Drought Information Statement for southeast Mississippi, southwest Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle Valid: October 1, 2026 This product will be updated October 29, 2026 (or sooner) if drought conditions change significantly All currently available products: drought.gov/drought-information-statements (https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements) Previous local statements: weather.gov/mob/DroughtInformationStatement (https://www.weather.gov/mob/DroughtInformationStatement) Regional Drought Status Updates: https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates (https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates) DROUGHT WORSENS OVER THE INTERIOR Extreme drought develops over portions of the area, north of U.S. Highway 84. Severe drought gradually expands over the I-65 corridor. U.S. Drought Monitor Latest U.S. Drought Monitor (https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/current/current_huc03_trd.png) for the Southeast US and central Gulf Coast Drought Intensity and Extent: D3 (Extreme Drought): Develops over eastern Wilcox into a small portion of west central Butler Counties in Alabama. D2 (Severe Drought): Inside of a line from Pine Hill to Georgiana to Brantley to Andalusia to Brewton to Beatrice Alabama. Much of Perry County Mississippi. D1 (Moderate Drought): Much of the remainder of southwest Alabama and southeast Mississippi. D0: (Abnormally Dry): Much of the northwest Florida Panhandle westward to southern Baldwin County in Alabama. Recent Change in Drought Intensity Latest 1-week change map (https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/chng/png/current/current_huc03_chng_1W.png) for the Southeast US and central Gulf Coast One Week Drought Monitor Class Change: Drought Worsened: Portions of far interior southwest Alabama to portions of south central Alabama, east of I-65. Southern Mobile county in Alabama. No Change: The remainder of the local area. Precipitation Summary of conditions and impacts: Since September 1st, only a few pockets of near to above normal rainfall or 100 to 200% of normal has occurred over the northwest Florida Panhandle and the state borders of southwest Alabama and interior southeast Mississippi. The largest deficits against the 30-day means were most prevalent along the I-65 corridor and eastern U.S. Highway 84 corridors of southwest and south-central Alabama where 50% and less of normal rainfall evolved. Summary of Impacts See Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) (https://droughtimpacts.unl.edu/Tools/ConditionMonitoringObservations.aspx) and Drought Impacts Reporter (https://www.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/46afe627bb60422f85944d70069c09cf) Hydrologic Impacts The US Geological Survey (USGS) indicates stages on several local river and/or stream points are below to much below normal. Rivers and streams that are experiencing low water levels will likely result in what is typically deeply submerged objects being likely closer to the water’s surface or in many cases completely exposed. This presents increased waterway hazards for safe recreational boating and commercial navigation. Agricultural Impacts Crop condition in the driest of areas is poor, more susceptible to disease and insect damage. Supplemental feeding will likely be needed to maintain livestock health. Fire Hazard Impacts Although the risk of significant wildland fire is above normal from the state of Mississippi westward, know the law before you burn. Anyone who burns a field, grassland, or woodland without a burn permit may be subject to significant fines or prosecution for committing a Class B misdemeanor. Mitigation Actions Water conservation techniques are strongly encouraged in drought areas. Please refer to your municipality and/or your water provider for mitigation information. Local water restriction ordinances may be in place. Hydrologic Conditions & Impacts Select River/Creek Data Most current stages and flow for each state’s stream and river points: Mississippi (https://waterdata.usgs.gov/state/Mississippi/) and Alabama (https://waterdata.usgs.gov/state/Alabama/) and Florida (https://waterdata.usgs.gov/state/Florida/) Summary of conditions and impacts: Several local waterway flows are at below to much below normal levels. Rivers and streams that are experiencing low water levels will likely result in what is typically deeply submerged objects being likely closer to the water’s surface or in some cases completely exposed presenting a waterway hazard for safe recreational boating and commercial navigation. Agricultural Impacts Summary of conditions and impacts: Per latest data from the USDA September 27, 2026, top and subsoil moisture strata reflects greatest areal deficits in Mississippi and Alabama. Topsoil/Subsoil Moisture % Short to Very Short: Mississippi - 84% / 79% Alabama - 56% / 52% Mississippi - 25% / 24% Crop condition in the driest of areas is poor, more susceptible to disease and insect damage. Supplemental feeding will likely be needed to maintain livestock health. It is recommended that farmers reach out to local USDA office for details on available funding assistance. Fire Hazard Impacts Summary of conditions and impacts: The risk of significant wildland fire is above normal from east texas to across the Lower Mississippi Valley through October. It’s important to know the law before burning. Anyone who burns a field, grassland, or woodland without a burn permit may be subject to significant fines or prosecution for committing a Class B misdemeanor. Wildfire Potential Outlooks (https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive-services/outlooks) from the National Interagency Coordination Center Latest Burn Bans and/or Advisories By State: Mississippi (http://mfc.ms.gov) and Alabama (http://forestry.alabama.gov) and Florida (http://fdacs.gov/Divisions-Offices/Florida-Forest-Service) 7-Day Precipitation Forecast Summary of conditions and impacts: A slow moving front, combined with a slow moving upper level storm system brings a period of extended rainfall, some of which potentially heavy, to the deep south through the first week of October. Storm total rainfall for the period Friday to Monday October 2nd to the 5th, could add up to 3 to 5 inches over the interior to 5 to 10 inches toward and south of the I-10 corridor. Locally higher rainfall above these amounts cannot be ruled out. There is increasing confidence of flash flooding, especially in urban, lower lying areas that are subject to rapid water rises during heavy rain events. Long-Range Outlooks Summary of conditions and impacts: A pattern shift looks to be setting up and suggests some good news on the horizon in the longer term regarding precipitation. To close out the year, rainfall is favored to lean above normal (40 to 60%) over the local area during the October 1st to December 31st time-frame. Latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/) webpage Drought Outlook Latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/) webpage Summary of conditions and impacts: The seasonal outlook calls for drought to improve or end entirely over the local area by December 31st. Latest Climate Prediction Center Drought Outlooks: Monthly Outlook (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/mdo_summary.php) and Seasonal Outlook (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/sdo_summary.php)