Drought Information Statement for South-Central & Southwest Arizona, and Southeast California Valid August 27, 2025 Issued By: National Weather Service Phoenix Contact Information: nws.phoenix@noaa.gov This product may be updated around September 20, 2025 Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements Please visit https://www.weather.gov/psr/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/?dews_region=130&state=All for regional outlook Limited rainfall during the middle of the monsoon results in locally degraded drought conditions Severe to Extreme Drought continues to affect much of central and western Arizona, as well as southeast California U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor Image Caption: U.S. Drought Monitor valid 5 am MST August 26, 2025 SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA Drought intensity and Extent D4 (Exceptional Drought): far SW Yuma County D3 (Extreme Drought): SW La Paz, much of Yuma, Maricopa, Gila, and northern Pinal counties D2 (Severe Drought): much of La Paz County and a small part of northern Maricopa County, as well as southern Gila County U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor Image Caption: U.S. Drought Monitor valid 5 am PDT August 26, 2025 MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA Drought intensity and Extent D3 (Extreme Drought): Much of Imperial County D2 (Severe Drought): much of eastern Riverside and far north-central Imperial counties D1 (Moderate Drought): small part of north-central Riverside County Precipitation Rainfall across most of southern Arizona, as well as SE California has been less than 50% of normal so far this Water Year (since Oct 2024) Despite early monsoon rainfall, recent lack of rainfall has allowed some areas to fall back into record driest category Modest drought degradation have occurred over the past month due to lack of rains Image Captions: Left - Water Year Precipitation Percentile Ranking Right - Water Year Percent of Normal Precipitation Data Courtesy WestWide Drought Tracker. Data over the past 10 months ending July 2025 Precipitation Much of 2025 has been drier than normal with much of south-central Arizona and SE California less than 70% of normal Many locations in the region sit in the lowest 33rd percentile for the year, though a few spotty areas are hovering in the near normal tercile Image Captions: Left - YTD 2025 Precipitation Percentile Ranking Right - YTD 2025 Percent of Normal Precipitation Data Courtesy WestWide Drought Tracker YTD 2025 Precipitation ending July 2025 Temperature Average temperatures this Water Year (since Oct 2024) are mostly 1-2oF above normal though some areas have retreated closer to normal The anomalous warmth in the historical top 10th percentile has more rapidly depleted soil moisture affecting vegetation and streamflow Image Captions: Left - Water Year Temperature Percentile Ranking Right - Water Year Departure from Normal Temperature Data Courtesy WestWide Drought Tracker Data over the past 10 months ending July 2025 Abnormal warmth or coolness can play a role in the rate of evaporation and thus accelerate or slow drought development and spread. If you feel this is currently playing a role, you can include this slide, otherwise leave it skipped. Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Tier 1 shortage conditions remain in effect on the Colorado River impacting water deliveries in Arizona for 2025 Below average unregulated inflow into Lake Powell this past spring/summer will keep Lake Powell and Mead water levels depressed such that Tier 1 restrictions have been announced through 2026. Agricultural Impacts There are no known impacts at this time Fire Hazard Impacts Several large wildfire incidents continue across Arizona which is highly unusual for this time of year. Resources remain stressed across the Southwest and prolonged drought may keep an enhanced threat of wildfires the remainder of the year. Other Impacts Ranchers in parts of Arizona have experienced a significant lack of forage growth due to lack of rainfall the past year. Supplemental feed and water hauling have been necessary in many locations. Mitigation Actions A Drought Emergency Declaration remains in effect for the state of Arizona as signed by the governor in accordance with the Arizona Drought Preparedness Plan. The continuation of this Drought Emergency has been recommended by the Drought Interagency Coordinating Group Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Many small unregulated rivers and streams have dropped into a blow or much below category with limited rainfall in early August Small to medium sized reservoirs were below levels measured last year and near or below long term averages Larger reservoirs on the Colorado river continue to hover well below average forcing shortage conditions and reduced water deliveries Image Caption: Left: USGS 14 day average streamflow compared to historical streamflow valid August 27, 2025. Data courtesy of USGS Right: Arizona reservoir status. Data courtesy of CLIMAS NASS crop progress reports: https://agindrought.unl.edu/Other.aspx Percentage of various crops affected by drought: https://agindrought.unl.edu/Home.aspx table: https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?2 Regional resource for the midwest: https://mrcc.purdue.edu/U2U/ Fire Hazard Impacts With recent rainfall, dead fine fuels have improved above 10% temporarily limiting new wildfire starts The threat of significant large wildland fires should remain close to normal in September with occasional thunderstorm activity ending out monsoon 2025 Image Caption: Left - 10-hour dead fuel moisture from Wildland Fire Assessment System Right - Significant Wildland Fire Potential Monthly Outlook for September 2025 Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Temperatures over the next 3 months (Sep-Oct-Nov) have a much better chances of averaging at above normal levels Odds of total precipitation during the Sep-Oct-Nov time frame have a slightly better chance of ending in the below normal category Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Precipitation Outlook. Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Widespread Severe to Extreme Drought currently exists over central and western Arizona, as well as southeast California Thunderstorms tend to become more isolated and infrequent towards the end of the monsoon, but historically some very large rainfall events have occurred in September The most likely outcome is for drought to persist across the Southwest through Fall 2025 Image Caption: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Released MM DD, YYYY valid for MM YYYY Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook