Drought Information Statement for Southeast Georgia and Northeast Florida
Valid February 26, 2026
Issued By: National Weather Service Jacksonville, FL
Contact Information: kelly.godsey@noaa.gov; jason.hess@noaa.gov
This product will be updated Thursday, March 5, 2025
Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements.
Please visit https://www.weather.gov/JAX/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. 
Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates for regional drought status updates.
Severe to Extreme Drought Continues Across the Region
Impacts are reflective of long term hydrologic drought, especially with respect to non-tidal streamflows and surface water levels. 
Fire weather concerns continue to increase with many counties issuing burn restrictions or bans. 
This is the largest coverage of Extreme Drought (D3) since 2000. 
1

U.S. Drought Monitor
Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Southeast Georgia and Northeast Florida
Only minor changes were made to the drought this week, with only minor improvements noted in Wayne County, Georgia.  

Drought intensity and Extent
D3 (Extreme Drought): Most of southeast Georgia outside of the coastal areas near Brunswick. All of Northeast Florida. 
D2 (Severe Drought): Portions of inland SE Georgia near Wayne County and coastal southeast Georgia near Brunswick. 
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Recent Change in Drought Intensity
Link to the latest 4-week change map for Southeast Georgia and Northeast Florida
Welcome rainfall helped stop the drought from increasing in severity. Some localized improvement was noted in Southeastern Georgia where the rain was heaviest. The improvement was centered around Wayne County. 

One-Week Drought Monitor Class Change:
No change: Most of the region. 
1 category improvement: A small portion of Southeast Georgia in Wayne County. 

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Precipitation
Last 30 Days
Last 90 Days
Rainfall
Percent
Rainfall
Percent
Jasper
0.98”
24.1%
6.18”
54.6%
Live Oak
1.48”
35.5%
6.97”
61.3%
Ichetucknee St Pk.
0.76”
21.7%
4.82”
47.9%
Fanning Springs
1.34”
38.5%
5.04”
50.4%
Baxley
2.28”
56.3%
6.17
54.6%
Alma
1.01”
28.1%
3.29”
32.8%
Waycross
1.64”
41.7%
6.47”
58.8%
Olustee
1.79”
50.5%
6.09”
59.1%
Ocala
1.25”
39.1%
2.84”
31.6%
Palatka
0.74”
24.8%
2.78”
32.7%
Ocklawaha
1.33”
47.1%
2.73”
33.2%
Nahunta
1.51”
31.9%
5.33”
50.2%
Woodbine
1.32”
38.4%
6.78”
69.2%
Jacksonville
0.48”
15.5%
4.96”
56.0%
Data Updated through February 25, 2026
Data Courtesy:
NWS Observations
University of Florida - Florida Automated Weather Network
University of Georgia Weather Network
Suwannee River Water Management District
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Temperature
Last 30 Days
Average High (Departure)
Average Low (Departure)
Jacksonville
68.3° (+0.1°)
39.0° (-6.5°)
Craig Field
66.8° (-0.9°)
41.8° (-5.4°)
Ocala
73.0° (0.0°)
42.1° (-5.7°)
Gainesville
69.2° (-1.0°)
37.6° (-6.8°)
Alma
64.5° (-1.2°)
38.5° (-3.1°)
A recent intrusion of arctic air resulted in two to three freezes over this past week. This had adverse impacts on some winter crops that have recently been planted. 
Warmer temperatures are expected in the days ahead as the pattern shifts going into March. 

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Summary of Impacts
Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter
The Governor of Florida has issued a State of Emergency due to drought in Florida. 

Hydrologic Impacts 
Streamflows on all mainstem rivers in Southeast Georgia and Northeast Florida are especially low. In particular, stretches of the Santa Fe River are at record low flows. 
Reports of stretches of the Suwannee, Santa Fe, and Satilla River that are no longer accessible to recreational boaters using canoes. In Gilchrist County, the Santa Fe River has sandbars visible above the waterline. 
Springs along the Suwannee River are discharging rapidly into the Middle Suwannee with the low level of the Middle Suwannee. 
Agricultural Impacts
Grazing crops are considerably stressed in interior North Florida, particularly in Marion County. 
Winter cover crops in Southeast Georgia are stressed. 
In Bacon County, the blueberry farmers are having to water the crop from holding ponds. Water levels in these ponds are below normal, but still at a sufficient level for now to support the crop. 
Fire Hazard Impacts
The Keetch Byram Drought Index continues to rise, with portions of Alachua and Marion County remaining above 600. The remainder of SE Georgia and NE Florida is in the 400-600 range. 
There has been an increase in wildfire activity reported in many counties. 
Burn bans are now in effect in Columbia, Baker, Union, Bradford, Gilchrist, Alachua, Marion, Putnam, and Flagler Counties.
Mitigation Actions
Suwannee River Water Management District has issued a water shortage advisory for their watershed. 
St. Johns Water Management District is in a Phase 1 Moderate Water Shortage. Watering restrictions are in effect


