Drought Information Statement for West Central and Southwest Florida Valid May 1, 2025 Issued By: WFO Tampa Bay Contact Information: sr-tbw.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated by May 9, 2025, or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/tbw/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/ for regional drought status updates. Below normal rainfall has occurred over the last few months, with Moderate (D1) to Severe (D2) drought conditions expanding, and now some Extreme (D3) drought conditions over portions of Sumter and Lee Counties. Drier than normal conditions are generally favored through the remainder of spring (through May), which is forecast to allow drought conditions to continue to persist or worsen across the area. Enter the Valid date of this DGT, when then next update will be sent out, and update the headline/key messages section U.S. Drought Monitor Drought intensity and Extent D3 (Extreme Drought): Has expanded across some more of Sumter County and into southeast Lee County, as well as other locations in East Central and South Florida. D2 (Severe Drought): Continues across much of the Nature Coast, and has been expanded across much of central and southwest Florida. D1 (Moderate Drought): Across the remainder of central Florida D0: (Abnormally Dry): Remains over parts of Levy County. Recent Change in Drought Intensity Four Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: Across much of central and southwest Florida. No Change: Parts of Hernando and Pasco County has remained unchanged. 90-Day Precipitation Over the last 90 days most of the region has seen less than 50% of normal rainfall. Table of Accumulated Rainfall (inches) for Select Locations - November 1, 2024 to April 30, 2025 Precipitation The following table gives the rainfall from November 1, 2024 to April 30, 2025: Site Observed 30 Yr Dep fm Percent Station Id Rainfall Normal Normal of Normal Tampa Area TPA: 10.35 14.30 -3.95 72% St Pete/Clearwater PIE: 7.20 14.50 -7.30 50% St Petersburg Area SPG: 6.11 12.90 -6.79 47% NWS Ruskin TBW: 6.81 15.15 -8.34 45% Winter Haven Area GIF: 8.38 14.60 -6.22 57% Sarasota-Bradenton Area SRQ: 6.18 14.16 -7.98 44% Fort Myers/Page Field FMY: 7.21 12.40 -5.19 58% Fort Myers/SW Intl Apt RSW: 5.09 11.13 -6.04 46% Chiefland 5 SE CHIF1: 16.93 19.11 -2.18 89% Inverness 3 SE INVF1: 7.16 15.95 -8.79 45% Plant City PLCF1: 6.90 15.29 -8.39 45% Lakeland LLDF1: 7.67 15.74 -8.07 49% Bradenton 5 ESE BRAF1: 5.91 14.47 -8.56 41% Bartow BARF1: 5.11 13.97 -8.86 37% Archbold Bio Stn ACHF1: 7.55 13.61 -6.06 55% Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts The latest 7-day average streamflow indicates an increase in locations reporting values that are below normal (10-24% of normal) to much below normal (<10% of normal), across west central and southwest Florida. (https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/?m=real&r=fl&w=map). Agricultural Impacts There are no known impacts at this time. Fire Hazard Impacts Burn bans are now in effect for much of West Central and Southwest Florida (FFS Map). Also, due to the drier conditions, the potential for significant wildland fires remains above normal for April, May and June. (https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive-services/outlooks) Other Impacts Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) values have been increasing across the region, with highest values ranging from 550-699 across most of central and southwest Florida. (https://fireweather.fdacs.gov/wx/kbdi_index.html) Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. USGS 7-day Average Streamflow HUC map for Florida Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Streamflows are continuing to run below to much below normal in parts of West Central and Southwest Florida. Values averaged over the past 7 days are much below normal (<10%, dark red on map) over parts of Manatee and Sarasota Counties. Below normal (10-24% of normal, orange on map) are covering inland parts of the Citrus, Hernando, Pasco, and much of Sumter, Hillsborough and Manatee Counties, as well as parts of Pinellas and Charlotte Counties. Fire Hazard Impacts Burn bans are now in effect for all West Central and Southwest Florida, except for Levy County. The potential for significant wildland fires remains above normal. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are in the forecast for this weekend into early next week. Highest rainfall amounts are expected over the interior and eastern half of the Florida peninsula.. Monthly Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Updated May Outlook calling for equal chances of above, below, or near normal rainfall, and equal chances to a 33-40% chance of above normal temperatures. Seasonal Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Warm conditions are expected to persist for May through July with a 50-60% chance of above normal temperatures. Rainfall is expected to return with a 33-40% chance of above normal amounts during May through July. This is associated with the return of the Summer Thunderstorm Season, which usually begins in late May or early June. Seasonal Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage The outlook through May is for drought conditions to generally persist or worsen across west central and southwest Florida, as chances lean toward below normal rainfall continuing through this period. However, as the wet season begins across the Florida peninsula (typically toward late May/early June), then drought conditions are forecast to gradually improve or even end by late July.