Drought Information Statement for Eastern NE and Southwest IA Valid January 9, 2023 Issued By: NWS Omaha/Valley, NE Contact Information: nws.omaha@noaa.gov This product will be updated February 18, 2024 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit weather.gov/oax/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Drought conditions over the past six weeks generally improved across the area, especially for eastern Nebraska. Drought intensity and Extent D4 (Exceptional Drought): With improvement in Butler County, there is no part of Nebraska considered to be in exceptional drought for the first time in 17 months, D3 (Extreme Drought): Pottawattamie and Shelby counties in western Iowa. Seward, Saline, and Jefferson counties in eastern Nebraska. D2 (Severe Drought): Thurston, Burt, Colfax, Dodge, Washington, Saunders, Douglas, Sarpy, Seward, Lancaster, Cass, Saline, Jefferson, and Gage counties in Eastern NE. Monona, Harrison, Shelby, Pottawattamie, Mills and Montgomery in southwest IA. D1 (Moderate Drought): Most of the remainder of southwest Iowa and much of southeast Nebraska. D0 (Abnormally Dry): A ribbon of northeast NE, southeast NE and southern Page County, Iowa. Recent Change in Drought Intensity One Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: None No Change: The bulk of the area Drought Improved: Two large swaths of eastern Nebraska Drought category adjustments tend to slow in the fall and winter months. Changes are more pronounced on longer timelines: Change Maps Over the Past 30 Days Precipitation As is the trend in winters with a strong El Nino, we’ve seen a wetter than normal winter w/ regular bouts of snow. Most of the area has two to three times the normal amount of precip over the past 30 days. Over the Past 30 Days Temperature After a particularly warm December (warmest on record globally and in Minnesota), cold air has enveloped the Northern Plains and will linger through the foreseeable future. Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts Near record dry flow is expected this week on the Missouri River near Omaha due to the drought and an ice jam upstream near Ponca, NE. Agricultural Impacts Many Christmas tree farms, including across Iowa and Nebraska reported that drought conditions killed most of the seedlings planted in 2023. Fire Hazard Impacts All counties in the area are considered to now have “critical” fuel status. Thankfully, the state is currently covered in snow. Other Impacts Hundreds of dead deer have been spotted in Southern Iowa this winter. Experts say the cause is Epizootic Hemorrhagic Disease, or EHD. Conventional wisdom holds that the disease gets more prevalent in years with a drought or a flood Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Streamflow reflects where the precipitation has been falling over the past 30 days. Much of northeast Nebraska is flowing near normal. Fewer Nebraska and Iowa rivers are running below normal than had been running low in the past few months. Image Captions: Left USGS 7 day average streamflow NE HUC map Right USGS 7 day average streamflow IA HUC map Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture remains above normal in northeast Nebraska. Soil moisture continues to run below normal for much of the remainder of the area. The crop moisture index is running near normal. Fire Hazard Impacts All counties in the local area are considered to now have “critical” fuel status. The majority of fuels (dried corn in many cases) will support extreme fire behavior and spread when the weather conditions meet Red Flag criteria. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast There are small precipitation chances in the forecast in the next 7 days. Amounts are forecast to remain below 0.10”. January and February are the driest two months of the year in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. Climate Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage The temperature outlook for January leans toward a colder than normal January and that has played out so far. Precipitation is often higher in the winter during strong El Ninos and that, too, has come to fruition in January 2024. Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Winter is the typically the driest season of the year in the Corn Belt. Drought category changes typically slow as a result. The seasonal 3 month drought outlook calls for drought to persist across much of the region.