Drought Information Statement for Central North Carolina Valid October 23, 2025 Issued By: NWS Raleigh Contact Information: This Drought Information Statement will be updated by November 7, 2025. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/RAH/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Questions or comments can be sent to barrett.smith@noaa.gov Severe Drought (D2) expanded in the north-central Coastal Plain and eastern Piedmont, and also developed into the southern Piedmont. Moderate Drought (D1) expanded across nearly all of the Piedmont. 1 Current Drought Conditions Graphic Courtesy of the North Carolina State Climate Office Current Drought Conditions Latest U.S. Drought Monitor Map and One-Week Change Main Takeaways Severe Drought (D2) expanded in the north-central Coastal Plain and eastern Piedmont, and also developed into the southern Piedmont. Moderate Drought (D1) expanded across nearly all of the Piedmont. Image Caption: Left: U.S. Drought Monitor valid 8am October 21st . Right: U.S. Drought Monitor 1-week change map valid 8am October 21st. Image Caption: U.S. Drought Monitor valid 8am EDT June 1st. Image Caption: U.S. Drought Monitor 4-week change map valid 8am EDT June 1st. Observed Precipitation Main Takeaways Rainfall deficits continue to grow in the Coastal Plain, where rainfall in the past 30 days has been 25-50 percent of normal. A CoCoRaHs observer in Rocky Mount has reported only 1.06 inches of rain since the beginning of September. Latest 30-Day Rainfall and Percent of Normal Rainfall Image Captions: Left - Precipitation Amount for NC; Right - Percent of Normal Precipitation for NC Data Courtesy NWS National Water Prediction Service. Data over the past 30 days ending October 23, 2025 Past 30 Days Stats Observed Precipitation Departure From Normal Percent of Normal Raleigh-Durham 1.82 -1.94 48% Piedmont Triad 1.61 -1.74 48% Fayetteville 2.03 -1.72 54% https://storage.googleapis.com/noaa-nidis-drought-gov-data/current-conditions/nws-dgt-images/nws-30-day-precipitation_-percent-of-prism-normal-appalachia.png https://storage.googleapis.com/noaa-nidis-drought-gov-data/current-conditions/nws-dgt-images/nws-nwps-30-day-precipitation-accumulations-(inches)-appalachia.png Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Streamflow is below normal across much of the Coastal Plain, and particularly low in the Tar River Basin. The Neuse River at Clayton has been hovering near its required minimum flow levels for multiple weeks. Image Caption: USGS 28 day average streamflow valid 10/22/2025 Agricultural Impacts Across much of the Coastal Plain, soil moisture is in the lowest 5-10th for this time of year and the short term Crop Moisture Index is between -1 and -3. There have been some reported agricultural impacts, including lower soybean production and cool-season forage crop issues. Left: NASA SPoRT LIS Soil Moisture 100cm Soil Moisture Percentile valid October 23, 2025 Right: Crop Moisture Index by Division. Weekly value for period ending October 18, 2025 Precipitation Forecast Next 7 days: A coastal low will track along the NC coast early next week and bring the chance of a couple of rounds of rainfall to central NC. As much as 1-2 inches of rain is possible across much of central NC. There is still some uncertainty in the amounts, but current forecasts imply near to above normal rainfall through late next week. Image Caption: Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast valid Friday October 23 to Friday October 30, 2025 Latest 7-Day Precipitation Forecast 8-14 Day Outlook Temperature and Precipitation Outlook Main Takeaways The Days 8-14 Outlooks favors below normal temperatures. There are slightly increased chances (33-40%) of above normal precipitation in Days 8-14. Possible Impact Without more significant rainfall in the next 7 days, drought conditions are likely persist or worsen. Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook. Valid October 31-November 6,, 2025 Weeks 3-4 Outlook Temperature and Precipitation Outlook Main Takeaways There is a slight lean (33-40%) to below normal temperatures across NC. The 3-4 Week Outlook favors equal chances of above or below normal precipitation across central NC for early November. Possible Impact Below normal temperatures and at least an equal chance of near to above normal rainfall is favorable for drought persistence or improvement instead of worsening. However, the pattern does favor below normal rainfall to areas just west of central NC. Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Weeks 3-4 Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Weeks 3-4 Precipitation Outlook. Valid November 1 - 14, 2025 ENSO Teleconnections La Niña Winters Favor drier conditions along the southern tier of the CONUS with warmer conditions favored across the southeast. Keep in mind these conditions are an average over the seasonal time period, so variations between warm/cold and wet/dry will still occur. We are currently in a La Niña pase and La Niña is forecast to continue through February 2026, with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely by March 2026 (55% chance). Seasonal (3-Month) Climate Outlook Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation Outlook Main Takeaways There are increased probabilities of above normal temperatures across the southern and eastern U. S. Below normal rainfall is favored for November through February Possible Impact While week to week variations in weather will occur, a La Niña winter could favor the persistent or worsening of drought if rainfall is below normal across NC, Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Precipitation Outlook. Valid November, 2025 to February, 2026. Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Drought is expected to persist across portions of eastern NC through the winter and possibly continue to expand across the western Piedmont. Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook