Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 444 AM EST Mon Nov 28 2016 .SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)... Surface low over the eastern Dakotas extends cold front south into central Oklahoma. This front will progress east through today with the boundary reaching Middle Tennessee early tonight and then weakening as it moves over the Appalachians late Tuesday. Currently ahead of the front, a fairly broad band of showers and widely scattered thunderstorms extends across central Arkansas and west Tennessee. Water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicate a digging trough exiting the Rocky Mountains this morning with a fairly large moisture plume preceding it while feeding middle level moisture into the SE US. Models are in good agreement on the progression of this system and most importantly, the pcpn amounts likely for our area in the next few days. PW values of 1.1 to 1.3 inches across the area are in the 90th percentile for late November and should finally provide the deep moisture necessary to generate a substantial rainfall for our area. With the first round of pcpn through Tuesday, we can generally expect from 0.75-1.5 inches south of I-40 with areas north of there looking to get 0.50-1.0 inch of rain before Tuesday evening. Ahead of the front a very strong 850 mb jet with max winds of 70 kts will move through the area with strongest winds expected in the overnight hours tonight before dropping off rapidly after 12Z on Tuesday. Winds gusting to over 60 mph across highest elevations in SW Virginia and along the Appalachian mountains are prompting a High Wind Warning for those areas from this afternoon until tomorrow morning with strongest winds likely around midnight. Elsewhere across the area, wind gusts up to 40 mph are possible as this jet moves through, will therefore issue wind advisory for the remainder of the area during that same time period. Although there may be a few stray showers possible later this afternoon over the southern areas, the timing of the best pcpn area wide looks to be after 00Z tonight persisting into early Tuesday afternoon before diminishing as the front stalls and weakens while the best upper level support exits to the NE. Strong winds...cold air aloft...and favorable vertical shear profiles on Tuesday could set off some tstms... some possibly severe for damaging winds or hail. It does appear that best combination of shear and instability is late Tuesday into Tuesday night when SFC-1 km shear reaches in excess of 30 kt while SBCAPE values are over 1000 J/kg across the southern third of the area...making it unable to rule out a possible isolated tornado. .LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Monday)... Behind first front Tuesday there may be brief break in showers but as deep upper trough remains over eastern half of the country a new surface low and cold front moves into the mid Mississippi Valley Tuesday night and Wednesday. There will be a good chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms tuesday night and Wednesday as mild temperatures and humid unstable air mass continue within broad upper trough. Lows Tuesday night will be very mild mostly mid 50s to near 60. Highs Wednesday ahead of frontal system will again be mild in the lower to mid 60s. PW values are high with rainfall amounts Tuesday night around a couple tenths in the northeast to around 0.75 inches along the Cumberland Plateau. Another 1 to 2 inches could fall by Wednesday evening. Large upper trough finally shifts east Wednesday night ushering in colder temperatures early Thursday and highs Thursday only in the lower to mid 50s. High pressure builds in Thursday and continues through the first half of Saturday. A system developing in the gulf will spread another area of rain into the eastern Tennessee Valley late Saturday and Sunday. This wetter pattern should help ease the wildfires and end any further worsening from the drought. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 57 73 57 / 30 100 50 80 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 58 73 56 / 10 100 70 80 Oak Ridge, TN 63 55 71 56 / 20 100 60 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 50 70 52 / 10 90 80 80 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Wind Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Tuesday for Cherokee-Clay. TN...High Wind Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Tuesday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson- Northwest Carter-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter- Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi. Wind Advisory from 1 PM EST /noon CST/ this afternoon to 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Tuesday for Anderson-Bledsoe-Bradley- Campbell-Claiborne-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton- Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs- Morgan-NW Blount-North Sevier-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie- Sullivan-Union-Washington TN-West Polk. VA...High Wind Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Tuesday for Wise. Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Tuesday for Lee-Russell-Scott-Washington. && $$