Drought Information Statement for Central North Carolina Valid November 21, 2025 Issued By: NWS Raleigh Contact Information: This Drought Information Statement will be updated by December 5, 2025. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/RAH/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Questions or comments can be sent to barrett.smith@noaa.gov Severe Drought (D2) continues in the north-central Coastal Plain. Conditions have improved in the the southern Coastal Plain and eastern Piedmont, where the extent of Severe Drought (D2) and Moderate Drought (D1) has been reduced. 1 Current Drought Conditions Graphic Courtesy of the North Carolina State Climate Office Current Drought Conditions Latest U.S. Drought Monitor Map and One-Week Change Main Takeaways There were general improvements in drought conditions over the last week. Both areas of Severe Drought (D2) and Moderate Drought (D1) were reduced across the Piedmont and Coastal Plain. Image Caption: Left: U.S. Drought Monitor valid 8am November 18th . Right: U.S. Drought Monitor 1-week change map valid 8am November 18th. Image Caption: U.S. Drought Monitor valid 8am EDT June 1st. Image Caption: U.S. Drought Monitor 4-week change map valid 8am EDT June 1st. Observed Precipitation Main Takeaways Some portions of the Coastal Plain received 1-3 inches of rain in the past two weeks. However, longer term rainfall deficits of 1-3 inches over the past 30-60 days continue across most of central NC. Additional statistics can be found at https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/sx/sxus52.krah.lco.rah.txt Latest 30-Day Rainfall and Percent of Normal Rainfall Image Captions: Left - 30 Day Observed Precipitation for NC; Right - Percent of Normal Precipitation for NC Data Courtesy NWS National Water Prediction Service. Data over the past 30 days ending November 20, 2025 Past 90 Days Stats Observed Precipitation Departure From Normal Percent of Normal Raleigh-Durham 7.53 -5.07 60% Piedmont Triad 6.05 -5.48 52% Fayetteville 8.36 -4.39 66% https://storage.googleapis.com/noaa-nidis-drought-gov-data/current-conditions/nws-dgt-images/nws-30-day-precipitation_-percent-of-prism-normal-appalachia.png https://storage.googleapis.com/noaa-nidis-drought-gov-data/current-conditions/nws-dgt-images/nws-nwps-30-day-precipitation-accumulations-(inches)-appalachia.png Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts There were some general improvements in streamflow in the Piedmont. Streamflow remains well below normal in the Tar River Basin. Streamflows have improved in the Neuse River Basin. Image Caption: USGS 28 day average streamflow valid 11/20/2025 Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture remains in the 5-10th percentile for the time of year in the central Coastal Plain, but in other areas conditions have improved. The short term Crop Moisture Index has improved to the near normal range. Recent rainfall has provided some assistance in Fall season planting. Left: NASA SPoRT LIS Soil Moisture 100cm Soil Moisture Percentile valid November 20, 2025 Right: Crop Moisture Index by Division. Weekly value for period ending November 1, 2025 Precipitation Forecast Next 7 days: A couple of cold fronts will cross the area this weekend, one early Saturday and another on Sunday/Sunday night, but rainfall with each will be relatively light. Rainfall totals will greatest in the northern Coastal Plain but generally less than 0.50”, and some areas may see less than 0.25”. These rainfall amounts are well below normal for the 7-day period. Image Caption: Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast valid Friday November 21 to Friday November 28, 2025 Latest 7-Day Precipitation Forecast 8-14 Day Outlook Temperature and Precipitation Outlook Main Takeaways The Days 8-14 Outlook favors above normal temperatures, with very high probabilities across the southern U.S. Below normal precipitation is favored along the Southeast US coast, including eastern NC, while western NC is expected to be near normal. Possible Impact Warm and dry conditions favor persistence of worsening of the drought conditions. Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook. Valid November 14 -20,, 2025 Weeks 3-4 Outlook Temperature and Precipitation Outlook Main Takeaways There is a slight lean (33-40%) to above normal temperatures across NC. The 3-4 Week Outlook favors below normal precipitation across central NC for late November. Possible Impact This pattern also suggests drought conditions may continue to even worsen in some areas with above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation possible. Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Weeks 3-4 Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Weeks 3-4 Precipitation Outlook. Valid November 15 - 28, 2025 ENSO Teleconnections La Niña Winters Favor drier conditions along the southern tier of the CONUS with warmer conditions favored across the southeast. Keep in mind these conditions are an average over the seasonal time period, so variations between warm/cold and wet/dry will still occur. We are currently in a La Niña pase and La Niña is forecast to continue through February 2026, with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely by March 2026 (55% chance). Seasonal (3-Month) Climate Outlook Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation Outlook Main Takeaways There are increased probabilities of above normal temperatures across the southern and eastern U.S. Below normal rainfall is favored for November through January. Possible Impact While week to week variations in weather will occur, a La Niña winter could favor the persistence or worsening of drought if rainfall is below normal across NC. Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Precipitation Outlook. Valid November, 2025 to January, 2026. Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Drought is expected to persist across portions of eastern NC through the winter and possibly continue to expand across the western Piedmont. Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook