Drought Information Statement for South-Central & Southwest Arizona, and Southeast California Valid May 21, 2025 Issued By: National Weather Service Phoenix Contact Information: nws.phoenix@noaa.gov This product may be updated around June 21, 2025 Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements Please visit https://www.weather.gov/psr/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/?dews_region=130&state=All for regional outlook Drought conditions persist with well below normal precipitation since last summer Widespread Extreme Drought continues across central and western Arizona, as well as southeast California U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor Image Caption: U.S. Drought Monitor valid 5 am MST May 13, 2025 EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA Drought intensity and Extent D4 (Exceptional Drought): far SW Yuma County D3 (Extreme Drought): southern and eastern La Paz, much of Yuma, Maricopa, Gila, and Pinal counties D2 (Severe Drought): Northwest La Paz County U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor Image Caption: U.S. Drought Monitor valid 5 am PDT May 13, 2025 SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA Drought intensity and Extent D3 (Extreme Drought): Much of Imperial and far southeast Riverside counties D2 (Severe Drought): much of eastern Riverside and far north-central Imperial counties Precipitation Rainfall across most of southern and western Arizona, as well as SE California has been less than 25% of normal so far this Water Year (since Oct 2024) Many locations in far SW Arizona have received minimal since the 2024 monsoon, and stand in record dryness Intensification of short term drought impacts have been experienced in the past 6-12 months Image Captions: Left - Water Year Precipitation Percentile Ranking Right - Water Year Percent of Normal Precipitation Data Courtesy WestWide Drought Tracker. Data over the past 6 months ending April 2025 Temperature Average temperatures this Water Year (since Oct 2024) are up to 2-3oF above normal This abnormal warmth in the top 10th percentile has heightened evapotranspiration losses and more rapidly depleted soil moisture affecting vegetation and streamflow Image Captions: Left - Water Year Temperature Percentile Ranking Right - Water Year Departure from Normal Temperature Data Courtesy WestWide Drought Tracker Data over the past 5 months ending April 2025 Hydrologic Impacts Tier 1 shortage conditions remain in effect on the Colorado River impacting water deliveries in Arizona for 2025 Unregulated inflow into Lake Powell is expected to be around 60% of average through this summer which will keep Lake Powell and Mead water levels depressed such that Tier 1 restrictions are likely through 2026. Agricultural Impacts There are no known impacts at this time Fire Hazard Impacts Wildfires are becoming more prevalent entering the typical spring/early summer season stressing resources across the Southwest. Due to expansive drought, the threat for significant wildfires this year is greater than average. Other Impacts Ranchers in parts of Arizona have experienced a significant lack of forage growth due to lack of rainfall the past year. Supplemental feed and water hauling have been necessary in many locations. Mitigation Actions A Drought Emergency Declaration remains in effect for the state of Arizona as signed by the governor in accordance with the Arizona Drought Preparedness Plan. The continuation of this Drought Emergency has been recommended by the Drought Interagency Coordinating Group Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Small and medium unregulated rivers and streams across Arizona were generally flowing at below average levels with a few in the near average range Small to medium sized reservoirs were below levels measured last year and near or below long term averages Larger reservoirs on the Colorado river continue to hover well below average forcing shortage conditions and reduced water deliveries Image Caption: Left: USGS 14 day average streamflow compared to historical streamflow valid May 20, 2025. Data courtesy of USGS Right: Arizona reservoir status. Data courtesy of CLIMAS Fire Hazard Impacts Persistent dry conditions continue to support dead fine fuels below 6% over much of the local area The threat of significant large wildland fires will be above normal across much of Arizona in May and June awaiting moisture return during the onset of monsoon Image Caption: Left - 10-hour dead fuel moisture from Wildland Fire Assessment System Right - Significant Wildland Fire Potential Monthly Outlook for June 2025 Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Widespread Severe to Extreme Drought currently exists over central and western Arizona, as well as southeast California The remainder of the spring typically experiences very little rainfall with no improvement in drought expected Until monsoon fully becomes established over the Southwest, drought should persist