Drought Information Statement for Eastern Oklahoma and Northwestern Arkansas
Valid July 2, 2026
Issued By: National Weather Service Tulsa, OK
Contact Information: sr-tsa.webmaster@noaa.gov
This product will be updated if extreme drought (D3) conditions return.  
Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements.
Please visit https://www.weather.gov/tsa/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. 
Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates for regional drought status updates.
Drought conditions are no longer present across eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas.
Some areas of Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions remain.
Several heavy rainfall events in June eliminated the drought.
This will be the final statement until extreme drought (D3) conditions return.
1

U.S. Drought Monitor
Drought intensity and Extent
D4 (Exceptional Drought): none
D3 (Extreme Drought): none
D2 (Severe Drought): none
D1 (Moderate Drought): small area in far western Franklin County AR
D0: (Abnormally Dry): Osage, Pawnee, Creek,  Choctaw, Carroll, Madison, Crawford, Sebastian, and Franklin Counties
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Precipitation
Over the last 30 days (ending at 7 am CDT July 2, 2026), rainfall totals have ranged from 3” to 20”, with most of eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas receiving 6”-10”. This corresponds to 60% to around 450% of normal, with most of the area 150% to 300% of normal.

Over the last 90 days (ending at 7 am CDT July 2, 2026), rainfall totals have ranged from around 11” to 36”, which corresponds to 70%-250% of normal.

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Summary of Impacts
Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter
Hydrologic Impacts 
The current streamflow is normal to much above normal as of July 2, 2026 according to the USGS.
Most USACE reservoirs in eastern OK and northwestern AR were utilizing more than 3% of their flood control pools as of June 30, 2026 (https://www.swt-wc.usace.army.mil/map/)

Agricultural Impacts
None reported (https://droughtimpacts.unl.edu/Tools/ConditionMonitoringObservations.aspx)

Fire Hazard Impacts
No burn bans were in effect across eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas.
No current increase in fire hazards across the area.

Other Impacts
There are no known impacts at this time

Mitigation Actions
None reported

Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts
The 7/02/2026 USGS streamflow (image on the right) was normal to much above normal for this date for all rivers across northeastern OK and northwestern AR.

USACE reservoirs north of I-40 were utilizing 14% to 60% of their flood control pools as of June 30, 2026.



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Agricultural Impacts

A late June report from a walnut farm in Benton Co. states ponds have returned to normal level, ground moisture penetration is 2”-3” (below which remains dry), and crop roots are sufficiently hydrated. Also noted was that the tick load is extremely high.

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Fire Hazard Impacts
No Burn Bans were in effect across eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas

Drought has led to very dry and high loading of fuels, worsening fire behavior.
Continued above normal fire occurrence and fire intensity was observed across the region due to the state of fuels and favorable fire weather conditions.
The fire environment across the area northwest of I-44 and west of Hwy 75 is primed for a continuation of above normal fire occurrence and fire intensity, especially during periods of elevated or higher fire weather


Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center.
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Seven Day Precipitation Forecast

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible across eastern OK and northwestern AR through June 9, 2026.

0.25” to 0.75” of total rainfall is currently forecast over the next 7 days.

Localized higher rain totals may occur in areas that receive thunderstorm activity.



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Long-Range Outlooks
The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage
There is an equal chance for above, near, or below median precipitation across all of eastern OK and northwestern AR for July.
For the July-September season, there is an equal chance for above, near, or below median precipitation across far northeastern OK and far northwestern AR, and a slightly enhanced chance for below median precipitation elsewhere. 

There is an enhanced chance for above normal temperatures across all of eastern OK and northwestern AR for July.
For the July-September season, there is an equal chance for above, near, and below normal temperatures northeast of a Ponca City, OK to Fort Smith, AR line, and an enhanced chance for above normal temperatures southwest of that line.
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Drought Outlook
The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage
The Seasonal Drought Outlook for June 30 - September 30, 2026:

Abnormally dry conditions are expected to persist.
 
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