Drought Information Statement for the Mid-South Valid January 15, 2026 Issued By: National Weather Service Memphis, TN Contact Information: nws.memphis@noaa.gov This product will be updated January 29, 2026 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/MEG/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates for regional drought status updates. Extreme (D3) drought conditions return in parts of eastern Arkansas, with Severe (D2) and Moderate (D1) drought conditions elsewhere Long-range models suggest favorable chances for heavy precipitation late next week and all current drought conditions are favored to end or improve by the end of April. U.S. Drought Monitor Drought intensity and Extent D4 (Exceptional Drought): None. D3 (Extreme Drought): A sliver of western Craighead and western Poinsett Counties in eastern Arkansas. D2 (Severe Drought): Portions of northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, West Tennessee, and north Mississippi. D1 (Moderate Drought): Portions of eastern Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, north Mississippi, and most of West Tennessee. D0: (Abnormally Dry): Portions of north Mississippi. Recent Change in Drought Intensity One Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: Portions of the Missouri Bootheel, northeast Arkansas, a small portion of West Tennessee, and a sliver of north Mississippi. No Change: Most of West Tennessee, portions of northeast and eastern Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and north Mississippi. Drought Improved: Portions of north Mississippi. Precipitation Precipitation was widely below normal across the Mid-South over the last 30 days. Most of the region did not accumulate to more than one inch of rain over the last 30 days. Temperature Temperatures were widely above normal, by 6-8 degrees, over the last week and month respectively. Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts Streamflow is below normal across the lower Mississippi River Basin and the Tennessee River Basin. Agricultural Impacts There are no known impacts at this time. Fire Hazard Impacts There are no known impacts at this time. Other Impacts There are no known impacts at this time. Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts The Mississippi River at Memphis is currently experiencing below normal flow. The extended river forecast shows a slow rise before another steady decline, but remaining above low water thresholds (-8ft). The Tennessee River is also experiencing below normal flow at Savannah, TN, and Bruceton, TN. Fire Hazard Impacts The wildland fire outlook for the Mid-South is expected to remain normal for the remainder of January. The wildland fire outlook for the Mid-South is expected to be above normal across West Tennessee, eastern Arkansas, and the Missouri Bootheel with normal conditions expected across north Mississippi in February. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Another mostly dry seven days with most of the area forecasted to see less than a tenth of an inch. Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Long range models continue to favor strong ridging over the western United States, resulting in favorable chances for several disturbances to move across the Mid-South and bring the risk of heavy precipitation late next week. Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage There is a 33-40% chance of experiencing above normal precipitation along and north of the I-40 corridor for the remainder of January. There are equal chances of experiencing above or below normal temperatures for the remainder of January for the entire Mid-South. Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage All of the drought across the Mid-South is favored to come to an end or at least improve by the end of April.