Drought Information Statement for East Central Florida Valid May 15, 2025 Issued By: WFO Melbourne, FL Contact Information: sr-mlb.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated May 29th or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/mlb/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/ for regional drought status updates. Above normal rainfall during the May 6-12th period helped bring some relief to drought conditions across the area, but moderate (D1) to severe (D2) drought conditions remain across portions of east central Florida. A period of hot and dry conditions are forecast to continue through the latter half of May, which will stall improvement, and may allow drought conditions to worsen and expand once again across the area through late Spring. U.S. Drought Monitor Drought intensity and Extent D4 (Exceptional Drought): None D3 (Extreme Drought): None D2 (Severe Drought): Northern Lake and northern Volusia counties D1 (Moderate Drought): Southern Lake, southern Volusia, Seminole, north Brevard, portions of south Brevard, Orange, southern Okeechobee and Martin counties D0: (Abnormally Dry): much of Osceola and Okeechobee counties, portions of central and southern Brevard County, Indian River County and much of St. Lucie County Recent Change in Drought Intensity One Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: Limited area of southern Brevard County No Change: Much of southern Brevard County, Indian River County and northern St. Lucie County Drought Improved: Across much of east central Florida Precipitation Above normal rainfall from May 6-12th helped alleviate precip deficits over the past 90 days across east central Florida. Areas near to just southeast of the I-4 corridor and across portions of Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast now have rainfall totals for this period that are near to above normal by 1-3 inches. Lingering rainfall deficits still exist elsewhere across the area over the past 90 days, especially across Lake, Volusia, portions of central Brevard and Martin counties. Precipitation totals across these areas are around 2-4” below normal over the past 3 months, or around 50-75% of normal. Temperature Average temperatures in March were generally closer to normal. However, a warmer second half of February and first half of May has led to overall average temperatures over the past 90 days that range around 1-3 degrees above normal across the area. Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts The latest 7-day average streamflow indicates streamflows have significantly increased across the area, and are now mostly near normal (25-75% of normal) across east central Florida. (https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/) Agricultural Impacts Through early May there was an increase in reports of impacts to the agricultural and livestock communities due to limited rainfall this dry season. However, with recent above normal rainfall there have been no additional reports over the past 7 days. (See Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR)) Fire Hazard Impacts Burn bans have been lifted for most counties across east central Florida due to recent above normal rainfall, except for Lake County where a burn ban remains in place. Also, due to the overall drier conditions during the winter and spring, the potential for significant wildland fires remains above normal for May and June. (https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive-services/outlooks) Other Impacts Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) values have lowered (improved) due to the recent rainfall, with values now ranging from 100-399 across much of east central Florida. (https://fireweather.fdacs.gov/wx/kbdi_index.html) Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Streamflows have significantly increased over the past 7 days due to the above normal rainfall across the region from May 6-12th. Values averaged over the past 7 days are now around normal (25-75% of normal) across much of east central Florida, and much above normal along portions of the Volusia County coast. Fire Hazard Impacts Across east central Florida, burn bans that were in effect have been lifted for most counties, but still remain in effect for Lake County. The potential for significant wildland fires remains above normal for May. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast A strong ridge aloft will build across Florida leading to hot and mostly dry conditions over the next several days. Little to no rainfall is forecast across east central Florida through May 22nd. These conditions will stall any additional improvement to drought conditions across the area. Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage. The outlook for the 3-month period from June-August favors average temperatures ending up above normal across central Florida (~50-60% chance). The outlook for the 3-month period from June-August favors above normal rainfall across central Florida (~40-50% chance). Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage. The 8-14 day CPC outlook covering the period from May 23-29th, has slightly greater probabilities (~35-40%) of drier than normal conditions continuing across east central Florida. This will continue to stall any drought improvement and may even lead drought worsening and expanding once again across the area through late May. However, as the wet season begins across central Florida (typically toward late May/early June), then drought conditions are generally forecast to continue to improve and eventually end across Florida during the summer months (June through August).