Drought Information Statement for 
East Central Florida
Valid: February 26, 2026
Issued By: National Weather Service Melbourne, FL
Contact Information: sr-mlb.webmaster@noaa.gov
This product will be updated March 12, 2026 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly.  
Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements.
Please visit https://www.weather.gov/mlb/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. 
Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates for regional drought status updates.

Drought conditions continue to expand and worsen, with Moderate (D1) to Extreme (D3) Drought across all of east central Florida. 

Below normal rainfall is overall favored to continue through April, which is forecast to allow drought impacts to worsen into the Spring. 
 
Ongoing drought and recent freeze-damaged vegetation will create a heightened wildfire threat over the next few months.


U.S. Drought Monitor

Drought intensity and Extent
D4 (Exceptional Drought): None
D3 (Extreme Drought): Across much of Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast, as well as northern portions of Lake and Volusia counties
D2 (Severe Drought): Portions of northern Lake and central Volusia counties, as well as southern Osceola and southern Brevard counties
D1 (Moderate Drought): Southern Lake, Seminole, Orange, northern Osceola, southern Volusia and northern Brevard counties
D0: (Abnormally Dry): None


Recent Change in Drought Intensity

One Week Drought Monitor Class Change. 
Drought Worsened - Across northern Brevard County
No Change - Elsewhere across east central Florida


Precipitation

Passing fronts have brought a couple rounds of showers and storms to the area since mid-February. However, rainfall has still been mostly below normal. 


90-day rainfall totals are around 1-3” for much of the area. Amounts are a little higher, up to 4-5”, across southern Lake County eastward through northern Brevard County mainly due to locally heavy rainfall early in December. 


These totals are around 3-8” inches below normal, or around 20-50% of normal for much of the area. 


Summary of Impacts

Hydrologic Impacts 
The latest 7-day average streamflow shows numerous locations reporting values that are below to much below normal (<25% of normal) across east central Florida. (https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/) 

Agricultural Impacts
The significantly drier conditions and recent freezes have caused non-irrigated cropland and pastures to become severely dry, leading cattle producers to supplement feeding.

Fire Hazard Impacts
Burn bans are in effect for several counties across east central Florida and the potential for significant wildland fires remains above normal. (https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive-services/outlooks)  

Other Impacts
Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) values have been increasing across the region, with highest values between 600-700 across Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast, and between 300-550 across the remainder of east central Florida. (https://weather.fdacs.gov/KBDI/kbdi_index.html)

Mitigation Actions
Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information.


Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts
Streamflows continue to decrease across the area due to the much drier than normal conditions. 

Numerous streamflow values are below (10-24% of normal) to well below normal (less than 10% of normal) across east central Florida. 


Fire Hazard Impacts
The risk of significant wildland fires remains above normal through the Spring due to ongoing drought, freeze-damaged vegetation and the outlook for drier than normal conditions to persist.
 
Burn bans are currently in effect for Brevard, Osceola, Indian River, St. Lucie, Martin and Okeechobee counties, as well as unincorporated areas of Volusia County. Yard debris burns are always prohibited in Orange County. The latest Florida Burn Ban map is available here.


Seven Day Precipitation Forecast

Greatest potential for rainfall will exist with a cold front as it approaches and moves through the area from Friday, February 27th into Saturday, February 28th. Isolated onshore moving showers will be possible behind this front into early March. 

Rainfall may be near to above normal for some areas with this cold frontal passage, but amounts will likely not lead to any significant improvement in drought conditions. 


Long-Range Outlooks
The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage

The outlook for the 3-month period from March-May is for equal chances for above, near and below normal rainfall across central Florida (~33% chance for each category).

The outlook for the 3-month period from March-May favors average temperatures ending up above normal across central Florida (~40% chance).


Drought Outlook
The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage

With an outlook of overall warmer than normal temperatures, and drier than normal conditions favored through at least March and likely into April, drought conditions are forecast to persist and likely worsen across east central Florida into the Spring.