Image Caption: Expected rainfall over the next 7 days, valid through 7 PM Wednesday, Oct 29. Check weather.gov/ilx for updated forecasts. Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. Summarize conditions and impacts here Long Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage The precipitation outlook for October has a 33-50% probability of below normal precipitation. The October temperature outlook is for a 60-70% chance of above normal temperatures. Monthly outlook (issued 18th of the month) Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Lack of significant rainfall in the coming months should cause drought to persist or worsen the rest of the month over central & southeast IL. There are some signs of improvement of drought conditions in portions of central & eastern IL from November through January. Image Caption: (Right) Climate Prediction Center 1-Month Drought Outlook for October released Sep 30 and (Left) Seasonal Drought Outlook released Oct 16, valid through January 31, 2026 Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook