Drought Information Statement for Southeast Georgia and Northeast Florida
Valid January 29, 2026
Issued By: National Weather Service Jacksonville, FL
Contact Information: kelly.godsey@noaa.gov; jason.hess@noaa.gov
This product will be updated February 5, 2026 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly.  
Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements.
Please visit https://www.weather.gov/JAX/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. 
Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates for regional drought status updates.
Extreme Drought Returns to Interior Southeast Georgia and portions of Interior Northeast Florida. 
Severe Drought expands to include the remainder of the region. 
Streamflows across many non-tidal rivers and streams are especially low, with some near record low flows. 
Fire weather risk is increasing, particularly south of Interstate 10. 
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U.S. Drought Monitor
Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Southeast Georgia and Northeast Florida
Persistent dryness continues across Southeast Georgia and Northeast Florida. With limited rain over the last couple of months, drought conditions have steadily worsened. 

Drought intensity and Extent
D3 (Extreme Drought): Inland portions of Northeast Florida, mainly along and west of Interstate 75 and south of Interstate 10.  In Southeast Georgia, from Atkinson County northeast into Wayne County. 
D2 (Severe Drought): The remainder of Southeast Georgia and Northeast Florida. 
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Recent Change in Drought Intensity
Link to the latest 4-week change map for Southeast Georgia and Northeast Florida
Drought conditions continue to expand and worsen across the region, with degradation noted across portions of interior Southeast Georgia, coastal Northeast Florida, and across the Lower Suwannee and Santa Fe River Basins. 

One-Week Drought Monitor Class Change:
1 category degradation: Across far inland portions of Southeast Georgia, Coastal Northeast Florida, and in the Lower Suwannee and Santa Fe River Basins. 

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Precipitation
Last 30 Days
Last 90 Days
Rainfall
Percent
Rainfall
Percent
Jasper
2.06”
43.3%
5.58”
57.8%
Live Oak
2.08”
46.8%
5.70”
59.5%
Ichetucknee St Pk.
1.79”
34.4%
4.07”
47.0%
Fanning Springs
1.59”
43.7%
3.72”
43.2%
Baxley
1.85”
48.5%
4.36”
44.4%
Alma
1.34”
37.7%
3.64”
41.8%
Waycross
1.98”
50.6%
5.70”
60.2%
Olustee
1.52”
37.5%
4.30”
49.0%
Ocala
1.34”
41.4%
2.37”
29.9%
Palatka
0.94”
31.1%
2.04”
26.0%
Ocklawaha
0.90”
29.8%
2.19”
29.0%
Nahunta
1.65”
42.9%
4.72”
52.1%
Woodbine
2.42”
68.6%
5.60”
65.1%
Jacksonville
1.38”
43.9%
4.48”
56.8%
Data Updated through January 28, 2026
Data Courtesy:
NWS Observations
University of Florida - Florida Automated Weather Network
University of Georgia Weather Network
Suwannee River Water Management District
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Temperature
After a warm start to the year, temperatures have largely been below normal since mid January. 
Multiple freezes have been recorded over the interior. 

Last 30 Days
Average High (Departure)
Average Low (Departure)
Jacksonville
67.5° (+2.1°)
41.8° (-1.0°)
Craig Field
66.5° (+1.5°)
44.1° (-0.5°)
Ocala
71.3° (+0.8°)
45.7° (+0.1°)
Gainesville
69.0° (+2.1°)
42.4° (-0.1°)
Alma
63.6° (+1.1°)
37.3° (-2.0°)
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Summary of Impacts
Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter
Hydrologic Impacts 
Streamflows on all mainstem rivers in Southeast Georgia and Northeast Florida are especially low. In particular, stretches of the Santa Fe River are very near record low flows. 
Reports of stretches of the Suwannee, Santa Fe, and Satilla River are no longer accessible to recreational boaters using canoes. 
Springs along the Suwannee River are discharging rapidly into the Middle Suwannee with the low level of the Middle Suwannee. 
Agricultural Impacts
Grazing crops are considerably stressed south of I-10 in North Florida, particularly in Marion County. 
Winter cover crops in Southeast Georgia are stressed, with some areas choosing not to plant cover crop until more substantive rain arrives. 
In Bacon County, the blueberry farmers are having to water the crop from holding ponds. Water levels in these ponds are below normal, but still at a sufficient level for now to support the crop. 
Fire Hazard Impacts
The Keetch Byram Drought Index continues to rise, with portions of Alachua and Marion County now  above 600. The remainder of SE Georgia and NE Florida are in the 400-550 range. 
There has been an increase in wildfire activity reported in several counties across interior NE Florida and SE Georgia. 
Mitigation Actions
Suwannee River Water Management District has issued a water shortage advisory for their watershed. 


Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts
Streamflows across all mainstem rivers have dropped below the 10th percentile for flow this time of year. 

The Upper Santa Fe River remains near record low flow. 

The non-tidal rivers are expected to continue decreasing with the lack of widespread heavy rainfall. 

Recreational access to various rivers is becoming challenging or impossible for paddle boats and canoes. 
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Agricultural Impacts
Dry Soils are present across across interior southeast Georgia & northeast Florida, especially from the Okefenokee Swamp southward. 
Even with a little rain over the weekend, soils remain especially dry. 

Continued lack of heavy rainfall and low relative humidities will lead to further drying. 
0-200 cm Relative Soil Moisture & 1-week Change in 0-200 cm Relative Soil Moisture
Data courtesy of NASA SPoRT
2026 Crop Reports
Florida | Georgia
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Fire Hazard Impacts
Keetch-Byram Drought Index values at or above 600 for portions of interior NE Florida mainly south of Interstate 10.  
Burn bans are in effect for Union County in NE Florida. 

With continued dry conditions, fire danger is increasing, particularly in inland NE Florida. 

The Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for February calls for above normal wildfire activity across the area
Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center.
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Seven Day Precipitation Forecast
Limited precipitation is expected over the next week. 

Light rain or snow is possible on Friday into Saturday morning, but liquid equivalent amounts should be less than 0.10 inches. 

Dry conditions are expected after Saturday. 
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Rapid Onset Drought Outlook
Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook.
Summarize conditions and impacts here

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Long-Range Outlooks
The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage
Next 3 months favor above normal temperatures & below normal precipitation. 
Lower rain amounts tied to current La Nina. 
In the winter months, rainfall is often below normal as storm systems tend to track farther north of the region. 
Feb
Mar
Apr
Average
Temp
Rain
Temp
Rain
Temp
Rain
Jacksonville
57.5°
2.86”
62.4°
3.29”
68.1°
2.93”
Craig Field
58.0°
2.42”
62.6°
3.03”
68.3°
2.41”
Ocala
61.0°
2.94”
65.3°
3.68”
70.7°
2.22”
Gainesville
58.4°
2.67”
62.7°
3.49”
68.5°
2.74”
Alma
54.4°
3.37”
60.2°
4.17”
66.5°
2.85”
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Drought Outlook
The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage
Drought is expected to persist through the winter and into the Spring. 

With persistent La Nina through the winter, below normal precipitation and persistent drought conditions are expected & will likely further worsen/expand. 
The combined impacts of spring green-up and long-term drought, there are concerns for an active local wildfire season this spring.
Links to the latest:
Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook 
Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook 
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