Drought Information Statement for East Central Florida Valid May 8, 2025 Issued By: WFO Melbourne, FL Contact Information: sr-mlb.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated May 29th or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/mlb/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/ for regional drought status updates. Below normal rainfall has continued over the past month, with the addition of extreme (D3) drought to northern portions of east central Florida, as well as the continued expansion of moderate (D1) to severe (D2) drought across the area. An increase in showers and storms will produce above normal rainfall to the region through mid-May, which is forecast to bring some relief to drought impacts. U.S. Drought Monitor Drought intensity and Extent D4 (Exceptional Drought): None D3 (Extreme Drought): Northern Lake and Volusia counties D2 (Severe Drought): southern Lake, southern Volusia, Seminole, north Brevard Orange and Martin counties D1 (Moderate Drought): much of Osceola and Okeechobee counties, as well as central Brevard and southern St. Lucie counties D0: (Abnormally Dry): Southern Brevard, Indian River and northern St Lucie counties Recent Change in Drought Intensity Four Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: all of east central Florida by 1 to 2 categories No Change: Limited areas of Lake and Volusia counties Drought Improved: none Precipitation Over the past 90 days, rainfall has been well below normal for much of the area. Greatest rainfall deficits exist across areas near to north of a line from Orlando to Cape Canaveral and portions of southern Martin County where precipitation totals are around 4-7” below normal (around 25-50% of normal). Pockets of Lake and Volusia counties have seen less than 25% of normal rainfall. Across extreme southern Brevard County, southward through Fort Pierce, periods of locally heavy rainfall have led to totals that are near to slightly below normal over the past 90 days. Temperature While average temperatures in March, were generally closer to normal, a much warmer February and April has led to overall average temperatures over the past 90 days that range around 1-3 degrees above normal across the area. This above normal warmth has also assisted in worsening drought conditions across the region. Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts The latest 7-day average streamflow indicates an increase in locations reporting values that are below normal (10-24% of normal) to much below normal (<10% of normal), across east central Florida. (https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/) Agricultural Impacts Little rainfall this spring has led to an increase in reports of impacts to the agricultural and livestock communities. (See Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR)) Fire Hazard Impacts Burn bans are currently in effect for Lake, Volusia, Seminole, Brevard, Osceola, Orange, and Okeechobee counties. Also, due to the drier conditions, the potential for significant wildland fires remains above normal for May and June. (https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive-services/outlooks) Other Impacts Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) values remain high across the region, with values ranging from 450-599 across much of east central Florida. (https://fireweather.fdacs.gov/wx/kbdi_index.html) Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Streamflows have continued to decrease across the region due to continued below normal precipitation and warmer conditions. Values averaged over the past 7 days are below normal (10-24% of normal) in the upper and middle Saint Johns Basin and are normal (25-75% of normal) in the upper Kissimmee River basin and Treasure Coast. Fire Hazard Impacts Across east central Florida, burn bans are now in effect for Lake, Volusia, Seminole, Brevard, Osceola, Orange, and Okeechobee counties. The potential for significant wildland fires remains above normal for May. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast An increase in moisture along and south of a lingering frontal boundary across the southeast U.S. will lead to continued development of showers and storms across east central Florida each afternoon and evening through at least early next week (May 13th). This is forecast to lead to above normal rainfall across the area through mid-May. Precipitation amounts over the next 7 days are currently forecast up to 4-6” across Brevard/Osceola counties northward and around 2-3” across Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast, which should help alleviate ongoing drought conditions. Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage The outlook for the 3-month period from May-July favors average temperatures ending up above normal across central Florida (~50-60% chance). The outlook for the 3-month period from May-July slightly favors above normal rainfall across central Florida (~35-40% chance). Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage The 8-14 day CPC outlook covering the period from May 15-21st, has slightly greater probabilities (~35-40%) of drier than normal conditions returning across east central Florida. This will likely delay any additional improvement in drought conditions into the second half of May. However, as the wet season begins across central Florida (typically toward late May/early June), then drought conditions are generally forecast to continue to improve or even end through late July.