Drought Information Statement for the Missouri Ozarks Valid February 19, 2026 Issued By: WFO Springfield, MO Contact Information: contact.sgf@noaa.gov This product will be updated by March 5, 2026 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/sgf/SGFDroughtMonitor for additional information. Required Slide 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Lower Midwest Drought Persists Across the Ozarks Region Drought Intensity and Extent D3 (Extreme Drought): Portions of Oregon, Howell, Newton and McDonald Counties in Missouri. D2 (Severe Drought): Portions of Dade, Dent, Lawrence, Greene, Taney, Christian, Ozark, Oregon, Shannon, Newton, McDonald, Barry, Webster, Stone, Douglas, and Howell Counties in Missouri. D1 (Moderate Drought): Cherokee Counties, and Portions of Crawford County in Kansas. Barton, Jasper, Newton, Cedar, Barry, Polk, Webster, Douglas, Wright, Pulaski, Maries, Phelps, Dade, Texas, Howell, Hickory, Dallas and Miller Counties in Missouri. D0: (Abnormally Dry): Bourbon County in Kansas. Morgan, Benton, St. Clair, Hickory, Camden, Miller, Dallas, and Laclede Counties in Missouri. Required Slide State Drought Monitor Link to Recent Change Maps Main Takeaways ● Despite widespread rainfall Feb 14-15, drought conditions continue across portions of the Missouri Ozarks, especially south of Interstate 44. ● Drought conditions persist across southeast Kansas. Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to Recent Change Maps Main Takeaways Drought conditions had marginal improvement over some locations across the area over the last 4 weeks. Precipitation Main Takeaways Feb 14-15 rainfall event did increase monthly percentages across some areas however far southwest Missouri and central Missouri still have below normal rainfall over the last 30 days. Required Slide Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts ● A number of locations continue to see below normal streamflows, with reports of small creeks, streams, and ponds nearly dried up with large cracks in soil. Agricultural Impacts ● Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMORs) from the last 7 days were limited as the active growing season ended in the fall, however dry conditions over the D1 to D3 areas continued the following: ○ Supplementing feed and feeding hay early (since August for some) with dead grass and little to no regrowth ○ Lack of water for livestock requiring water hauling, reduced water quality where water remains ○ Decreased stock weights, animal stress and livestock mortality, and farmers selling livestock to reduce hay and water consumption ○ Later crop harvests and/or planting, crop stress and failures, reduced crop yields, increases in invasive insects, erosion (no-till practices not helping), inability to plant fall forage for lack of moisture ○ Farmers report: “Even with a recent 2 inch rain fields are still hard and very little moisture. Ponds are still well below spillways. Winter wheat is struggling to thrive.” Fire Hazard Impacts ● Increased risk of fires as we head into late winter and early spring due to below normal precipitation, above normal temperatures, and dry soils. A few wildfires have occurred across the region over the past 30 days. Other Impacts ● Some reports of change in air quality due to dust along along with mental stress. Mitigation actions The Missouri Drought Alert issued by the Governor has been extended through April 1, 2026. The Missouri Department of Agriculture has an AgriStress Helpline at 833-897-2474. More information is available at muext.us/PSCFarmRanch. Required Slide Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Main Takeaways Streamflow percentiles over the past 7 days were normal to above normal across southeast Kansas Streamflow percentiles over the past 7 days still had several below normal areas across the Missouri Ozarks, especially the Elk River basin. Image Caption: : USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map - Kansas. Image Caption: : USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map - Missouri. These maps are discontinuing in February! Closest thing I could find from USGS to these maps can be found here: https://waterdata.usgs.gov/state/Missouri/ https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?m=pa07d_nwc&r=ks&w=map https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?id=pa07d&sid=w__map%7Cm__pa07d_nwc&r=mo Main Takeaways Streamflow percentiles over the past 7 days were below to well below normal across portions of southeast KS into southwest MO. Image Caption: USGS Water Conditions. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts These maps are discontinuing in February! Closest thing I could find from USGS to these maps can be found here: https://waterdata.usgs.gov/state/Missouri/ https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?m=pa07d_nwc&r=ks&w=map https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?id=pa07d&sid=w__map%7Cm__pa07d_nwc&r=mo Agricultural Impacts Main Takeaways February 1th soil moisture was below average across much of the area. Crop Moisture Index from February 8th - February 14th was around normal. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.rank.daily.gif https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/monitoring_and_data/drought.shtml New graphics in the works (as cited by webpage linked above) Fire Hazard Impacts Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Main Takeaways Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Main Takeaways The eastern Ozarks are expected to receive some light precipitation over the next 7 days. No widespread precipitation is expected over the next 7 days. Precipitation amounts from 0.01” to 0.1” are forecast east of Highway 63. Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Hazards Outlook Main Takeaways Models continue to favor an active pattern heading into the week of November 16th. Risk of heavy precipitation for parts of the Southern Plains, Lower and Middle Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio Valleys centered around Wednesday, Nov 19th and Thursday, Nov 20th. 8 to 14 Day Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Main Takeaways The signal favors above normal temperatures and a slight favoring toward above normal precipitation for the February 27th - March 5th timeframe. Monthly Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Main Takeaways The signal favors above normal temperatures for the month of March There is a signal for slightly above normal chances for precipitation across the eastern portions of Missouri for March. Seasonal Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Main Takeaways The signal slightly favors chances of above normal temperatures however equal chances for precipitation for the period of March to May. Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook | Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Main Takeaways Drought likely to persist through February but show some potential improvement in late Winter/Spring across the eastern Ozarks. Required Slide Additional Drought Resources For Additional Information NWS Springfield Webpage | IDSS Point Forecasts Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook Missouri Drought Monitor | Kansas Drought Monitor Drought Monitor Archive CPC Drought Information National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) Missouri USGS Streamflows | Kansas USGS Streamflows Drought Safety