Drought Information Statement for West Central and Southwest Florida Valid April 25, 2025 Issued By: WFO Tampa Bay Contact Information: sr-tbw.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated May 3, 2025 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/tbw/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/ for regional drought status updates. Below normal rainfall has occurred over the last few months, with Moderate (D1) to Severe (D2) drought conditions expanding, and now some Extreme (D3) drought conditions over portions of Sumter County. Drier than normal conditions are generally favored through the remainder of spring (through May), which is forecast to allow drought conditions to continue to persist or worsen across the area. U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Florida (https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/current/current_fl_trd.png) Drought intensity and Extent D3 (Extreme Drought): Has developed across northeast Sumter County and other locations in East Central and South Florida. D2 (Severe Drought): Continues across parts of the Nature Coast, and has been added to much of central and southwest Florida. D1 (Moderate Drought): Across the remainder of central Florida D0: (Abnormally Dry): Remains over parts of Levy and eastern Polk, as well as northern Pinellas and northwest Hillsborough counties. Recent Change in Drought Intensity (https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/chng/png/current/current_FL_chng_4W.png) Link to the latest 4-week change map for Florida Four Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: Across much of central and southwest Florida. No Change: The Nature Coast has remained unchanged. Drought Improved: Some improvement over parts of Levy and Citrus County, but this will likely be changing over the next few weeks. 90-Day Precipitation Over the last 90 days much of the region has seen less than 50% of normal rainfall. Links to the latest Precipitation Accumulation (https://storage.googleapis.com/noaa-nidis-drought-gov-data/current-conditions/nws-dgt-images/nws-90-day-precipitation-accumulations-(inches)-florida-coast.png) and Percent of Normal (https://storage.googleapis.com/noaa-nidis-drought-gov-data/current-conditions/nws-dgt-images/nws-90-day-percent-of-normal-precipitation-florida-coast.png) over the past 90 days Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR - https://droughtimpacts.unl.edu/Tools/ConditionMonitoringObservations.aspx) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter (https://www.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/46afe627bb60422f85944d70069c09cf) Hydrologic Impacts The latest 7-day average streamflow indicates an increase in locations reporting values that are below normal (10-24% of normal) to much below normal (<10% of normal), across west central and southwest Florida. (https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/?m=real&r=fl&w=map). Agricultural Impacts There are no known impacts at this time. Fire Hazard Impacts Burn bans are now in effect for much of West Central and Southwest Florida (FFS Map). Also, due to the drier conditions, the potential for significant wildland fires remains above normal for April, May and June. (https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive-services/outlooks) Other Impacts Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) values have been increasing across the region, with highest values ranging from 550-649 across most of central and southwest Florida. (https://fireweather.fdacs.gov/wx/kbdi_index.html) Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. USGS 7-day Average Streamflow HUC map for Florida Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Streamflows are continuing to fall as little if any rainfall has fallen over the last couple of weeks. Values averaged over the past 7 days are much below normal (<10%, dark red on map) over parts of Levy, Manatee and Sarasota Below normal (10-24% of normal, orange on map) are covering coastal parts of the Citrus, Hernando, Pasco and much of Pinellas Counties, as well as much of the central Florida peninsula. Image Caption: USGS 7-day average streamflow HUC map Valid 04/24/2025 Fire Hazard Impacts Burn bans are now in effect for much of West Central and Southwest Florida, excluding Levy, Citrus, and Hernando Counties The potential for significant wildland fires remains above normal. Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center (https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive-services/outlooks). Latest Florida Burn Ban map available here (https://ffsfm.maps.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/1f6572c92f8d41ec860f461ea433819b). Seven Day Precipitation Forecast A few showers are in the forecast for early next week, but overall rainfall amounts will remain less than 0.25 inch over the next week. Monthly Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/) Warm dry conditions are expected to persist through May with a 33-40% chance of below normal rainfall and a 40-60% chance of above normal temperatures. Seasonal Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/) Warm conditions are expected to persist for May through July with a 50-60% chance of above normal temperatures. Rainfall is expected to return with a 33-40% chance of above normal amounts during May through July. This is associated with the return of the Summer Thunderstorm Season, which usually begins in late May or early June. Seasonal Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/) The outlook through the remainder of April and into much of May is for drought conditions to generally persist or worsen across west central and southwest Florida, as chances lean toward below normal rainfall continuing through this period. However, as the wet season begins across the Florida peninsula (typically toward late May/early June), then drought conditions are forecast to gradually improve or even end by late July. Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/mdo_summary.php) Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/sdo_summary.php)