Drought Information Statement for South-Central & Southwest Arizona, and Southeast California Valid July 20, 2025 Issued By: National Weather Service Phoenix Contact Information: nws.phoenix@noaa.gov This product may be updated around August 24, 2025 Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements Please visit https://www.weather.gov/psr/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/?dews_region=130&state=All for regional outlook Early monsoon rainfall forces additional localized improvements in drought conditions Severe to Extreme Drought continues to affect much of central and western Arizona, as well as southeast California U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor Image Caption: U.S. Drought Monitor valid 5 am MST July 15, 2025 SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA Drought intensity and Extent D4 (Exceptional Drought): far SW Yuma County D3 (Extreme Drought): southern La Paz, much of Yuma, Maricopa, Gila, and northern Pinal counties D2 (Severe Drought): much of La Paz County and a small part of northern Maricopa County, as well as southern Gila County U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor Image Caption: U.S. Drought Monitor valid 5 am PDT July 15, 2025 MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA Drought intensity and Extent D3 (Extreme Drought): Much of Imperial County D2 (Severe Drought): much of eastern Riverside and far north-central Imperial counties D1 (Moderate Drought): small part of north-central Riverside County Precipitation Rainfall across most of southern Arizona, as well as SE California has been less than 50% of normal so far this Water Year (since Oct 2024) Late spring/early monsoon rainfall allowed some locations to exit from record dryness Localized drought improvements have been common over the past couple months Image Captions: Left - Water Year Precipitation Percentile Ranking Right - Water Year Percent of Normal Precipitation Data Courtesy WestWide Drought Tracker. Data over the past 9 months ending June 2025 Temperature Average temperatures this Water Year (since Oct 2024) are mostly 1-2oF above normal This anomalous warmth in the historical top 10th percentile has heightened evapotranspiration losses and more rapidly depleted soil moisture affecting vegetation and streamflow Image Captions: Left - Water Year Temperature Percentile Ranking Right - Water Year Departure from Normal Temperature Data Courtesy WestWide Drought Tracker Data over the past 9 months ending June 2025 Hydrologic Impacts Tier 1 shortage conditions remain in effect on the Colorado River impacting water deliveries in Arizona for 2025 Unregulated inflow into Lake Powell is now forecast under 60% of average through this summer which will keep Lake Powell and Mead water levels depressed such that Tier 1 restrictions are almost certain through 2026. Agricultural Impacts There are no known impacts at this time Fire Hazard Impacts Wildfire activity has slowed somewhat entering the heart of the monsoon, however several large incidents continue. Resources remain stressed across the Southwest and expansive drought may keep an enhanced threat of wildfires this year. Other Impacts Ranchers in parts of Arizona have experienced a significant lack of forage growth due to lack of rainfall the past year. Supplemental feed and water hauling have been necessary in many locations. Mitigation Actions A Drought Emergency Declaration remains in effect for the state of Arizona as signed by the governor in accordance with the Arizona Drought Preparedness Plan. The continuation of this Drought Emergency has been recommended by the Drought Interagency Coordinating Group Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Some small unregulated rivers and streams across Arizona have responded to early monsoon season rainfall Small to medium sized reservoirs were below levels measured last year and near or below long term averages Larger reservoirs on the Colorado river continue to hover well below average forcing shortage conditions and reduced water deliveries Image Caption: Left: USGS 14 day average streamflow compared to historical streamflow valid July 18, 2025. Data courtesy of USGS Right: Arizona reservoir status. Data courtesy of CLIMAS Fire Hazard Impacts Dead fine fuels largely are hovering below 10% over much of the area, though have improved recently with monsoon rainfall The threat of significant large wildland fires should remain close to normal in August with moisture intrusions and occasional thunderstorm activity Image Caption: Left - 10-hour dead fuel moisture from Wildland Fire Assessment System Right - Significant Wildland Fire Potential Monthly Outlook for August 2025 Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Temperatures over the next 3 months (Aug-Sep-Oct) have better chances of averaging at above normal levels Odds of total precipitation during the Aug-Sep-Oct time frame have equal chances of above, below, or near normal amounts Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Precipitation Outlook. Valid 09/ YYYY Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Widespread Severe to Extreme Drought currently exists over central and western Arizona, as well as southeast California Thunderstorms following moisture return due to monsoon flow typically becomes more widespread across the region in August There are signals that monsoon rainfall will be sufficient for drought improvement in some areas