Drought Information Statement for South-Central & Southwest Arizona, and Southeast California Valid October 18, 2025 Issued By: National Weather Service Phoenix Contact Information: nws.phoenix@noaa.gov This product may be updated around November 24, 2025 Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements Please visit https://www.weather.gov/psr/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/?dews_region=130&state=All for regional outlook Heavy rainfall has resulted in widespread short term drought improvement Long term Moderate to Severe Drought continues to affect much of central and western Arizona, as well as southeast California U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor Image Caption: U.S. Drought Monitor valid 5 am MST October 14, 2025 WIDESPREAD DROUGHT IMPROVEMENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA Drought intensity and Extent D3 (Extreme Drought): Small part of southeast Yuma and western Maricopa counties D2 (Severe Drought): Eastern La Paz, eastern Yuma, parts of Maricopa, Pinal, and southern Gila counties D1 (Moderate Drought): western La Paz, western Yuma, eastern Maricopa, NE Pinal, and western Gila counties D0 (Abnormally Dry): far eastern Maricopa, northeast Pinal, and southwest Gila counties U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor Image Caption: U.S. Drought Monitor valid 5 am PDT October 14, 2025 LONG TERM DROUGHT PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA Drought intensity and Extent D2 (Severe Drought): far western Imperial and central Riverside counties D1 (Moderate Drought): much of Imperial and eastern Riverside counties Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 4-week change map Four Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Improved: Significant Drought improvement across all of southwest and south-central Arizona. This includes very rare 3-class and 4-class improvements over the past month Image Caption: U.S. Drought Monitor 4-week change map valid 8am MST October 14, 2025. Precipitation Rainfall across much of southern Arizona last Water Year (Oct 2024-Sept 2025) ended in the bottom third of historical outcomes with many areas recording the record driest WY Rainfall totals across SE California and lower Colorado River valley mostly ended the Water Year near normal Modest drought improvements have been made towards the end of the monsoon where locally heavy rainfall was recorded Image Captions: Left - 2024-25 Water Year Precipitation Percentile Ranking Right - 2024-25 Water Year Percent of Normal Precipitation Data Courtesy WestWide Drought Tracker. Data over the past year ending September 2025 Precipitation Abnormal dryness during the beginning of 2025 has been replaced by recent wet weather While some locations remain under 50% of normal annual rainfall, many areas have recovered to at least 100% of normal to date allowing drought conditions to relax Image Captions: Left - YTD 2025 Precipitation Percentile Ranking Right - YTD 2025 Percent of Normal Precipitation Data Courtesy WestWide Drought Tracker YTD 2025 Precipitation ending September 2025 Temperature Average temperatures last Water Year (Oct 2024-Sept 2025) were primarily 1-2oF above normal though some areas have recently retreated closer to normal The anomalous warmth in the historical top 10th percentile has more rapidly depleted soil moisture negatively affecting vegetation and streamflow Image Captions: Left - 2024-25 Water Year Temperature Percentile Ranking Right - 2024-25 Water Year Departure from Normal Temperature Data Courtesy WestWide Drought Tracker Data over the past year ending September 2025 Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Tier 1 shortage conditions remain in effect on the Colorado River impacting water deliveries in Arizona Below average unregulated inflow will keep Lake Powell and Mead water levels depressed such that Tier 1 restrictions have been announced through 2026 Agricultural Impacts There are no known impacts at this time Fire Hazard Impacts Recent rainfall has significantly aided drought improvement with a low threat of wildfire starts heading into the cold season. Other Impacts Ranchers in parts of Arizona have experienced a significant lack of forage growth due to lack of rainfall earlier in the year. Supplemental feed and water hauling have been necessary in many locations. Mitigation Actions A Drought Emergency Declaration remains in effect for the state of Arizona as signed by the governor in accordance with the Arizona Drought Preparedness Plan. The continuation of this Drought Emergency has been recommended by the Drought Interagency Coordinating Group Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Most smaller, unregulated rivers and streams have responded to recent heavy rainfall with above normal streamflow Small to medium sized reservoirs were below levels measured last year and near or below long term averages Larger reservoirs on the Colorado river continue to hover well below average forcing shortage conditions and reduced water deliveries Image Caption: Left: USGS 14 day average streamflow compared to historical streamflow valid October 17, 2025. Data courtesy of USGS Right: Arizona reservoir status. Data courtesy of CLIMAS Fire Hazard Impacts With recent rainfall, dead fine fuels have mostly improved above 10% limiting new wildfire starts The threat of significant large wildland fires should remain close to normal in November entering the cold season Image Caption: Left - 10-hour dead fuel moisture from Wildland Fire Assessment System Right - Significant Wildland Fire Potential Monthly Outlook for November 2025 Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Temperatures over the next 3 months (Nov-Dec-Jan) have better chances of averaging at above normal levels Odds of total precipitation during the Nov-Dec-Jan time frame have a slightly better chance of ending in the below normal category Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Precipitation Outlook. Valid 09/ YYYY Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Widespread Moderate to Severe Drought holds across central and western Arizona, as well as southeast California Historically some very large rainfall events have occurred in October, however prolonged periods of dry weather are also common during the autumn The most likely outcome is for persisting drought during Fall-Winter 2025-26