Drought Information Statement for West Central and Southwest Florida Valid May 22, 2025 Issued By: WFO Tampa Bay Contact Information: sr-tbw.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated by May 30, 2025, or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/tbw/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/ for regional drought status updates. Below normal rainfall has occurred over the last several months, with drought conditions across most of the region. Rainfall was below normal this past week, with the exception of portions of DeSoto and Highlands county. Predominantly dry conditions are expected to continue until the summer thunderstorm season gets underway in the next several weeks. U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Florida Drought intensity and Extent D3 (Extreme Drought): Continues across parts of southwest Florida. D2 (Severe Drought): Continues southeast of the Tampa Bay area. D1 (Moderate Drought): Across much of central areas and the nature coast. D0: (Abnormally Dry): A small sliver remains over eastern Levy County and along the Kissimmee River Valley. Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 4-week change map for Florida Four Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: Across most of southwest Florida. No Change to slight improvement: Much of the nature coast and interior peninsula (gray and green areas on map). 90-Day Precipitation Solely due heavy rainfall that fell in early May, above normal rainfall has occurred over the interior during the past 90 days. The remainder of the region has generally seen 50 to 75 percent of normal rainfall during the last 90 days. Table of Accumulated Rainfall (inches) for Select Locations - November 1, 2024 to May 21, 2025 The following table gives the rainfall from November 1, 2024 to May 21, 2025: Site Observed 30 Yr Dep fm Percent Station Id Rainfall Normal Normal of Normal Tampa Area TPA: 12.74 15.80 -3.06 81% St Pete/Clearwater PIE: 8.91 16.08 -7.17 55% St Petersburg Area SPG: 8.43 14.14 -5.71 60% NWS Ruskin TBW: 10.05 16.88 -6.83 60% Brooksville Area BKV: 8.77 16.36 -7.59 54% Winter Haven Area GIF: 11.75 16.01 -4.26 73% Sarasota-Bradenton Area SRQ: 7.86 15.53 -7.67 51% Punta Gorda Area PGD: 7.72 15.14 -7.42 51% Fort Myers/Page Field FMY: 10.37 14.26 -3.89 73% Fort Myers/SW Intl Apt RSW: 7.37 12.68 -5.31 58% Chiefland 5 SE CHIF1: 18.73 20.64 -1.91 91% Inverness 3 SE INVF1: 10.56 17.53 -6.97 60% Tarpon Springs TRPF1: 10.26 17.30 -7.04 59% Plant City PLCF1: 10.44 17.40 -6.96 60% Lakeland LLDF1: 11.36 17.86 -6.50 64% Bradenton 5 ESE BRAF1: 7.53 16.40 -8.87 46% Venice VNCF1: 8.78 15.82 -7.04 55% The following table gives the rainfall from November 1, 2024 to April 30, 2025: Site Observed 30 Yr Dep fm Percent Station Id Rainfall Normal Normal of Normal St. Leo STLF1: 6.49 16.07 -9.58 40% Bartow BARF1: 5.11 13.97 -8.86 37% Mountain Lake LWLF1: 7.72 14.28 -6.56 54% Myakka River St Pk MKCF1: 7.33 15.80 -8.47 46% Wauchula WAUF1: 6.37 14.47 -8.10 44% Archbold Bio Stn ACHF1: 7.55 13.61 -6.06 55% USGS 7-day Average Streamflow HUC map for Florida Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Rainfall in early May has allowed most streams to rise to near or above normal levels across West Central and Southwest Florida. This will likely be short lived as dry hot conditions have returned to the region. Fire Hazard Impacts Burn bans remain in effect for portions of West Central and Southwest Florida. The potential for significant wildland fires remains above normal. Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts The latest 7-day average streamflow remains near to above normal due heavy rainfall earlier this month. (https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/?m=real&r=fl&w=map). Agricultural Impacts Recent rainfall has yet to benefit pastures and farmlands, providing very little or no feed. Supplemental feeding is required to maintain livestock condition. Fire Hazard Impacts Burn bans remain in effect for portions of West Central and Southwest Florida (FFS Map). Due to longer term dry conditions, the potential for significant wildland fires remains above normal for May and June. (https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive-services/outlooks) Other Impacts Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) values have worsened across the region, with the highest values ranging from 500-549 across Manatee, Sarasota, and Charlotte counties…and 550-599 across Lee county. (https://fireweather.fdacs.gov/wx/kbdi_index.html) Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Highest rainfall totals are forecast to occur over the interior during the next week. Generally below normal rainfall is expected through the middle of next week. Monthly Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage The outlook for June calls for a 33-40% chance of above normal rainfall, and a 40-60% chance of above normal temperatures. Seasonal Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Warmer than normal conditions are expected to persist through August with a 50-60% chance of above normal temperatures. Rainfall is expected to return with a 40-50% chance of above normal amounts during June through August. This is associated with the return of the Summer Thunderstorm Season, which usually begins in late May or early June. Seasonal Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage The outlook through August is for drought conditions to end as the wet season gets underway across the Florida peninsula.