Drought Information Statement for Central North Carolina Valid October 10, 2025 Issued By: NWS Raleigh Contact Information: This Drought Information Statement will be updated by October 24, 2025. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/RAH/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Questions or comments can be sent to barrett.smith@noaa.gov Severe Drought (D2) in the north-central Coastal Plain. Moderate Drought (D1) in the eastern and southern Piedmont, as well as the remainder of the Coastal Plain. While some rain is forecast over eastern NC this weekend, amounts may not be significant enough over the drought stricken areas to improve conditions substantially. 1 Current Drought Conditions Graphic Courtesy of the North Carolina State Climate Office Current Drought Conditions Latest U.S. Drought Monitor Map and One-Week Change Main Takeaways Severe Drought (D2) conditions are observed across all of Edgecombe County and parts of Nash, Halifax, and Wilson Counties. Moderate Drought (D1) conditions are observed across the eastern and southern Piedmont, as well as the entire Coastal Plain. Image Caption: Left: U.S. Drought Monitor valid 8am October 7th. Right: U.S. Drought Monitor 1-week change map valid 8am October 7th. Image Caption: U.S. Drought Monitor valid 8am EDT June 1st. Image Caption: U.S. Drought Monitor 4-week change map valid 8am EDT June 1st. Observed Precipitation Main Takeaways While most of western and portions of central NC received some rain in late September, areas between Raleigh and Greenville, NC continued to see rainfall deficits grow since late summer. Latest 30-Day Rainfall and Percent of Normal Rainfall Image Captions: Left - Precipitation Amount for NC Right - Percent of Normal Precipitation for NC Data Courtesy NWS National Water Prediction Service Data over the past 30 days ending October 9, 2025 https://storage.googleapis.com/noaa-nidis-drought-gov-data/current-conditions/nws-dgt-images/nws-30-day-precipitation_-percent-of-prism-normal-appalachia.png https://storage.googleapis.com/noaa-nidis-drought-gov-data/current-conditions/nws-dgt-images/nws-nwps-30-day-precipitation-accumulations-(inches)-appalachia.png Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Streamflow is below normal across much of the Coastal Plain, and particularly low in the Tar River Basin. Image Caption: USGS 28 day average streamflow valid 10/08/2025 Agricultural Impacts Across much of the Coastal Plain, soil moisture is less than 20% of normal and the Crop Moisture Index is between -1 and -3. There have been some reported agricultural impacts, including lower soybean production. Left: NASA SPoRT LIS Soil Moisture 100cm Soil Moisture Percentile valid October 10, 2025 Right: Crop Moisture Index by Division. Weekly value for period ending October 4, 2025 Precipitation Forecast Next 7 days: A coastal low will track along the NC coast this weekend and bring some locally moderate to heavy rain to coastal NC. However, there will be a sharp decrease in rainfall amounts across interior NC. It is possible that some areas currently in drought will receive less than 0.25”. Dry weather will return next week. Image Caption: Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast valid Friday October 10 to Friday October 17, 2025 Latest 7-Day Precipitation Forecast 8-14 Day Outlook Temperature and Precipitation Outlook Main Takeaways The Days 8-14 Outlooks favors near normal temperatures. There are slightly increased chances (33-50%) of below normal precipitation in Days 8-14. Possible Impact Without more significant rainfall in the next 7 days, drought conditions are likely persist or worsen. Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook. Valid October 17-23,, 2025 Weeks 3-4 Outlook Temperature and Precipitation Outlook Main Takeaways There is a slight lean (40-50%) to above normal temperatures across NC. The 3-4 Week Outlook favors equal chances of above or below normal precipitation across the south for late October. Possible Impact If near to above normal rainfall does not occur in the next 2 weeks, the uncertainty in rainfall combined with a higher probability of above normal temperatures could worsen drought conditions. Demands for water are decreasing heading into late Fall and Winter, which may help slow the expansion of drought. Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Weeks 3-4 Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Weeks 3-4 Precipitation Outlook. Valid October 18- October 31, 2025 Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Drought is expected to persist across portions of eastern NC through the month of October. Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook