Drought Information Statement for Central North Carolina Valid May 12, 2026 Issued By: NWS Raleigh Contact Information: This Drought Information Statement will be updated by June 9, 2026. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/RAH/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Questions or comments can be sent to barrett.smith@noaa.gov Extreme Drought (D3) continues across most of the Piedmont of North Carolina. Severe Drought (D2) continues in the Sandhills and Coastal Plain DM Archive Page 1 Key Points This is a long term drought, which dates back to August of 2025 for many areas. For instance, Raleigh is currently experiencing a precipitation deficit of over 17 inches since August. Impacts: Many municipalities have moved into active conservation stages to protect reservoir levels. Groundwater levels in the Piedmont are at or near record lows Winter wheat and some summer crops are struggling to take root due to critically low topsoil moisture. Shallow-rooted crops have seen reduced yields. Many streams and rivers across central NC (including the Neuse and Haw River basins) are at all-time record lows for this time of year. In the short term, hot and mostly dry conditions are expected through the middle of next week. Unsettled weather may return late next week, but probability of any areas getting substantial, widespread rainfall is low. Current Drought Conditions Graphic Courtesy of the North Carolina State Climate Office Current Drought Conditions Latest U.S. Drought Monitor Map and One-Week Change Main Takeaways Severe (D2) and Extreme (D3) Drought continue across nearly all of Central North Carolina. Image Caption: Left: U.S. Drought Monitor valid 8am EST May 12, 2026. Right: U.S. Drought Monitor 4-week change map valid 8am EST May 12, 2026. DM Archive Page Observed Precipitation Main Takeaways Modest rain fell across southern portions of Central North Carolina on May 7th when some areas received up the 2 inches of rain and the southern Piedmont. However, most other areas saw below normal rainfall. Latest 14-Day Rainfall and Percent of Normal Rainfall Image Captions: Left - Precipitation Amount for NC Right - Percent of Normal Precipitation for NC Data Courtesy NWS National Water Prediction Service Data over the past 14 days ending May 12, 2026 https://www.weather.gov/images/rah/radarImages/NWPS_Precipitation_Last_14_Days_RG.png https://www.weather.gov/images/rah/radarImages/NWPS_Precipitation_pct_normal_Last_14_Days_RG.png Observed Precipitation Main Takeaways Over the past 30 days rainfall has been significantly below normal and is a major contributor to the current drought conditions. Additional statistics → Local Rainfall Summary Latest 30-Day Precipitation and Percent of Normal Precipitation Image Captions: Left - 30 Day Observed Precipitation for NC; Right - Percent of Normal Precipitation for NC Data Courtesy NWS National Water Prediction Service. Data over the past 30 days ending May 12, 2026 Past 90 Days Stats Observed Precipitation Departure From Normal Percent of Normal Raleigh-Durham 5.84 -4.83 55% Greensboro 5.57 -5.08 52% Fayetteville 5.37 -3.62 60% NWS RAH LCO https://www.weather.gov/images/rah/radarImages/NWPS_Precipitation_Last_30_Days_RG.png https://www.weather.gov/images/rah/radarImages/NWPS_Precipitation_pct_normal_Last_30_Days_RG.png Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Many streams and rivers across central NC (including the Neuse and Haw River basins) are flowing at all-time record lows for this time of year. Image Caption: USGS 28 Day Average Streamflow Anomaly valid May 12, 2026 Precipitation Forecast Next 7 days: A hot and humid summer-like pattern will develop through the middle of next week. Some afternoon showers and storms are possible, but the chance of any widespread rainfall is very low. Well below normal rainfall is expected. Image Caption: Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast valid May 13 - 20, 2026 Latest 7-Day Precipitation Forecast https://www.weather.gov/images/rah/radarImages/NWPS_Precipitation_Last_7_Days_NC.png 8-14 Day Outlook Temperature and Precipitation Outlook Main Takeaways Generally above normal temperatures are favored (50-60% chance) in Days 8-14 across central North Carolina. There are slightly increased chances (33-40%) of above normal precipitation in Days 8-14. Possible Impact Potential for slight improvement in drought conditions from wetter conditions, but heat may mitigate those improvements somewhat. Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook. Valid May 20 - 26, 2026 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif Weeks 3-4 Outlook Temperature and Precipitation Outlook Main Takeaways There are increased chances (40-50%) of above normal temperatures in Weeks 3-4 across central North Carolina. There are equal chances of above or below normal precipitation in Weeks 3-4. Possible Impact There is no clear signal for wet or dry conditions heading into late May and early June. But heat may continue to make it more difficult to see any significant drought improvements. Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Weeks 3-4 Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Weeks 3-4 Precipitation Outlook. Valid May 23 - June 6, 2026 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34temp.gif https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34prcp.gif Seasonal Outlooks Temperature and Precipitation Outlook Main Takeaways There is a 33-40% chance of above normal temperatures in June-July-August across central North Carolina. There are slightly increased chances (33-40%) of above normal precipitation in June-July-August. Possible Impact Some improvement in drought conditions will be possible based on this outlook, but drought is likely to persist. Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Precipitation Outlook. Valid May-July, 2026 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_temp.gif https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_prcp.gif