Drought Information Statement for Eastern Oklahoma and Northwestern Arkansas
Valid May 28, 2026
Issued By: National Weather Service Tulsa, OK
Contact Information: sr-tsa.webmaster@noaa.gov
This product will be updated July 2, 2026 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly.  
Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements.
Please visit https://www.weather.gov/tsa/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. 
Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates for regional drought status updates.
Drought and abnormally dry conditions still continue across the area.
Extreme (D3) Drought remains in eastern Choctaw County in southeastern Oklahoma 
Rainfall through June 2 may help to improve the drought situation across eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas.
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U.S. Drought Monitor
Drought intensity and Extent
D4 (Exceptional Drought): none
D3 (Extreme Drought): Choctaw County
D2 (Severe Drought): Mayes, Cherokee, Wagoner, Choctaw, Crawford, Franklin, Carroll, and Madison Counties
D1 (Moderate Drought): Osage, Pawnee, Creek, Tulsa, Washington OK, Nowata, Rogers, Mayes, Delaware, Wagoner, Muskogee, Okmulgee, Okfuskee, McIntosh, Pittsburg, Haskell, Cherokee, Adair, Sequoyah, Le Flore, Pushmataha, Choctaw, Benton, Carroll, Madison, Washington AR, Crawford, Sebastian, and Franklin Counties
D0: (Abnormally Dry): Washington OK, Nowata, Rogers, Craig, Mayes, Ottawa, Delaware, McIntosh, Okmulgee, Okfuskee, Pittsburg, Haskell, Latimer, Le Flore, Pushmataha, Choctaw, Benton, and Carroll Counties
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Precipitation
Over the last 30 days (ending at 7 am CDT May 28, 2026), rainfall totals have ranged from 1.5” to 10.5”, which corresponds to 25% to 180% of normal.

Over the last 90 days (ending at 7 am CDT May 28, 2026), rainfall totals have ranged from around 7” to 23”, which corresponds to 60%-160% of normal.

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Summary of Impacts
Hydrologic Impacts 
The current streamflow in a several rivers in the Arkansas River and Red River basins were below to much below normal as of May 28, 2026 according to the USGS.
Two USACE reservoirs in eastern OK and northwestern AR, Kaw Lake and Skiatook Lake, were below 3% of the top of their conservation pools as of May 28, 2026 (https://www.swt-wc.usace.army.mil/map/)

Agricultural Impacts
Poor pasture conditions remain in areas that have not received significant rainfall, though some areas have reported improvement in pasture conditions from the recent rainfall. (https://droughtimpacts.unl.edu/Tools/ConditionMonitoringObservations.aspx)

Fire Hazard Impacts
No burn bans were in effect across eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas.
No current increase in fire hazards across the area.

Other Impacts
There are no known impacts at this time

Mitigation Actions
None reported

Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts
The 5/28/2026 USGS streamflow (image on the right) was normal to much below normal for this date for most rivers across northeastern OK and northwestern AR, while the streamflow across southeastern OK into west central AR was normal to above normal.

River gages with Much Below Normal (less than 10th percentile) streamflows in eastern OK and northwestern AR:
Neosho River near Chouteau, OK
Arkansas River near Haskell, OK 
Baron Fork at Eldon, OK
Caney Creek near Barber, OK
Illinois River near Gore, OK
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Agricultural Impacts

May reports in Madison Co. and Sebastian Co. AR state that pastures are still not growing well and supplemental hay feeding of herds is required. Additionally, smaller creeks are running low.

A walnut farm in Benton Co. AR reported moderately dry pond levels mid-May and there is about 8”-10” left before the pond level becomes severe. 

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Seven Day Precipitation Forecast

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible across eastern OK and northwestern AR through June 2, 2026.

0.25” to 2.50” of total rainfall is currently forecast over the next 7 days.

Pockets of 3”-3.5” of total rain may occur in areas that receive repeated thunderstorm activity.


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Long-Range Outlooks
The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage

There is an equal chance for above, near, or below median precipitation across all of eastern OK and northwestern AR for June and for the June-August season. 

There is an enhanced chance for above normal temperatures across all of eastern OK and northwestern AR for June and for the June-August season.
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Drought Outlook
The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage
The Seasonal Drought Outlook for May 21 - August 31, 2026:

Drought is expected to persist across northeastern Oklahoma west of an Okmulgee to Claremore line.

Drought is expected to improve or end across the remainder of eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas.

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