Drought Information Statement for Central/Southern MN and Western WI
Valid October 15, 2026
Issued By: National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen, MN
Contact Information: nws.twincities@noaa.gov
This product will be updated November 19, 2026 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly.  
Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements.
Please visit https://www.weather.gov/MPX/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. 
Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates for regional drought status updates.
There has been a mix of improvements and persistence in drought conditions over the last month.
Enough rain has occurred to keep any expansion of drought at bay in the last month.

U.S. Drought Monitor

Drought intensity and Extent
D4 (Exceptional Drought): No areas locally

D3 (Extreme Drought): Far northern Rusk County in WI.

D2 (Severe Drought): Most of east central MN and western WI and much of Lac Qui Parle county in western MN.

D1 (Moderate Drought): The rest of central MN into southwest MN.

D0: (Abnormally Dry): Surrounding the D1 drought in southwest up into southern portions of central MN and into northern portions of southeast MN.
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Recent Change in Drought Intensity
Four Week Drought Monitor Class Change. 
Drought Worsened: small slivers of central MN.
 
No Change: Much of western, central, and eastern MN and most of west central WI.

Drought Improved: Southern MN up into the Augusta and Fairchild area of southeast Eau Claire county in WI.
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Precipitation
Dryness over the last 30 days has been centered across the Upper Peninsula of Michigan back west across northern WI into east central MN
At 90 days, abnormal dryness across central MN appears
For as dry as it has been across northern WI, very wet conditions have persisted across the I-90 corridor.


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Temperature
The last 30 days have been very mild across the region

Through October 15th, much of central and southern MN and western WI had still yet to receive their first freeze of the Fall.

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Summary of Impacts

Hydrologic Impacts 
Low stream flows continue to persist in the upper MS River and St. Croix River valleys. (USGS Streamflows, MN Streamflow)

Agricultural Impacts
Harvest season is progressing quickly, with September rains allowing for some soil moisture recharge in MN, but dryness across western WI has kept soil moistures dry there. (State USDA Crop Reports)

Fire Hazard Impacts
As vegetation continues to go dormant, we are see occasional high fire danger days when there are stronger winds. (MN Fire Danger, WI Fire Danger)

Other Impacts
No known additional impacts at this time.

Mitigation Actions
There are currently no known abnormal mitigation measures implemented.


Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts
Stream flows continue to run well below normal for the Mississippi headwaters and the St. Croix valley.

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Agricultural Impacts
Soil moisture conditions have begun to improve, though dryness persists across central MN and northern WI as we continue to see the impacts of the summer drought.
More points if you need them
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Fire Hazard Impacts
Now that plants are beginning to become dormant, we are seeing a typical increase in the Fall fire danger

Occasional days of high fire danger are now occurring when stronger winds are observed.

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Seven Day Precipitation Forecast
Very little rain is expected between October 17th and October 23rd

For the end of October, there is a favoring toward above normal precipitation over southern MN and western WI.

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Long-Range Outlooks
The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage
For November, there is no strong signal toward above or below precipitation across MN and western WI.

Weather patterns supporting above normal temperatures are expected to persist into November, with above normal temperature probabilities favored across all of MN and WI.

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Drought Outlook
The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage
We are getting into our climatologically low liquid equivalent precipitation time of the year. Therefore, it is difficult to move the drought needle much in either direction during the cold season, with drought conditions expected to persist through the rest of 2026.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
 
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