Drought Information Statement for 
East Central Florida
Valid: February 12, 2026
Issued By: National Weather Service Melbourne, FL
Contact Information: sr-mlb.webmaster@noaa.gov
This product will be updated February 26, 2026 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly.  
Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements.
Please visit https://www.weather.gov/mlb/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. 
Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates for regional drought status updates.

Well below normal rainfall this dry season has led to Moderate (D1) to Extreme (D3) drought development across east central Florida. 

Drier than normal weather is favored to continue through April, which is forecast to allow drought impacts to worsen through the Spring.  

Ongoing drought and recent freeze-damaged vegetation will create a heightened wildfire threat over the next few months.


U.S. Drought Monitor

Drought intensity and Extent
D4 (Exceptional Drought): None
D3 (Extreme Drought): Portions of the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County
D2 (Severe Drought): Northern Lake, Volusia, and southern Brevard counties, as well as portions of the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County
D1 (Moderate Drought): Southern Lake, Seminole, Orange and Osceola counties
D0: (Abnormally Dry): Northern Brevard County

Recent Change in Drought Intensity

One Week Drought Monitor Class Change. 
Drought Worsened - Across portions of the following counties: Lake, Volusia, Seminole, Orange, Osceola, Okeechobee, St. Lucie and Martin
No Change - Elsewhere across east central Florida


Precipitation
Since the start of November, rainfall has been rather limited across east central Florida. 

90-day rainfall totals are around 1-3” for much of the area. Amounts are a little higher, up to 4-5”, across southern Lake County eastward through northern Brevard County due to locally heavy rainfall early in December. 

These totals are around 4-8” inches below normal, or around 20-40% of normal for much of the area. 


Temperature
Multiple strong cold frontal passages during the second half of January and into early February, has led to below to well below normal temperatures across the area over the past 7 to 30 days. 

Hard freezes, which led to record breaking cold for the month of February, has damaged and even killed some sensitive vegetation across the area. 


Summary of Impacts

Hydrologic Impacts 
The latest 7-day average streamflow shows numerous locations reporting values that are below to much below normal (<25% of normal) across east central Florida. 
(https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/) 

Agricultural Impacts
The significantly drier conditions and recent freezes have caused non-irrigated cropland and pastures to become severely dry, leading cattle producers to supplement feeding.

Fire Hazard Impacts
Burn bans are in effect for several counties across east central Florida and the potential for significant wildland fires remains above normal. 
(https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive-services/outlooks)  

Other Impacts
Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) values have been increasing across the region, with highest values ranging from 550-649 across Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast, and around 300-499 across the remainder of east central Florida. 
(https://weather.fdacs.gov/KBDI/kbdi_index.html)

Mitigation Actions
Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information.


Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts
Streamflows continue to decrease across the area due to the much drier than normal conditions. 

Numerous streamflow values are now below (10-24% of normal) to well below normal (less than 10% of normal) across east central Florida. 


Fire Hazard Impacts
The risk of significant wildland fires remains above normal through the Spring due to ongoing drought, freeze-damaged vegetation and the outlook for drier than normal conditions to persist.
 
Burn bans are currently in effect for Brevard, Indian River, St. Lucie, Martin and Okeechobee counties. Yard debris burns are always prohibited in Orange County. The latest Florida Burn Ban map is available here.


Seven Day Precipitation Forecast
Greatest potential for rainfall will exist with a passing cold front late this weekend into early next week (Feb 15-16). 

Rainfall may be near to above normal in spots with this cold frontal passage, but amounts will likely not lead to any significant improvement in drought conditions. 


Long-Range Outlooks
The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage

The outlook for the 3-month period from February-April favors below normal rainfall across central Florida (~35-40% chance).

The outlook for the 3-month period from February-April favors average temperatures ending up above normal across central Florida (~50-60% chance).


Drought Outlook
The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage

With overall warmer than normal temperatures and drier than normal conditions favored through the remainder of the dry season (end of April), drought conditions are forecast to persist and likely worsen across east central Florida.