Drought Information Statement for the Missouri Ozarks Valid October 16, 2025 Issued By: WFO Springfield, MO Contact Information: contact.sgf@noaa.gov This product will be updated November 6, 2025 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/sgf/SGFDroughtMonitor for additional information. Required Slide 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Lower Midwest Drought Deepens and Expands Across the Ozarks Region Drought Intensity and Extent D3 (Extreme Drought): Most of Polk, Greene, Webster, Christian, Ozark, Douglas and far NE Taney and far southern Dallas Counties in Missouri D2 (Severe Drought): St. Clair, southern Benton, Cedar, eastern Vernon, eastern Barton, far northeastern Jasper, Hickory, Dallas, Dade, eastern Lawrence, northeast Barry, northern Stone, Taney, Wright, southeast Laclede, western Texas, southern Howell, Oregon, southeast Shannon, Maries, Miller, northern Phelps Counties in Missouri and areas surrounding D3 (Extreme Drought) impacted counties. ○D1 (Moderate Drought): eastern Bourbon, eastern Crawford, and Cherokee Counties in Kansas. Vernon, Barton, Jasper, Newton, Morgan, Cedar, Dade, Lawrence, northern Barry, Dallas, portions of Benton, Camden, Laclede, northern Howell, Shannon, eastern Dent, Pulaski, and portions of Texas and Phelps Counties in Missouri. ○D0: (Abnormally Dry): western Bourbon and western Crawford Counties in Kansas. All remaining portions of southern and central Missouri. Required Slide State Drought Monitor Link to Recent Change Maps Main Takeaways ● Drought has further expanded and worsened in southern and central Missouri. ● Drought conditions continue expanding westward into far eastern Kansas. Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to Recent Change Maps Main Takeaways We have progressed past flash drought and are now entering long-term drought conditions. West-central Missouri has seen the biggest increase in drought severity over the last 4 weeks. Precipitation Main Takeaways Precipitation has been generally below normal across southern Missouri and southeast Kansas over the last 30 days. A portion of far southwest Missouri saw above-normal precipitation within the last 30 days. Required Slide Link to HPRCC Temperature Main Takeaways Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts ● A number of locations are seeing below normal streamflows, with reports of small creeks, streams, and ponds nearly dried up. Agricultural Impacts ● 20 Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMORs) from the last 7 days indicate severely dry conditions. ○ Supplementing feed and feeding hay early (some for 60+ days already) with dead grass and little to no regrowth ○ Lack of water for livestock requiring water hauling, reduced water quality where water remains ○ Decreased stock weights, animal stress and livestock mortality, and farmers selling livestock to reduce hay and water consumption ○ Early crop harvests, crop stress and failures, reduced crop yields, increases in invasive insects, erosion (no-till practices not helping), inability to plant fall forage for lack of moisture ○ Farmers report “going into winter this low [on water and feed] is going to be a major issue” Fire Hazard Impacts ● Increased risk of fires and potential early onset of fall fire season due to below normal precipitation, above normal temperatures, and dry soils. Other Impacts ● There are no known impacts at this time. Mitigation actions Many farmers and ranchers continued to haul water for livestock, supplement feed and herd culling is occuring. The Missouri Department of Agriculture has an AgriStress Helpline at 833-897-2474. More information is available at muext.us/PSCFarmRanch. Required Slide Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Main Takeaways Streamflow percentiles over the past 7 days were near normal across most of the area, with a few locations seeing below normal streamflow. Image Caption: : USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map - Kansas. Image Caption: : USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map - Missouri. https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?m=pa07d_nwc&r=ks&w=map https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?id=pa07d&sid=w__map%7Cm__pa07d_nwc&r=mo Agricultural Impacts Main Takeaways October 15th soil moisture was below to well below average across much of the area, with portions of central Missouri seeing well below average soil moisture. October 5-11th Crop Moisture Index was near to slightly below normal for portions of the Ozarks. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.rank.daily.gif https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/cmi.gif Fire Hazard Impacts Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Main Takeaways Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Main Takeaway Best chances for measurable rainfall through Thursday, October 22 will be on Saturday, October 18th. Rain chances (30-80%) will be associated with a cold front that is expected to move through the region quickly. Depending on the speed of the system, rainfall amounts between 0.5” and 1.00” are forecast. It is possible that some locations see less than a 0.10”. Rain will be hard to come by after this weekends system. Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. Main Takeaways Summarize conditions and impacts here 8 to 14 Day Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Main Takeaways Above normal temperatures and equal chances for below/above normal precipitation. Monthly Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Main Takeaways Leaning above normal temperatures and equal chances for below/above normal precipitation. Seasonal Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Main Takeaways Leaning above normal temperatures and equal chances for below/above normal precipitation. Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook | Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Main Takeaways Drought persists with further development from November through January. Required Slide Additional Drought Resources For Additional Information NWS Springfield Webpage | IDSS Point Forecasts NWS Springfield Drought Monitor Resources Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook Missouri Drought Monitor | Kansas Drought Monitor Drought Monitor Archive CPC Drought Information National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) Missouri USGS Streamflows | Kansas USGS Streamflows Drought Safety