A Perspective on this Drought
Links: Drought Monitor Time Series
How does this drought compare to past long term droughts in the Jacksonville forecast area? 
There have been four long duration extreme droughts since 2000 in our region, including this current drought. 
While conditions are significant, they have not matched the lengthy duration experienced in the 2011/2012 drought. 
Even though no Exceptional Drought (D4) is present, this is the highest percentage of Extreme Drought (D3) coverage in the Jacksonville area since the drought monitor began in 1999. 
This is the most impactful drought within the Jacksonville area since 2012. 
This is the first time since the drought monitor began in late 1999 that the entire State of Florida is D1 (Moderate drought) or worse. 
Courtesy of the US Drought Monitor Page. 
Time series depiction of D2, D3, and D4 drought across the Jacksonville forecast area by percentage (top). 
State of Florida Time Series of D1, D2, D3, and D4 drought by percentage (bottom). Records date back to 2000. 

Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts
Streamflows across all mainstem rivers are running well below normal to near record lows based on instantaneous flow readings on February 26th. 

The Upper Santa Fe River remains near record low flow. 

Recreational access to various rivers is becoming challenging or impossible for paddle boats and canoes.
Suwannee River Water Management District has issued a Water Shortage Advisory for their watershed.

St. Johns Water Management District is in a Phase 1 Moderate Water Shortage. Watering restrictions ensure the efficient use of water for irrigation. 

Current Streamflow Anomalies from USGS - Feb 26, 2026
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Agricultural Impacts
Dry Soils are present across interior southeast Georgia & northeast Florida. 
Planting season is still scheduled to kick off on time, but we will need increased rainfall to keep up with the increasing water demand.
Recent rain did bring minimal improvement in the top 6 inches of the soil based on agricultural reports, especially near the Altamaha River. 
0-200 cm Relative Soil Moisture & 1-week Change in 0-200 cm Relative Soil Moisture
Data courtesy of NASA SPoRT
2026 Crop Reports
Florida | Georgia
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Fire Hazard Impacts
Keetch-Byram Drought Index values at or above 500 for portions of interior NE Florida, mainly south of Interstate 10.  
Burn bans are in effect for Columbia, Baker, Union, Bradford, Gilchrist, Alachua, Marion, Putnam, and Flagler Counties.

Fire danger remains high.

The Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for March calls for above normal wildfire activity across the area.
Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center.
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Seven Day Precipitation Forecast
A frontal system will move through the region on Friday. There is potential for more than an inch of rainfall across much of the area along and north of I-10. Some locally heavier amounts in excess of 3 inches are possible. 
Little additional rainfall is expected from Saturday through Thursday. 
8-14 day outlook (3/4 - 3/10): slightly above normal precipitation. 


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Rapid Onset Drought Outlook
Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook.
Summarize conditions and impacts here

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Long-Range Outlooks
The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage
Next 3 months favor near normal precipitation and leaning toward above normal temperatures.
While March tends to be a wetter month, the presence of a diminishing La Niña keeps the local weather pattern less active. 
Drier conditions occur in April and early May before sea breeze season begins. 
Mar
Apr
May
Average
Temp
Rain
Temp
Rain
Temp
Rain
Jacksonville
62.4°
3.29”
68.1°
2.93”
74.9°
3.42”
Craig Field
62.6°
3.03”
68.3°
2.41”
74.4°
3.04”
Ocala
65.3°
3.68”
70.7°
2.22”
76.4°
3.53”
Gainesville
62.7°
3.49”
68.5°
2.74”
75.0°
3.08”
Alma
60.2°
4.17”
66.5°
2.85”
74.2°
2.78”
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Drought Outlook
The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage
Drought is expected to persist through the Spring. 

With below normal precipitation through the winter, persistent drought conditions are expected & will likely further worsen across the region, especially if March ends up having below normal precipitation. 
With the combined impacts of spring green-up and long-term drought, there are concerns for an active local wildfire season this spring.
Links to the latest:
Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook 
Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook 
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