Drought Information Statement for West Central and Southwest Florida Valid May 8, 2025 Issued By: WFO Tampa Bay Contact Information: sr-tbw.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated by May 16, 2025, or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/tbw/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/ for regional drought status updates. Below normal rainfall has occurred over the last several months, with Severe (D2) to Extreme (D3) drought conditions expanding across most of the region. Some much needed rainfall is expected this weekend into early next week which could alleviate some of the worst drought, but overall dry conditions are expected to continue until the summer thunderstorm season gets underway late this month or early June. U.S. Drought Monitor Drought intensity and Extent D3 (Extreme Drought): Continues across parts of Sumter County and has been expanded north from southwest Florida into inland portions of the Tampa Bay area. D2 (Severe Drought): Continues across much of the Nature Coast, and the rest of the Tampa Bay area. D1 (Moderate Drought): Across eastern parts of Levy County. D0: (Abnormally Dry): Remains over western and central parts of Levy County. Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 4-week change map for Florida Four Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: Across much of central and southwest Florida. No Change: Parts of Citrus, Hernando and Pasco Counties have remained unchanged (gray areas on map). 90-Day Precipitation Over the last 90 days most of the region has seen less than 50% of normal rainfall. Table of Accumulated Rainfall (inches) for Select Locations - November 1, 2024 to May 7, 2025 Precipitation The following table gives the rainfall from November 1, 2024 to May 7, 2025: Site Observed 30 Yr Dep fm Percent Station Id Rainfall Normal Normal of Normal Tampa Area TPA: 10.35 14.81 -4.46 70% St Pete/Clearwater PIE: 7.20 15.04 -7.84 48% St Petersburg Area SPG: 6.14 13.26 -7.12 46% NWS Ruskin TBW: 6.85 15.68 -8.83 44% Winter Haven Area GIF: 8.80 15.02 -6.22 59% Sarasota-Bradenton Area SRQ: 6.24 14.60 -8.36 43% Punta Gorda Area PGD: 6.65 13.89 -7.24 48% Fort Myers/Page Field FMY: 7.41 12.93 -5.52 57% Fort Myers/SW Intl Apt RSW: 5.19 11.56 -6.37 45% Chiefland 5 SE CHIF1: 17.68 19.63 -1.95 90% Inverness 3 SE INVF1: 7.16 16.41 -9.25 44% Plant City PLCF1: 6.90 15.87 -8.97 43% Lakeland LLDF1: 7.71 16.35 -8.64 47% Bradenton 5 ESE BRAF1: 5.91 15.06 -9.15 39% The following table gives the rainfall from November 1, 2024 to April 30, 2025: Site Observed 30 Yr Dep fm Percent Station Id Rainfall Normal Normal of Normal Bartow BARF1: 5.11 13.97 -8.86 37% Mountain Lake LWLF1: 7.72 14.28 -6.56 54% Myakka River St Pk MKCF1: 7.33 15.80 -8.47 46% Archbold Bio Stn ACHF1: 7.55 13.61 -6.06 55% USGS 7-day Average Streamflow HUC map for Florida Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Streamflows are continuing to run below to much below normal in parts of West Central and Southwest Florida. Values averaged over the past 7 days are much below normal (<10%, dark red on map) over parts of Hillsborough, Manatee and Sarasota Counties. Below normal (10-24% of normal, orange on map) streamflows are occuring in eastern parts of Hillsborough, western Polk, much of Manatee, Hardee, and Desoto Counties, as well as part Charlotte County. Fire Hazard Impacts Burn bans remain in effect for all West Central and Southwest Florida, except for Levy County. The potential for significant wildland fires remains above normal. Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts The latest 7-day average streamflow indicates an increase in locations reporting values that are below normal (10-24% of normal) to much below normal (<10% of normal), across central and southwest Florida. (https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/?m=real&r=fl&w=map). Agricultural Impacts Pastures and farmlands continue to dry out providing very little or no feed. Supplemental feeding is required to maintain livestock condition. Fire Hazard Impacts Burn bans remain in effect for most of West Central and Southwest Florida (FFS Map). Also, due to the drier conditions, the potential for significant wildland fires remains above normal for May and June. (https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive-services/outlooks) Other Impacts Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) values have been increasing across the region, with highest values ranging from 550-699 across most of central and southwest Florida. (https://fireweather.fdacs.gov/wx/kbdi_index.html) Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Numerous showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast for this weekend into early next week with rainfall amounts ranging from 2 to possibly 6 inches in some spots. Highest rainfall amounts are expected over the interior and eastern half of the Florida peninsula.. Monthly Outlooks May Outlook calling for equal chances of above, below, or near normal rainfall, and equal chances to a 33-40% chance of above normal temperatures. Seasonal Outlooks Warmer than normal conditions are expected to persist through July with a 50-60% chance of above normal temperatures. Rainfall is expected to return with a 33-40% chance of above normal amounts during May through July. This is associated with the return of the Summer Thunderstorm Season, which usually begins in late May or early June. Seasonal Drought Outlook The outlook through May is for drought conditions to generally persist or worsen across west central and southwest Florida, as chances lean toward below normal rainfall continuing through this period. However, as the wet season begins across the Florida peninsula (typically toward late May/early June), then drought conditions are forecast to gradually improve or even end by late July.