Drought Information Statement for Central North Carolina Valid July 7, 2026 Issued By: NWS Raleigh Contact Information: This Drought Information Statement will be updated by August 4, 2026. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/RAH/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Questions or comments can be sent to barrett.smith@noaa.gov Exceptional Drought (D4) continue across much of the north-central Piedmont, with some improvements in the Triangle area. Extreme Drought (D3) has expanded in portions of the Coastal Plain. All of Central North Carolina is in at least Severe Drought (D2) DM Archive Page 1 Key Points This is a long-term drought, which dates back to August of 2025 for many areas. Despite a small recent recovery, Raleigh is still experiencing a precipitation deficit of near 20 inches since August. The Chapel Hill Cooperative Observer Site has recorded just 12.14 inches of precipitation since January 1, 2026, over 11 inches below-normal and 3 inches below the record driest start to a year (2004). Summer thunderstorms can result in significant localized rainfall and increasingly variable drought conditions across counties. Impacts: Numerous municipalities have moved to voluntary and/or mandatory water conservation. Streamflows continue to run extremely below normal in much of the Piedmont. Very recent rainfall has improved streamflows in portions of the upper Neuse and Cape Fear Basins There are many reports of poor hay condition and stress on crops such as corn and soybeans. Falls Lake water quality storage is below 25%. Jordan Lake water quality storage is below 60%. Recent rainfall around the Triangle will be beneficial to the drought conditions. However, many continue to see below normal rainfall and worsening drought conditions. A relatively unsettled weather pattern may bring some additional relief, likely in isolated areas. Current Drought Conditions Graphic Courtesy of the North Carolina State Climate Office Link to updated drought graphic - https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/NCDroughtUpdate.png Current Drought Conditions Latest U.S. Drought Monitor Map and One-Week Change Main Takeaways All of Central North Carolina is in at least Severe Drought (D2). Many areas are in Extreme Drought (D3) and the worst hit Exceptional Drought (D4) areas are across the north-central Piedmont. Image Caption: Left: U.S. Drought Monitor valid 8am EST July 7, 2026. Right: U.S. Drought Monitor 4-week change map valid 8am EST July 7, 2026. DM Archive Page Observed Precipitation Main Takeaways Rainfall has been below normal across central NC. However, an unsettled pattern over the past few days has brought some beneficial rainfall to primarily the Neuse and Tar River Basins. Latest 14-Day Rainfall and Percent of Normal Rainfall Image Captions: Left - Precipitation Amount for NC Right - Percent of Normal Precipitation for NC Data Courtesy NWS National Water Prediction Service Data over the past 14 days ending July 7, 2026 https://www.weather.gov/images/rah/radarImages/NWPS_Precipitation_Last_14_Days_RG.png https://www.weather.gov/images/rah/radarImages/NWPS_Precipitation_pct_normal_Last_14_Days_RG.png Observed Precipitation Main Takeaways Over the past 30 days rainfall has been significantly below normal, with improvement over the past week around the Triangle area. For additional statistics, refer to the Local Rainfall Summary Latest 30-Day Precipitation and Percent of Normal Precipitation Image Captions: Left: 30 Day Observed Precipitation for NC; Right: Percent of Normal Precipitation for NC Data Courtesy NWS National Water Prediction Service. Data over the past 30 days ending July 7, 2026 Past 90 Days Stats Observed Precipitation Departure From Normal Percent of Normal Raleigh-Durham 10.13 -0.70 94% Greensboro 5.67 -5.52 51% Fayetteville 6.36 -5.06 56% NWS RAH LCO https://www.weather.gov/images/rah/radarImages/NWPS_Precipitation_Last_30_Days_RG.png https://www.weather.gov/images/rah/radarImages/NWPS_Precipitation_pct_normal_Last_30_Days_RG.png Latest 30-Day Average Max Temperature and Departure from Normal Main Takeaways Temperatures have been near to above normal over the past 30 days, with particularly hot conditions in the past week. Image Captions: Left: 7-Day Departure from Normal Temperature for NC Right: 30-Day Departure from Normal Temperature for NC Data Courtesy NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information Data over the past 30 days ending July 4, 2026 Observed Temperature https://storage.googleapis.com/noaa-nidis-drought-gov-data/current-conditions/nws-dgt-images/nws-30-day-temperature-anomaly-appalachia.png https://storage.googleapis.com/noaa-nidis-drought-gov-data/current-conditions/nws-dgt-images/nws-7-day-temperature-anomaly-appalachia.png Precipitation Forecast Next 7 days Continued hot and unsettled into early next week. An approaching cold front will enhance shower and storm coverage over the weekend. Rainfall amounts of 0.5-1.0” are most likely with showers and storms, while locally higher amounts are possible. Beneficial above-normal rainfall will likely be very localized. Image Caption: Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast valid July 9 - 16, 2026 Latest 7-Day Precipitation Forecast https://www.weather.gov/images/rah/radarImages/NWPS_Precipitation_Last_7_Days_NC.png 8-14 Day Outlook Temperature and Precipitation Outlook Main Takeaways The overall pattern favors warm and unsettled weather for the end of July. Above-normal temperatures are slightly favored (33-40% chance) in Days 8-14 across central North Carolina. Above-normal rainfall (40-50%) is favored. Possible Impact While summertime storms can produce widely varying rainfall amounts, this pattern should favor drought improvements in some areas. Image Captions: Left: Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook. Right: Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook. Valid June 16-22, 2026 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif Weeks 3-4 Outlook Temperature and Precipitation Outlook Main Takeaways There are increased chances (33-50%) of above-normal temperatures in Weeks 3-4 across central North Carolina. There is a slight lean (33-40%) to above-normal precipitation in Weeks 3-4; however, these probabilities still suggest 60-70% chances of near or below-normal precipitation. Possible Impact While the overall pattern does not favor high probabilities of above-normal rainfall, a continued favorable pattern should keep drought from worsening. Image Captions: Left: Climate Prediction Center Weeks 3-4 Temperature Outlook. Right: Climate Prediction Center Weeks 3-4 Precipitation Outlook. Valid July 18 - 31, 2026 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34temp.gif https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34prcp.gif Seasonal Outlooks Temperature and Precipitation Outlook Main Takeaways There is a greater than 40% probability that ongoing El Niño will strengthen into a strong event by July-August-September. Influence of the El Niño is likely to increase through the Fall. There is a 33-50% chance of above-normal temperatures in July-August-September across central North Carolina. There are equal chances of above or below-normal precipitation in July-August-September. Possible Impact There is no clear signal for drought improvement through the summer months. Image Captions: Left: Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Temperature Outlook. Right: Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Precipitation Outlook. Valid July-September, 2026 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_temp.gif https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_prcp.gif ENSO Forecast Courtesy of the Climate Prediction Center (www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory Main Takeaway: El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27.