Drought Information Statement for Central North Carolina 
Valid March 12, 2026
Issued By: NWS Raleigh
Contact Information: 
This Drought Information Statement will be updated by March 26, 2026.
Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements.
Please visit https://www.weather.gov/RAH/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements.
Questions or comments can be sent to barrett.smith@noaa.gov 


Extreme Drought (D3) persists in the southern Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain areas of North Carolina.

Severe Drought (D2) continues across the rest of central North Carolina, except for an area from the Sandhills into the Piedmont where conditions have improved to Moderate Drought (D1).


1

Current Drought Conditions
Graphic Courtesy of the North Carolina State Climate Office

Current Drought Conditions
Latest U.S. Drought Monitor Map and One-Week Change
Main Takeaways
Extreme Drought (D3) continues across portions of the northern Coastal Plain and southern Piedmont.
Severe Drought (D2) continues elsewhere, although there has been some improvement from Scotland to Randolph Counties.
Image Caption: 
Left: U.S. Drought Monitor valid 8am March 10th .
Right: U.S. Drought Monitor 1-week change map valid 8am March 10th.. 
DM Archive Page

Observed Precipitation


Main Takeaways
Most of Central NC has seen below normal rainfall since mid February, and some areas of eastern NC have seen significantly below normal rainfall.
Additional statistics → Local Rainfall Summary 
Latest 30-Day Precipitation and Percent of Normal Precipitation
Image Captions: 
Left - 30 Day Observed Precipitation for NC; Right - Percent of Normal Precipitation for NC
Data Courtesy NWS National Water Prediction Service. 
Past 90 Days Stats
Observed Precipitation
Departure From Normal
Percent of Normal
Raleigh-Durham
5.43
-4.48
55%
Greensboro
7.31
-2.23
77%
Fayetteville
4.64
-4.34
52%
NWS RAH LCO



Precipitation Forecast


Next 7 days: 

 A frontal system today may provide up to one inch of rain in some areas of the Piedmont.  

Additional showers and storms are expected Sunday through Monday from a second system.

Neither system is forecast to bring sufficient rainfall for significant drought improvement, but near normal rainfall should prevent further worsening of conditions.

Image Caption: 
Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast valid March 12th to March 19th,  
Latest 7-Day Precipitation Forecast

8-14 Day Outlook

Temperature and Precipitation Outlook


Main Takeaways

The Days 8-14 Outlooks favors above normal temperatures.

There are slightly increased chances (33-40%) of below normal precipitation in Days 8-14.


Possible Impact

Drought conditions are likely persist.
Image Captions: 
Left - Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook. 
Right - Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook.
Valid March 19 - March 25,, 2025

Weeks 3-4 Outlook


Temperature and Precipitation Outlook


Main Takeaways
There are generally equal chances of above or below normal temperatures in late March and early April.

Below normal precipitation is slightly favored.


Possible Impact
Longer range models suggest a warm pattern across the western US, with a general storm track through the Midwest.  This pattern may result in additional rainfall deficits and continued or worsening of drought conditions in some areas.
Image Captions: 
Left - Climate Prediction Center Weeks 3-4 Temperature Outlook. 
Right - Climate Prediction Center Weeks 3-4 Precipitation Outlook.
Valid March 21 - April 3, 2026  


ENSO Forecast
Courtesy of the Climate Prediction Center (www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov)


ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory / El Niño Watch
Synopsis: A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is expected in the next month, with ENSO-neutral favored through May-July 2026 (55% chance). In June-August 2026, El Niño is likely to emerge (62% chance) and persist through at least the end of 2026.

Seasonal (3-Month) Outlooks


Seasonal Temperature/Precipitation and Drought Outlooks


Main Takeaways
There is a slight lean toward above normal temperatures across the southeast U.S. heading into spring.

There are equal chances of above or below normal precipitation.

Drought is expected to persist across central NC into spring.



Image Captions: 
Left - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Temperature Outlook. 
Right - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Precipitation Outlook.
Valid March to May, 2026.