Issued By: WFO Mobile/Pensacola Contact Information: sr-mob.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated September 19, 2024 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit weather.gov/mob/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. SEVERE DROUGHT PERSISTS FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST Severe drought maintains its grip over much of the interior of southwest AL generally along and east of I-65, including much of the western FL Panhandle. Moderate drought is in place for much of the remainder of southwest AL and portions of interior southeast MS. Drought Information Statement for southeast MS, southwest AL, and the western FL Panhandle Valid 09/12/2024 U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for the SE US and central Gulf Coast Drought intensity and Extent D2 (Severe Drought): Lower Alabama River valley, eastward across the I-65 corridor. Much of the western Florida Panhandle. D1 (Moderate Drought): Much of the remainder of southwest AL, westward into Greene and Wayne Co’s in MS. D0: (Abnormally Dry): Remainder of interior southeast MS, into central and northern Mobile and northern Choctaw Co’s in AL. Recent Change in Drought Intensity One Week Drought Monitor Class Change: Drought Worsened: Over eastern Covington Co. AL and far northern Crenshaw Co. AL. No Change: For much of the remainder of the local area. Drought Improved: Northern half of Choctaw Co. AL. Precipitation Listing Shows Rainfall Totals for Select Sites 8/1/24 to 9/11/24. Includes NWS ASOS and COOP Sites. * Indicates Record Lowest for Period. Station Rainfall Normal % of Normal Brewton AL 3NNE * 0.72 9.13 7.9% Bay Minette AL 1.18 9.77 12.1% Niceville FL 1.44 10.12 14.2% Middleton Field Evergreen AL 1.67 7.02 23.8% Destin FL 2.98 11.72 25.4% Waynesboro MS 2W 1.64 6.14 26.7% Pensacola FL 3.09 9.94 31.1% Crestview FL 2.87 8.35 34.4% Wiggins MS 2.97 8.42 35.3% Pensacola FL 7NNE 3.85 8.99 42.8% Mobile AL 4.39 8.89 49.4% Downtown Mobile AL 5.48 8.95 61.2% Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts: Due to recent midweek rainfall ending Thursday AM 9/12/24 from Hurricane Francine, the US Geological Survey (USGS) indicates that flow and stage on many area rivers and streams has improved to normal or above normal. There are a few stages that continue to run below normal. Rivers and streams that are running below normal in stage, may result in typically deeply submerged objects being likely closer to the water’s surface or in some cases exposed, presenting a waterway hazard for safe recreational boating and commercial navigation. Agricultural Impacts: Data from US Department of Agriculture (USDA) indicates that topsoil moisture in both MS and AL is short to very short. Both MS and AL are much drier than the 5 and 10 year means for this time of year. Drought conditions have contributed to Alabama's worst pine beetle outbreak since 2001, leading to widespread damage (Source: AL Political Reporter, Montgomery AL). Supplemental feeding initiatives are required to maintain livestock condition. Fire Hazard Impacts: Data from the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) Predictive Services Unit indicates the most significant wildland fire potential will be focused over the Mid-South in September. For the remainder of the local area, decayed timber and very dry underbrush in area forests along with dry grasslands will promote favorable conditions for fire growth and spread. It’s also important to note that in the event of strong cold frontal passages, periods of critically low daytime humidity in combination with gusty northerly winds will bring periods of increased wildfire potential. Mitigation Actions: Water conservation techniques are strongly encouraged in drought areas. Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Local water restriction ordinances may be in place. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts - Beneficial rains ending Thursday AM from Hurricane Francine resulted in many area rivers and streams seeing an upward response and improvement to flow and stages. There continues to be some rivers and streams at below normal flow and stage though. To view the most current stages and flow for each state’s, stream and river points, please visit: MS: https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?r=ms&m=real AL: https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?r=al&m=real FL: https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?r=fl&m=real Agricultural Impacts - Crop condition in the driest of areas is very poor. Crop disease and insect damage elevated. Pasture lands provide little to no livestock feed. Supplemental feeding is required to maintain livestock condition. Leading to very poor crop condition is the short to very short subsoil moisture being drier than normal. The latest state-wide top soil moisture metrics vs 5 year means: (Depth upper 6”, courtesy of USDA 09/08/24). - MS: 47% Dry (Avg: 44.8%). - AL: 68% Very Dry (Avg: 26.6%). - FL: 12% Near Normal (Avg: 11.6%). It is recommended that farmers reach out to local USDA office for details on available funding assistance. Fire Hazard Impacts - Decayed timber and very dry underbrush in area forests along with dry grasslands pose an above normal risk for development and spread of fire. It’s also important to note that in the event of strong cold frontal passages, periods of critically low daytime humidity in combination with gusty northerly winds will bring periods of increased wildfire potential. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast - Due the combination of the remnant low of Francine interacting with a southward moving front, the bulk of the rainfall, ranging mostly 3 to 7 inches, perhaps locally higher is focused to the north of the central Gulf coast region, over the Mid-South and TN River Valley to northern AL into central GA. Most of the rainfall appears to fall in these areas from Thursday and on into the weekend. Long-Range Outlooks - September’s outlook for temperature and precipitation is leaning above normal for the central Gulf coast. Drought Outlook - The expectation of above normal September rainfall suggests that this occurrence of drought will be of short duration.