Drought Information Statement for South-Central & Southwest Arizona, and Southeast California Valid April 24, 2025 Issued By: National Weather Service Phoenix Contact Information: nws.phoenix@noaa.gov This product may be updated around May 19, 2025 Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements Please visit https://www.weather.gov/psr/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/?dews_region=130&state=All for regional outlook Drought conditions persist with well below normal precipitation over the past year Extreme to Exceptional Drought continues across central and western Arizona, as well as southeast California U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor Image Caption: U.S. Drought Monitor valid 5 am MST April 22, 2025 EXCEPTIONAL AND EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA Drought intensity and Extent D4 (Exceptional Drought): northern La Paz, central Maricopa counties D3 (Extreme Drought): southern La Paz, Yuma, southwest and eastern Maricopa, Gila, and northern Pinal counties U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor Image Caption: U.S. Drought Monitor valid 5 am PDT April 22, 2025 SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA Drought intensity and Extent D4 (Exceptional Drought): far northeast Riverside County D3 (Extreme Drought): Much of Imperial and most of eastern Riverside counties D2 (Severe Drought): central Riverside and far north-central Imperial counties Precipitation Rainfall across much of southern and western Arizona, as well as SE California has been less than 25% of normal so far this Water Year (since Oct 2024) Many locations in far SW Arizona have received minimal since the 2024 monsoon, and stand in record dryness Rapid intensification of short term drought impacts have been experienced in the past 6-12 months Image Captions: Left - Water Year Precipitation Percentile Ranking Right - Water Year Percent of Normal Precipitation Data Courtesy WestWide Drought Tracker. Data over the past 6 months ending March 2025 Temperature Average temperatures this Water Year (since Oct 2024) are up to 2-3oF above normal This abnormal warmth in the top 10th percentile has heightened evapotranspiration losses and more rapidly depleted soil moisture affecting vegetation and streamflow Image Captions: Left - Water Year Temperature Percentile Ranking Right - Water Year Departure from Normal Temperature Data Courtesy WestWide Drought Tracker Data over the past 5 months ending March 2025 Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Tier 1 shortage conditions remain in effect on the Colorado River impacting water deliveries in Arizona for 2025 Unregulated inflow into Lake Powell is expected to be around 70% of average this spring and summer which will keep Lake Powell and Mead water levels depressed such that Tier 1 restrictions are likely through 2026. Agricultural Impacts There are no known impacts at this time Fire Hazard Impacts Wildfires are becoming more prevalent entering the typical spring/early summer season stressing resources across the Southwest. Due to expansive, growing drought, the threat for significant wildfires this year is greater than average. Other Impacts Ranchers in western Arizona have experienced a significant lack of forage growth due to lack of rainfall the past year. Supplemental feed and water hauling have been necessary in many locations. Mitigation Actions A Drought Emergency Declaration remains in effect for the state of Arizona as signed by the governor in accordance with the Arizona Drought Preparedness Plan. The continuation of this Drought Emergency has been recommended by the Drought Interagency Coordinating Group Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Small and medium unregulated rivers and streams across most of Arizona were flowing at below average levels - many near record lows for this time of year Small to medium sized reservoirs remained near the long term average, but below levels measured last year Larger reservoirs on the Colorado river continue to hover well below average forcing shortage conditions and reduced water deliveries Image Caption: Left: USGS 14 day average streamflow compared to historical streamflow valid Apr 23, 2025. Data courtesy of USGS Right: Arizona reservoir status. Data courtesy of CLIMAS Fire Hazard Impacts Persistent dry conditions continue to support dead fine fuels below 6% over much of the local area despite recent light rainfall The threat of significant large wildland fires will be above normal across much of Arizona in May with the potential for additional expansion through the remainder of the spring and early summer. Image Caption: Left - 10-hour dead fuel moisture from Wildland Fire Assessment System Right - Significant Wildland Fire Potential Monthly Outlook for May 2025 Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. If using this slide: Please limit to 2 total images per slide. Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Temperatures over the next 3 months (May-Jun-Jul) have better chances of averaging at above normal levels There are near equal odds for total precipitation during the May-Jun-Jul time frame to be above, below, or near normal (with the exception of SE Arizona where odds are tilted slightly towards above normal Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Widespread Severe to Extreme Drought currently exists over central and western Arizona, as well as southeast California The remainder of the spring typically experiences very little rainfall with no improvement in drought expected Until monsoon fully becomes established over the Southwest, drought should persist or worsen