Drought Information Statement for Eastern Oklahoma and Northwestern Arkansas Valid October 9, 2026 Issued By: National Weather Service Tulsa, OK Contact Information: sr-tsa.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated November 13, 2026 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/tsa/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates for regional drought status updates. Widespread drought conditions are impacting eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas. Exceptional Drought (D4) conditions continue in northwestern AR. Extreme Drought (D3) conditions are affecting many counties. Lack of rainfall and well above normal temperatures over the last 60 days led to this flash drought. 1 U.S. Drought Monitor D4 (Exceptional Drought): Benton, Crawford, and Sebastian Counties in northwest AR D3 (Extreme Drought): Craig, Mayes, Ottawa, Delaware, Adair, Sequoyah, Le Flore, Haskell, Muskogee, McIntosh, Okfuskee, Pushmataha, and Choctaw Counties in eastern OK and Benton, Washington, Carroll, Madison, Crawford, Sebastian, and Franklin Counties in northwest AR D2 (Severe Drought): Pawnee, Osage, Washington, Nowata, Craig, Ottawa, Rogers, Mayes, Tulsa, Creek, Wagoner, Cherokee, Delaware, Adair, Muskogee, Okmulgee, Okfuskee, McIntosh, Pittsburg, Latimer, Haskell, Le Flore, and Pushmataha Counties in eastern OK and Carroll, Madison, Sebastian, and Franklin Counties in northwest AR D1 (Moderate Drought): Pawnee, Osage, Creek, Tulsa, Washington, Rogers, Pittsburg, Latimer, and Pushmataha Counties in eastern OK D0: (Abnormally Dry): none {{DROUGHT_MONITOR}} Precipitation Over the last 30 days (ending at 7 am CDT October 9, 2026), rainfall totals have ranged from 0.5” to 6.5”, with most of eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas receiving 2”-4”. This corresponds to 10% to 180% of normal, with most of the area 50% to 90% of normal. Over the last 60 days (ending at 7 am CDT October 9, 2026), rainfall totals have ranged from around 1” to 7.5”, with most of the area receiving 2”-5.5”. This corresponds to 15%-100% of normal, with most of the area at 35%-65% of normal. {{PRECIPITATION}} Temperature Temperatures were well above normal for September and the beginning of October, with the monthly average temperature 10°F - 12°F above normal. September 2026 was the warmest September on record in Fayetteville, AR (since 1949), in Fort Smith, AR (since 1882), and in Tulsa, OK (since 1905). Fort Smith and Fayetteville, AR set new records for number of days in September ≥ 100°F {{TEMPERATURE}} Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts Numerous rivers had below normal streamflow or were not flowing at all as of October 9, 2026 according to the USGS. Many USACE reservoirs in eastern OK and northwestern AR were only utilizing 67%-92% of their conservation pools as of October 9, 2026 Agricultural Impacts Numerous reports across eastern OK and northwestern AR of widespread, severe agricultural impacts Many farmers and ranchers are reporting dried up ponds and fields, requiring supplemental feeding and hauling water for livestock. Fire Hazard Impacts Burn bans were in effect across a portion of eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas as of October 9, 2026. The Significant Wildland Fire Potential is above normal for eastern Oklahoma and all of Arkansas for November 2026. Other Impacts Trees are stressed or dying, and wildlife is looking for food and water. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts The 10/09/2026 USGS streamflow (image on the right) was normal to much below normal for this date for most rivers across northeastern OK and northwestern AR, and some rivers were not flowing at all. USGS gages that were much below normal: Flint Creek at Springtown and near West Siloam Springs White River near Fayetteville Arkansas River at Fort Smith James Fork near Hackett USGS gages that were at an all-time low for this day: Coal Creek at Tulsa USGS gages reporting no flow: Tar Creek near Commerce and at 22nd St Bridge at Miami Horse Creek near Afton Lee Creek near Short Frog Bayou and Jack Creek at Winfrey Black Fork near Page Kiamichi River near Big Cedar Most USACE reservoirs in the Arkansas, Canadian, lower Red, and upper White River Basins were operating at 67% to 92% of their conservation pools as of 10/09/2026. {{HYDROLOGIC}} Agricultural Impacts Numerous reports across eastern OK and northwestern AR of widespread, severe agricultural impacts: Dried up ponds, creeks, and springs, and wells going dry Poor water quality in ponds with some water Poor range conditions with most grass brittle/dying and of no nutritional value, requiring supplemental feeding for livestock Loss of soybean crops Poor growth and loss of calves/livestock A farmer in Benton Co. reported soil is dry down 8”. A farm in McIntosh Co. reported 10% of his cows and 10% of his calves died due to the drought and heat. A pond on his land that has not gone dry since it was built in 1940 is just mud now. Pastures are about 20% bare ground. {{AGRICULTURE}} Fire Hazard Impacts A few Burn Bans remained in effect for a portion of eastern OK and northwest AR as of October 9, 2026. Burn Bans in eastern OK: Haskell and Le Flore Counties Burn Bans in northwestern AR: Carroll and Madison Counties The Significant Wildland Fire Potential is above normal for Arkansas for October 2026 and above normal for eastern OK and Arkansas for November 2026. Rapid fire spread should be expected when fire weather parameters of warm temperatures, low relative humidity, and gusty winds are present. Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. {{FIRE_WEATHER}} Seven Day Precipitation Forecast The next chance for showers and thunderstorms is October 13-16, 2026, with the highest chances on the 14th and 15th. 0.50” to 2.5” of total rainfall is currently forecast over the next 7 days. Localized higher rain totals may occur in areas that have thunderstorm activity. Temperatures will be well above normal through October 15, with most locations running 10°F to 15°F above normal for this time of year. {{QPF_7_DAY}} Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage There is an enhanced chance for above median precipitation from southeastern OK into central OK, and an equal chance for above, near, or below median precipitation across the remainder of OK and northwestern AR for October 2026. For the October-December 2026 season, there is an enhanced chance for above median precipitation across all of eastern OK and northwestern AR. There is an equal chance for above, near, or below normal temperatures across all of eastern OK and northwestern AR for October 2026. For the October-December 2026 season, there is an equal chance for above, near, or below normal temperatures across all of eastern OK and northwestern AR. {{OUTLOOK_MONTHLY}} Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage The Seasonal Drought Outlook for September 30 - December 31, 2026: Drought conditions are expected to improve or end across all of eastern OK and northwestern AR. A very strong El Nino is forecast for this fall and winter, which can lead to a greater chance for rainfall events across the Southern Plains. {{OUTLOOK_DROUGHT_SEASONAL}}